7:00 AM | ****Significant snow accumulations on the table from intense early weekend ocean storm****

6-Day forecast for the New York City metro region

Today

Mainly sunny, cold, highs near 30 degrees; Calm this morning, S-SE winds around 5 mph this afternoon

Tonight

Increasing clouds, quite cold, lows in the mid 20’s

Friday

Mainly cloudy, cold, chance of snow in the afternoon, mid 30’s for afternoon highs

Friday Night             

Mainly cloudy, cold, snow is likely, becoming breezy, mid-to-upper teens for late night lows           

Saturday

Mainly cloudy, quite cold, windy, periods of snow, low-to-mid 20’s; bitter cold at night

Sunday

Mainly sunny, quite cold, upper 20’s

Monday

Mainly sunny, cold, low-to-mid 30’s

Tuesday

Mainly sunny, not quite as cold, near 40 degrees

Discussion              

Many ingredients are going to come together that will allow for explosive intensification of a storm system over the western Atlantic Ocean between mid-day tomorrow and mid-day Saturday. In fact, it appears that this low pressure system may rather easily surpass the requirement of a central pressure drop of at least 24 millibars in a 24-hour period to be classified as a “bomb cyclone”. The ultimate track of the storm is still somewhat unclear at this time, but snow accumulations are likely in the Mid-Atlantic region from later tomorrow into Saturday. The preliminary estimate for snow accumulations across our region is 8-15 inches with the higher amounts in that range to the south and east and the lesser amounts to the north and west. A couple of notes, there is likely to be a sharp snow accumulation gradient with this storm and a small shift in the currently projected storm track can make a big difference in these preliminary snowfall estimates…i.e., still a fluid situation so stay tuned.

Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Arcfield Weather