7:00 AM | Slow improvement today and then a real nice Saturday with plenty of sunshine and comfortable conditions; tornado reported yesterday in Montgomery County, MD with late day batch of storms

6-Day Forecast

Today

Clouds this morning with a couple of lingering showers then limited mid-day and afternoon sunshine, breezy, cool, highs in the upper 70’s

Tonight

Becoming mostly clear, cool, lows in the upper 50’s

Saturday

Mostly sunny, pleasant, near 80

Saturday Night

Mostly clear, cool, low 60’s

Sunday

Partly sunny, warm, chance of showers and thunderstorms late in the day and at night, mid 80's

Monday

Mostly cloudy, warm, humid, chance for showers and thunderstorms, mid 80’s

Tuesday

Mostly cloudy, warm, humid, chance for showers and thunderstorms, low-to-mid 80’s

Wednesday

Partly sunny, warm, near 80

Discussion

Strong low pressure will pull away from the region today, but there will still enough instability in the atmosphere for lingering showers before genuine clearing takes place in the overnight hours. Severe weather is not a threat today as it was TWICE on Thursday with one strong line of storms passing through the region in the mid-to-late morning hours and then a second batch of severe storms slammed the region late in the afternoon/early evening and a tornado was reported in Montgomery County, MD with that second set of storms.

Saturday promises to be a pleasant day in the Mid-Atlantic region with plenty of sunshine and comfortable temperatures and humidity. Clouds will increase on Sunday and the early part of next week will likely become unsettled once again with the chance for some shower and thunderstorm activity from later Sunday right through Tuesday.

Video

httpv://youtu.be/cAtCM56eN4M

7:00 AM | ***A wild weather day around here with heavy rain and the potential for severe weather***

6-Day Forecast

Today

Mostly cloudy, very warm, humid, occasional rain and possible severe thunderstorms, some of the rain will be heavy and any storm can produce damaging wind gusts, hail and even isolated tornadoes, highs in the upper 80’s

Tonight

Mostly cloudy, evening showers and thunderstorms likely, breezy, turning cooler late, lows in the upper 50’s

Friday

Partly sunny, breezy, cooler, chance for a few PM showers, mid-to-upper 70’s

Friday Night

Mostly clear, cool, upper 50’s

Saturday

Mostly sunny, pleasant, near 80

Sunday

Partly sunny, warm, showers possible by late in the day or at night, low-to-mid 80’s

Monday

Mostly cloudy, very warm, chance for showers and thunderstorms, mid-to-upper 80’s

Tuesday

Partly sunny, warm, chance for showers and thunderstorms, near 85

Discussion

A wild weather day is in store for the DC metro region with heavy rain likely and also the threat for a widespread severe weather event as multiple severe weather ingredients are coming together in the atmosphere. An unusually strong low pressure system will cross Pennsylvania today and reach the Mid-Atlantic coastline later this evening. From there, this strong low will ride northeast along the New England coastline early Friday in much the same fashion as a wintertime nor’easter. Rainfall around here today could end up reaching more than an inch and, given the saturated grounds, flash flooding could be the result in many locations. Any thunderstorm that forms today can produce damaging wind gusts, hail and even isolated tornadoes and there are likely to be two shots at severe weather - one in the AM and one in the late PM. Some improvement occurs on Friday as the storm pulls away from the region although a PM shower is possible, and then high pressure will generate nice conditions around here on Saturday.

Video

httpv://youtu.be/lpuLsTuzea8

1:30 PM | **Heavy rain in the Mid-Atlantic region on Thursday and potential widespread severe weather event**

Discussion

Ingredients are coming together for a possible large outbreak of severe thunderstorms in the Mid-Atlantic region on Thursday capable of producing damaging wind gusts, hail, torrential rains and even isolated tornadoes. The greatest chance for severe weather in the Mid-Atlantic region will likely be in the region from central New Jersey and east-central Pennsylvania southward to Virginia, Maryland and the Delmarva Peninsula which would include the metro regions of Philly, Baltimore and DC. There can be some shower and thunderstorm activity as early as late tonight in the Mid-Atlantic region, but the main action will occur on Thursday and Thursday night.

The severe weather ingredients coming together for this upcoming event include the following:

1) An intensifying and unusually strong low pressure system for this time of year (model forecast map on Facebook page)

2) Yet another unusual deep and cold upper level (500 mb) trough of low pressure

3) A strong low-level jet (850 mb) with 50 knot winds

4) An unusually strong high-level (250 mb) jet streak with 100 knot winds

5) Strong wind shear supportive of updraft rotation

Heavy rain on the order of 1-3 inches will raise the chances for flash flooding on Thursday as grounds are very saturated due to recent heavy rains throughout the region. Since the remains of Tropical Storm Andrea raced up the east coast last Friday, much of the Mid-Atlantic region has received more than 6 inches of accumulated rainfall. The strong low pressure system will head northeast along the New England coastline late tomorrow night into early Friday – much like a wintertime nor’easter. As a result, that part of the Northeast US could get “non-thunderstorm” winds of 50 knots or higher causing scattered power outages particularly in coastal New England and eastern Long Island.

