10:15 AM (Tuesday) | ****Major Hurricane Milton likely makes landfall on Wednesday night near Tampa Bay****

The past several hours has featured some weakening of Hurricane Milton from its peak intensity on Monday as a strong category 5 system. The eye is less well defined today when compared to Monday at its peak intensity time. There can be some intensification today as Hurricane Milton pushes farther away from the Yucatan Peninsula region of Mexico. Images courtesy NOAA (GOES-East)

Overview

Hurricane Milton intensified rapidly on Monday reaching category 5 status with maximum sustained winds as high as 180 mph and a central pressure that dropped all the way down to 897 millibars (26.44 inches). There has been some weakening in the overnight hours and during the early hours of Tuesday with the latest measurements featuring maximum sustained winds of 145 mph (category 4) and the central pressure of Milton has risen more than 30 millibars since the low point on Monday of 929 millibars (27.43 inches). Hurricane Milton will gradually take a turn to the northeast during the next 12-24 hours and likely make a landfall on Wednesday night somewhere near the Tampa Bay region of Florida’s Gulf coast. After landfall, Hurricane Milton will cross the state as a hurricane and then emerge later Thursday out over the open waters of the southwestern Atlantic Ocean.

NOAA’s hurricane model known as the HAFS-A places landfall of Hurricane Milton somewhere right near Tampa Bay as of late Wednesday night/early Thursday morning. Map courtesy NOAA, Weather Bell Analytics

Details

Hurricane Milton has been a relatively small tropical storm system so far in its life cycle, but that is likely to change during the next 24-36 hours. As is somewhat common with small systems, there can be dramatic changes in overall intensity in short periods of time. On Monday, Hurricane Milton underwent an explosive intensification phase climbing from a category 1 storm to a category 5 in just a matter of hours...just falling short of the rapid intensification of Hurricane Wilma during late October 2005. On Monday, the central pressure of Milton bottomed out at 897 millibars which is behind only two other Atlantic Basin hurricanes since 1979 (Mitch in 1998, Wilma in 2005) that featured lower central pressures during the month of October (credit Philip Klotzbach, CSU meteorologist).

Hurricane Milton underwent rapid intensification on Monday bringing it from a category 1 to a category 5 classification in just a matter of hours….this has not seen in this general region since Hurricane Wilma of 2005. Plot courtesy NOAA, Axios (Thomas Oide)

Hurricane Milton weakened in the overnight hours and during the early hours of Tuesday for a couple of reasons. The first reason is that the center of Hurricane Milton came quite close to the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico and, as such, it was able to draw in some drier (continental) air into its southeastern quadrant. Also, Hurricane Milton has been going through an “eyewall replacement cycle” - quite typical of strong hurricanes - suggesting a new eyewall has developed outside of the original. When the new eyewall takes over, the eye tends to become larger and some intensity may be lost during this process. In this case, the central pressure of Hurricane Milton dropped quite a bit during the past 12-18 hours from 897 millibars late yesterday to the current reading of 929 millibars. As Hurricane Milton pushes away from the Yucatan Peninsula today, and the new eyewall becomes better established, it can regain some strength from its current category 4 designation...potentially returning to a category 5 classification.

Peak storm surge is most likely near and to the right of the landfalling location of the hurricane which, in this case, could put Tampa in the zone of 10-15 feet. Map courtesy NOAA/NHC

On Wednesday, a turn to the northeast is likely as Milton moves between a trough digging into the Gulf of Mexico and high pressure ridge near the Greater Antilles. This change of direction will bring Hurricane Milton on a track towards the Tampa Bay region of Florida’s Gulf coast. Landfall somewhere near Tampa Bay is likely sometime between the late evening hours on Wednesday and wee hours of Thursday morning. There is the possibility of some weakening in the hours just before landfall as vertical wind shear will tend to rise across the eastern Gulf of Mexico; nonetheless, a landfall as a “major” hurricane is certainly on the table. Hurricane Milton is likely to then cross over the state - still categorized as a hurricane - bringing damaging winds and flooding rainfall to the central and eastern parts of the state’s mid-section. Once Milton exits Florida’s east coast later on Thursday, it is likely to drop down to “tropical storm” status over the western Atlantic Ocean and potentially, can have an impact on the island of Bermuda this weekend.

La Nina tropical seasons are often dominated by activity focused in the Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean Sea and this season has supported that finding. Map courtesy Eric Webb (X)

A landfall near Tampa Bay on Wednesday night/early Thursday would put that area in the zone with the “peak storm surge”...potentially as high as 10-15 feet. The storm surge is typically highest to the right of a landfalling hurricane due to the “additive” effects of the storms forward speed and the powerful surface winds that blow counterclockwise around low pressure systems and, in this case, the surface winds would push water into Tampa Bay from the Gulf of Mexico. A landfall just to the south of Tampa Bay – a scenario still on the table – would likely result in the most significant storm surge down the Gulf coast a bit in places like Sarasota.

The tracks are shown here of two hurricanes in the past that had direct hits on the Tampa Bay region of Florida’s Gulf coast; October 1921 (left), September 1848 (right).

From a historical point of view, Hurricane Milton is in rare company when it comes to storm tracks that take a system from the southwestern Gulf of Mexico to Florida’s west-central coast...not unprecedented, but it doesn’t happen too often. As far as direct hits go in Tampa with “major” hurricanes, those occurrences are rather infrequent as well. One such storm took place in 1921 with a track that took it from the Caribbean Sea to the zone between western Cuba and Yucatan Peninsula, and then a turn to the northeast brought it right into Tampa. Another landfalling “major” hurricane that had a direct hit on Tampa took place back in 1848 with a track that mimics Milton i.e., taking it from the southwestern Gulf of Mexico to the eastern Gulf.

Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Arcfield
arcfieldweather.com

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