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12:45 PM (Tuesday) | ***An active tropical scene in the Atlantic Basin likely to continue into September…MJO index pushing towards more active phases next couple of weeks***

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12:45 PM (Tuesday) | ***An active tropical scene in the Atlantic Basin likely to continue into September…MJO index pushing towards more active phases next couple of weeks***

Paul Dorian

Two tropical systems can be seen in the Atlantic Basin on the latest IR satellite image and a third wave is now situated over western Africa (circled regions). In the Pacific Ocean, Hurricane Genevieve (category 4) can be seen off the southwest coast of Mexico with a clearly visible “eye” (left edge of image). Image courtesy CIMSS/University of Wisconsin/NOAA

Two tropical systems can be seen in the Atlantic Basin on the latest IR satellite image and a third wave is now situated over western Africa (circled regions). In the Pacific Ocean, Hurricane Genevieve (category 4) can be seen off the southwest coast of Mexico with a clearly visible “eye” (left edge of image). Image courtesy CIMSS/University of Wisconsin/NOAA

Overview

There are currently two tropical systems in the Atlantic Basin which are being closely monitored and a third wave now located over the western part of Africa and there are suggestions that this active pattern will not ease up as we push through the remainder of August and into the early part of September.  An index known as the Madden-Julian Oscillation or MJO that tracks an eastward-moving tropical disturbance is likely to enter into “phases” that are usually quite active in the Atlantic Basin during this time of year.  In addition, the second half of August is climatologically a time of the year when tropical activity tends to ramp up on its own in the Atlantic Basin as sea surface temperatures are usually very warm and nearing their peak for the tropical season.

The Euro computer forecast model features an MJO index pushing into “phases” 1 and 2 in coming days and this usually results in “ramped-up” tropical activity for the Atlantic Basin. Map courtesy NOAA, ECMWF

The Euro computer forecast model features an MJO index pushing into “phases” 1 and 2 in coming days and this usually results in “ramped-up” tropical activity for the Atlantic Basin. Map courtesy NOAA, ECMWF

Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO)

The MJO index tracks a tropical disturbance that propagates eastward around the global tropics with a cycle on the order of 30-60 days. The MJO is often quite variable, with periods of moderate-to-strong activity followed by periods of little or no activity. The MJO influences tropical cyclone activity in both the eastern Pacific and in the Atlantic Basin during the Northern Hemisphere summer. Research has found that the location of the MJO, or phase, is linked with certain temperature and precipitation patterns around the world. The very latest MJO forecast from the European model propagates the MJO into phases 1 and 2 during the next couple of weeks and these tend to favor increased tropical activity in the Atlantic Basin. By combining many MJO events together into “composites”, we can see that sea level pressure is generally lower-than-normal in places like the Gulf of Mexico region and the Caribbean Sea when the MJO index is in phase 1 or 2.

“Composite” maps of sea level pressure anomalies are shown here based on numerous MJO events for the eight different “phases” of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). The boxed-in regions of phases 1 and 2 suggest lower-than-normal sea level pressure is typical in the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea during this time of year reflective of increased tropical activity. Map courtesy NOAA

“Composite” maps of sea level pressure anomalies are shown here based on numerous MJO events for the eight different “phases” of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). The boxed-in regions of phases 1 and 2 suggest lower-than-normal sea level pressure is typical in the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea during this time of year reflective of increased tropical activity. Map courtesy NOAA

Tropical activity

There is one tropical wave that is currently over the eastern part of the Caribbean Sea and it is moving fairly rapidly on a west-northwest track that could ultimately take it near the Yucatan Peninsula region of Mexico.  It is too early to tell if this system can eventually spill out into the western Gulf of Mexico and head towards Texas, but that possibility is certainly on the table.  A second system is currently located over the central tropical Atlantic and it is producing a concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms.  This system which is also moving along on a west-to-northwest track is likely to intensify over the next couple of days into a tropical depression as it churns over very warm waters of the tropical Atlantic.  Yet another tropical wave can be seen on satellite imagery over the western part of Africa and this is a possible longer-term threat; especially, when factoring in the forecasted trend of the Madden-Julian Oscillation index which suggests we are not anywhere near the end of the overall active weather pattern in the tropical Atlantic.

Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Perspecta, Inc.
perspectaweather.com

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categories Medium Range Outlooks
tags Featured