Stay tuned.

7:00 AM | Severe weather possible on Thursday in the Mid-Atlantic region with the next significant rain event as powerful low pressure system heads east

6-Day Forecast

Today

Partly sunny, very warm, chance for showers and thunderstorms late in the day, highs in the upper 80’s

Tonight

Mostly cloudy, mild, chance for showers and thunderstorms, lows in the upper 60’s

Thursday

Mostly cloudy, very warm, humid, occasional rain and possible strong-to-severe thunderstorms, some of the rain will be heavy and any storm can produce damaging winds, hail and possibly even an isolated tornado, mid-to-upper 80’s

Thursday Night

Mostly cloudy, breezy, evening showers and thunderstorms likely, turning cooler late, upper 50’s by morning

Friday

Partly sunny, breezy, a bit cooler, a couple of showers possible, upper 70’s

Saturday

Mostly sunny, pleasantly warm, near 80

Sunday

Partly sunny, warm, chance for showers at the end of the day or at night, mid 80’s

Monday

Mostly cloudy, warm, chance for showers and thunderstorms, low-to-mid 80’s

Discussion

A wild weather day is in store for the Mid-Atlantic region on Thursday with heavy downpours likely and also the threat for strong-to-severe thunderstorms. Any storm that does form on Thursday can contain damaging wind gusts, hail, torrential rainfall, and even an isolated tornado is possible as multiple atmospheric ingredients will come together to create an active weather situation.

To begin with, an unusually strong and intensifying low pressure system will reach Pennsylvania tomorrow after heading eastward today across the Midwest and Ohio Valley. This storm will reach the Mid-Atlantic coast late tomorrow night and turn into a nor'easter type of storm for places like Long Island and New England generating heavy rainfall and strong winds with potential power outages up there. In addition to the strong and intensifying system at the surface on Thursday, the upper atmosphere will add fuel to the fire as there will be strong winds at multiple levels contributing to the unstable environment. Rain may actually begin later this evening and there can be a rumble of thunder or two in the overnight hours, but the main action will likely occur tomorrow into early tomorrow night. This still-developing system is likely to cause some severe weather activity today across the Midwest and Ohio Valley as it begins its trek to the east. The strong nor'easter will head northeast on Friday along the New England coastline and we'll experience some clearing here in the Mid-Atlantic region, but residual showers cannot be ruled out. Saturday promises to be a nice day as high pressure builds into the region, but clouds will increase on Sunday as another system heads our way in this active weather pattern.

Video

httpv://youtu.be/XWAWOnnrRAU

1:30 PM | Next significant rain event in the Mid-Atlantic region on Thursday could include some severe weather

Discussion

Another very energetic system is headed to the Mid-Atlantic region and it looks like it will bring a moderate-to-heavy rainfall to the area on Thursday as well as the chance for strong-to-severe thunderstorms. Many ingredients are likely to come together with this system to generate the threat of severe weather from the Ohio Valley on Wednesday to the Mid-Atlantic region on Thursday.

To begin with, there will be a strong surface low pressure system moving roughly west-to-east along Route I-80 over the next couple of days from the Ohio Valley on Wednesday to right across Pennsylvania on Thursday. This low pressure system will have some quite unusally low pressure readings associated with it for this time of year. An intensifying upper level trough at 500 millibars will be supporting this surface system by the time it reaches the Mid-Atlantic region on Thursday. Furthermore, a couple of jet streaks at different levels in the atmosphere will come together on Thursday in the Mid-Atlantic region to raise the chances for severe weather. One such jet will be in the low levels of the atmosphere (850 millibars) and it will be approaching Pennsylvania from the southwest by Thursday morning with some 60 knot winds. Simultaneously, a strong jet streak in the upper levels of the atmosphere (250 millibars) with winds in excess of 110 knots will be enhancing upward motion in the Mid-Atlantic region come Thursday morning as it crosses New England. Severe weather reports are likely to start rolling in on Wednesday from the Midwest and Ohio Valley with this developing system, and then all of the action shifts to the Mid-Atlantic region in the period from late Wednesday night to Thursday night. Stay tuned as we continue to monitor this upcoming event on Thursday that will feature more significant rain around here and possibly some severe weather.

