7:00 AM | ****Soaking rain event with strong winds from Thursday into Friday...can begin as a wintry mix...dramatic Arctic frontal passage on Friday afternoon...very cold Christmas weekend****

6-Day forecast for the New York City metro region

Today

Mainly sunny, cold, highs in the upper 30’s; NW winds around 5-10 mph

Tonight

Mainly clear, quite cold, lows in the low-to-mid 20’s

Wednesday

Mainly sunny, cold, near 40 degrees for afternoon highs

Wednesday Night             

Becoming mainly cloudy, cold, upper 20’s for late night lows  

Thursday

Mainly cloudy, becoming breezy and turning milder, occasional rain that can begin briefly as a period of snow and/or ice in some of the N/W suburbs, upper 40’s for highs by later in the day; rainy and windy on Thursday night

Friday

Mainly cloudy, very windy and mild, additional rainfall during the morning hours, temperatures likely to peak in the 50’s early in the day; an early-to-mid afternoon Arctic frontal passage is expected which could result in a “flash-freeze”, powerful wind gusts, plunging temperatures and maybe even a burst of snow with small accumulations

Saturday

Mainly sunny, windy, very cold, low-to-mid 20’s

Sunday

Mainly sunny, brisk, very cold, low-to-mid 20’s

Discussion              

A major Arctic outbreak reached the northern US on Monday and the surface front marking the leading edge of this air mass will likely makes its arrival here on Friday afternoon. Before we get there, a soaking rainfall event is likely here from early Thursday into early Friday and it’ll turn very windy and noticeably milder. In fact, on Friday morning – ahead of the advancing Arctic frontal system – temperatures could peak in the 50’s and winds will be quite strong from a south-to-southeast direction.

Following the passage of the Arctic front on Friday afternoon, winds will remain strong shifting to a W-NW direction and temperatures will plunge by as much as 25 or 30 degrees in just a couple of hours. This sharp drop in temperatures can lead to a “flash freeze” of any lingering wet spots on roadways. In addition, a burst of snow is possible immediately following the frontal passage which can even put down small accumulations in some spots as the Arctic air pours into the region in a still very unstable atmosphere. Christmas Eve (Saturday) and Christmas Day (Sunday) will be very cold throughout the eastern US with some of the coldest weather conditions for these two days in many years. Single digits are on the table in suburban locations both on Saturday morning and again on Sunday morning.

Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Arcfield Weather