For the second time this month, the sun has gone completely blank. On June 4th, the sun went completely spotless for the first time since 2011 and that quiet spell lasted for about 4 days. Sunspot regions then reappeared for the next few weeks on a sporadic basis, but are once again completely missing from the surface of the sun. The blank sun is a sign that the next solar minimum is approaching and there will be an increasing number of spotless days over the next few years. At first, the blankness will stretch for just a few days at a time, then it’ll continue for weeks at a time, and finally it should last for months at a time when the sunspot cycle reaches its nadir. The next solar minimum phase is expected to take place around 2019 or 2020. The current solar cycle is the 24th since 1755 when extensive recording of solar sunspot activity began and is the weakest in more than a century with the fewest sunspots since cycle 14 peaked in February 1906.
Read More
The collapse of El Nino in the tropical Pacific Ocean has continued throughout the spring season and it should evolve into La Nina conditions by the fall of this year. El Nino is a naturally occurring oceanic cycle that produces warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the equatorial Pacific Ocean whereas La Nina is associated with colder-than-normal SSTs. This now fading El Nino event reached its peak intensity level during December 2015 and rivaled in intensity some of the strongest El Nino’s of the past 50 years including those of 1997-1998 and 1982-1983. El Nino had widespread consequences on weather and climate around the world including a spike in global temperatures and – if history is any guide – its demise and the eventual flip to La Nina will have important consequences as well. In fact, global temperatures have already been dropping noticeably during the past couple of months - typical of post El Nino time periods – and should continue to do so for the foreseeable future as La Nina becomes well established.
Read More
The sun has gone completely blank. This may not last too long, but at least for now, there are no visible sunspots – a sure sign of an approaching solar minimum - and this is the first spotless day on the sun since 2014. In fact, there has been only one spotless day on the sun since 2011 – until today that is. The current solar cycle is the 24th since 1755 when extensive recording of solar sunspot activity began. Solar cycle number 24 is the weakest solar cycle in more than a century with the fewest sunspots since cycle 14 peaked in February 1906.
Read More
The “official” Atlantic Basin hurricane season has just begun and it may be more active than recent years and also compared to normal (tropical outlook), but so far the tornado season in the US has been below-normal which continues a trend over the past several years. Through the end of May, the preliminary number of tornadoes reported across the US is 605 and this compares to the 10-year normal of 788. This below-normal reading at the end of May comes despite a quick start to above-normal levels early in the year following a somewhat unusual large outbreak of tornadoes during the month of February. Fortunately, it has not been since 2011 in which the US actually had an above-normal number of tornadoes at this time of year.
Read More
The “official” Atlantic Basin hurricane season begins on June 1st and it is likely to feature more activity than normal and more activity than seen in recent years which have been relatively quiet. The major factors involved with the "2016 Tropical and Mid-Atlantic Summertime Outlook" include a quickly weakening El Nino in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, the likelihood for the onset of La Nina by later in the summer, and the current sea surface temperature pattern across the tropical Atlantic Ocean. In a typical Atlantic Basin tropical season, there are about 12 named storms with 6 or 7 reaching hurricane status and only 2 or 3 actually reaching "major" status (i.e., category 3, 4 or 5). Amazingly, the US has not been struck by a major hurricane since 2005 – the longest such streak by far since 1900 – and this season will most likely present at least a few challenges for that streak to continue.
Read More
In addition to solar cycles, temperature cycles in the planet’s oceans play critical roles in our ever changing climate and also on the extent of global sea ice. Oceanic temperature cycles are often quite long-lasting and a warm or cold phase can persist for two or three decades at a time. In general, the Atlantic Ocean experienced a cold phase from the early 1960’s to the mid 1990’s at which time it flipped to a warm phase and that has continued for the most part ever since. The current warm phase; however, is now showing early signs of a possible long-term shift back to colder-than-normal sea surface temperatures (SST) and this could have serious implications on US climate and sea ice areal extent in the Northern Hemisphere.
Read More
In a typical Atlantic Basin tropical season, there are about 12 named storms with 6 or 7 reaching hurricane status and only 2 or 3 actually reaching "major" status (i.e., category 3, 4 or 5). Based on six analog years chosen in large part for their similar "El Nino-to-La Nina" transitions, this year may feature slightly above normal tropical activity in the Atlantic Basin with around 14 named storms, 7 reaching hurricane level, and 3 attaining “major” status. While this would be a slightly above normal season - and noticeably more active than recent relatively quiet years - it is not likely to turn out to be a mega-year given among other reasons the numerous cold pockets of water across the Atlantic Ocean.
Based on the chosen six analog years, odds favor a hot summer in the Mid-Atlantic region with temperatures averaging 1-2 degrees (F) above normal and also a drier-than-normal summer with rainfall totals some 2-4 inches below the June/July/August standards. The good news is that soil moisture content is in relatively decent shape in this area - despite the recent dry spell - thanks to some early spring rains (and snow) and this should help reduce the chances for an excessive drought this summer despite the outlook for hot and dry conditions.
Read More
UPDATE - The source of global sea ice information cited in this posting was NOAA's National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). They are now reporting issues with the satellite data used to produce these images and this information was not known at the time of the writing of this article. Specifically, the vertically polarized 37 GHz channel (37V) of the Special Sensor Microwave Imager and Sounder (SSMIS) on the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) F-17 satellite that provides passive microwave brightness temperatures is evidently providing spurious data. As a result, the sea ice measurements and any related conclusions in this article are in question. We'll continue to monitor the situation and update as more details emerge. For now, NSIDC has suspended daily sea ice extent updates until further notice.
Original Story:
Overview
El Nino strengthened significantly during 2015 and peaked in December as one of the strongest such episodes in the past fifty years. Even though El Nino is a phenomenon characterized by unusually warm water in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, it can have ramifications around the world. In fact, global temperatures spiked during the last half of 2015 as a result of the strong El Nino and were still at very high levels relative-to-normal as recently as last month. In addition, global sea ice appeared to be impacted by El Nino as it took a steep dive during much of 2015 and remained at well below-normal levels going into this year. In the past couple of months, however, El Nino has begun to collapse and will likely flip to a moderate or strong La Nina (colder-than-normal water) by later this year. In rather quick and surprising fashion, global temperatures have seemingly responded to the unfolding collapse of El Nino and global sea ice has actually rebounded in recent weeks to near normal levels.
Read More
Alaska's Pavlof Volcano, which is about 600 miles southwest of Anchorage on the Aleutian Islands, erupted at 4:18 p.m. local time on Sunday, March 27th. The eruption sent ash 20,000 feet up in the air and prompted flight warnings according to authorities. Ash was seen generally moving north-to-northeast on infrared satellite imagery both immediately after the eruption (below) and earlier today (above). Seismic activity was also reported after the quake. A volcano alert warning remained in effect early Monday morning and the aviation warning color code remains red, its highest level.
Read More
The weakest solar cycle in more than a century continues to plunge towards the next solar minimum phase. There are currently two lonely sunspot regions visible on the sun (above) and the general trend for the next few years is likely to be for little in the way of solar activity as cycle 24 moves away from its maximum phase and towards the beginning (solar minimum) phase of solar cycle 25. In fact, there will be a growing chance for completely spotless days on the sun during the next few years as the next solar minimum phase is approached. There has been only one completely spotless day on the sun since 2011. The current solar cycle is the 24th since 1755 when extensive recording of solar sunspot activity began and is the weakest solar cycle with the fewest sunspots since cycle 14 peaked in February 1906.
Read More