7:00 AM | Another heavy rain threat comes to the region on Thursday along with severe weather possibilities

6-Day Forecast

Today

Partly sunny, warm, humid, chance for a few isolated showers during the mid-day and afternoon hours, highs in the low 80’s

Tonight

Partly cloudy, mild, lows in the mid 60’s

Wednesday

Partly sunny, very warm, chance for showers and thunderstorms late in the day, mid-to-upper 80’s

Wednesday Night

Mostly cloudy, mild, humid, chance for showers and thunderstorms, upper 60’s

Thursday

Mostly cloudy, humid, occasional showers and possibly a thunderstorm or two, some of the rain can be heavy late, low 80's

Friday

Becoming partly sunny, warm, cannot rule out a shower or two, near 80

Saturday

Mostly sunny, warm, near 80

Sunday

Mostly sunny, warm, showers possible at night, low 80’s

Discussion

Our unsettled weather pattern will continue in the Mid-Atlantic region for the foreseeable future and there is the likelihood for more heavy rain on Thursday along with the potential for some strong-to-severe thunderstorm activity. A warm frontal system passed through the area on Monday bringing with it heavy downpours and, while not nearly as numerous as yesterday, there can be a few isolated showers around today during the mid-day and afternoon hours. Any improvement in the weather that occurs on early Wednesday will be quickly replaced by a vigorous low pressure system by Thursday and this system is likely to bring some more downpours to the region along with possible strong-to-severe thunderstorms. Friday will bring some improvement to the region and the weekend will begin on a nice note as high pressure builds into the region, but more rain is likely early next week as the overall active pattern will continue.

Video

httpv://youtu.be/KsLJQDYG4Aw

7:20 PM | **Confirmed tornado near Sykesville, Maryland**

Discussion

UPDATE: AT 718 PM EDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS REPORTED NEAR SYKESVILLE... OR 12 MILES NORTHEAST OF DAMASCUS...AND WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. THIS TORNADO HAS BEEN CONFIRMED BY STATE OFFICIALS. DAMAGE HAS BEEN REPORTED WOODBINE WITH BUILDING AND TREE DAMAGE.

3:55 PM | *Heavy rain this evening in the Mid-Atlantic region and the threat for severe weather*

Discussion

An energetic system is combining with a very humid air mass to generate some very heavy bands of rainfall and the potential exists for severe weather including the threat for isolated tornadoes in the Mid-Atlantic region; especially, from southeastern Pennsylvania southward to the entire DC metro region. The threat for heavy downpours, which can drop a quick inch or two of additional rainfall on a given area, and the severe weather will exist right through the late evening hours and any downpour can produce flash flooding given the very heavy rainfall of recent days. Strong winds in the upper atmosphere are fueling this threat for severe weather throughout the Mid-Atlantic region over the next several hours. Looking ahead, there is the threat for more heavy rain and severe weather later this week in the Mid-Atlantic region.

7:00 AM | An unsettled and warm week for the Mid-Atlantic region with more heavy rain to deal with

6-Day Forecast

Today

Mostly cloudy, warm, occasional showers and maybe a few thunderstorms, some of the rain can be heavy, highs near 80 degrees

Tonight

Mostly cloudy, mild, occasional showers and maybe a few thunderstorms, some of the rain can be heavy, lows in the mid-to-upper 60’s

Tuesday

Partly sunny, warm, occasional showers and possibly a few thunderstorms, some of the rain can be heavy at times, low-to-mid 80’s

Tuesday Night

Partly cloudy, mild, mid 60’s

Wednesday

Mostly sunny, very warm, upper 80's

Thursday

Increasing clouds, warm, humid, chance for a couple of showers and thunderstorms late in the day or at night, low 80’s

Friday

Mostly sunny, warm, low-to-mid 80's

Saturday

Mostly sunny, warm, low-to-mid 80's

Discussion

The weather pattern remains unsettled this week with the threat for showers and thunderstorms much of the time until perhaps the end of the week when high pressure will finally take over. A warm front will try to work its way through the region today and this will cause occasional showers and maybe a few thunderstorms. Some of the rain that falls today and tonight can be on the heavy side and this will cause the chance for flash flooding situations given the heavy rainfall last Friday.

7:00 AM | *Deep tropical moisture rides right up the east coast today and tonight*

6-Day Forecast

Today

Mostly cloudy, humid, occasional showers and possibly a thunderstorm or two, some of the rain can be heavy, highs in the mid-to-upper 70’s

Tonight

Mostly cloudy, humid, occasional showers and possibly a thunderstorm or two, some of the rain can be heavy, mid-to-upper 60’s

Saturday

Mostly cloudy, warm, humid, residual morning showers possible, near 80

Saturday Night

Partly cloudy, mild, mid 60’s

Sunday

Partly sunny, warm, humid, low 80’s

Monday

Variable clouds, warm, humid, chance for showers and thunderstorms, low-to-mid 80’s

Tuesday

Partly sunny, warm, chance for showers, low-to-mid 80’s

Wednesday

Mainly sunny, more comfortable, near 80

Discussion

Deep moisture associated with Tropical Storm Andrea will ride up the east coast today and tonight and the result will be occasional showers and possibly a couple of thunderstorms - some of the rain will be heavy at times with 1-3 inches possible by early tomorrow along the I-95 corridor and eastward to the coastline. The tropical system will reach near the coastal section of New Jersey later tonight on its way to around Cape Cod, Massachusetts by early Saturday. While there can be some residual morning shower activity on Saturday, much of the day may turn out to be rain-free. Sunday promises to be a pretty decent day with some sunshine and warm conditions, but more rain is likely in the Mid-Atlantic region early next week.