12:00 PM | Where are the cicadas?

Discussion

Maybe there is a bug in the program. Weeks ago entomologists predicted the 17-year cicada would blanket much of the eastern US, but so far that hasn’t happened and there are serious doubts as to whether it ever will happen north of the Pennsylvania/Maryland border. So far, there have been no serious sightings of the cicadas north of around central and northern Virginia despite the fact that ground temperatures around here have certainly passed the threshold of 65 degrees which was a requirement for the bugs to emerge. One entomologist was quoted recently as saying “I’m at a loss, I really don’t have a good explanation why we haven’t had any”, but another held out some hope saying “I predicted mid-June at the earliest so I’m not truly surprised”. Time is running out, however, and the prevailing sentiment among bug experts seems to be that if you haven’t seen any cicadas by now you probably won’t see any at all. So much for the cicada taco recipe.

7:00 AM | Heat and humidity gradually build this weekend into early next week

6-Day Forecast

Today

Mostly sunny, comfortably warm, highs in the low 80’s

Tonight

Moonlit skies, mild, lows near 60 degrees

Saturday

Mostly sunny, warm, more humid, mid 80’s

Saturday Night

Moonlit skies, mild, mid 60’s

Sunday

Mostly sunny, warm, humid, chance for showers and thunderstorms, upper 80’s

Monday

Mostly sunny, very warm, humid, chance for showers and thunderstorms, near 90

Tuesday

Partly sunny, very warm, humid, chance for showers and thunderstorms, near 90

Wednesday

Partly sunny, very warm, humid, chance for showers and thunderstorms, near 90

Discussion

Canadian high pressure has settled in right over the Northeast US and it will continue to generate comfortable conditions around here today, but then the high slides off the coast later this weekend and that will allow for a gradual increase in heat and humidity in the Mid-Atlantic region. The warm and humid air mass that moves in later this weekend will stick around for much of next week and while most of the time will be rain-free, there will be an increasing chance for showers and thunderstorms.

Video

httpv://youtu.be/OEIu0C-GZJw

2:50 PM | The MJO index and possible tropical troubles in early-to-mid July

Discussion

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) index is raising the possibility of tropical troubles in the Atlantic Basin during the early-to-middle part of July and this could ultimately have an impact on the east coast. The MJO index tracks a tropical disturbance that propagates eastward around the global tropics with a cycle on the order of 30-60 days. The MJO has wide ranging impacts on the patterns of tropical and extratropical precipitation, atmospheric circulation, and surface temperatures around the global tropics and subtropics. Research has found that the location of the MJO, or phase, is linked with certain temperature and precipitation patterns around the world. The very latest MJO forecast from the European model propagates the MJO onto the doorstep of phase 2 right around July 4th and studies have shown that phases 2 and 3 tend to favor tropical activity in the Atlantic Basin. In fact, the last time the MJO index moved through phases 2 and 3 was in early June and it correlated quite well with Tropical Storm Andrea as it formed and ultimately rode right up the east coast in that time period.

7:00 AM | Humidity remains at comfortable levels today, but will be noticeably higher this weekend

6-Day Forecast

Today

Mostly sunny, comfortably warm, highs in the low 80’s

Tonight

Mostly clear, cool, lows near 60 degrees

Friday

Mostly sunny, warm, low 80’s

Friday Night

Mostly clear, cool, low 60’s

Saturday

Mostly sunny, warm, more humid, mid-to-upper 80’s

Sunday

Mostly sunny, very warm, humid, slight chance for showers and thunderstorms, upper 80’s

Monday

Partly sunny, very warm, humid, slight chance for showers and thunderstorms, near 90

Tuesday

Partly sunny, very warm, humid, slight chance for showers and thunderstorms, near 90

Discussion

Canadian high pressure has settled right over the Northeast US and it will continue to generate relatively comfortable conditions around here for the next couple of days. By the weekend, this high will slide off the east coast and this will promote a low-level flow of air out of the southwest and the result will be a gradual build-up of heat and humidity during the weekend. This change in air mass to more sultry weather conditions will stick around early next week and there will be a slight chance for late day pop-up showers and thunderstorms although most of the time will be rain-free.

Video

httpv://youtu.be/tsmlAlke6rc

11:15 AM | "Super-duper" moon this weekend

Discussion

The perigee (closest) full moon, which happens once every 14 months, is happening this weekend. To be exact, the full moon peaks on early Sunday morning (7:32am), June 23rd, and this full moon will be the closest and largest full moon of the year. In fact, this will be the moon’s closest encounter with Earth until August 2014. On Sunday, the moon will appear bigger and brighter and be about 221,824 miles away from Earth - which is roughly 30,000 miles closer than when it is at is farthest location way from Earth.

The term supermoon has been used to describe this upcoming full moon and it seems the going definition for supermoon, coined by an astrologer in the late 1970’s, is as follows: a new or full moon which occurs with the moon at or near (within 90% of) its closest approach to Earth in a given orbit (perigee). During a supermoon, the sun, Earth and moon are aligned with the Earth in the middle. Using this definition, there are 4-6 supermoons per year on average, but this year has only three (May, June and July) and the other two in 2013 did not (or will not) occur during a full moon. This month’s supermoon can be considered the supermoon among supermoons for 2013 or, if you want to sound more technical, a super-duper moon.

How about the effect on tides? Gravitational forces exerted on the Earth by the moon and sun cause our planet’s ocean tides to rise and fall and the high tide during this supermoon will be a couple of inches more than what it is during a normal moon. All full moons bring higher-than-normal tides and perigee full moons bring the highest (and lowest) tides of all. However, the boost in high tides is not likely to cause any flooding problems at the shore unless there happens to be a strong weather system to accentuate the effects – and this appears unlikely for the Mid-Atlantic region this weekend.

7:00 AM | More comfortable conditions today through Friday, but heat and humidity build noticeably this weekend

6-Day Forecast

Today

Partly-to-mostly sunny, more comfortable, highs near 80 degrees

Tonight

Mostly clear, cool, lows in the upper 50’s

Thursday

Mostly sunny, pleasantly warm, low 80's

Thursday Night

Mostly clear, cool, near 60

Friday

Mostly sunny, pleasantly warm, low 80’s

Saturday

Mostly sunny, very warm, more humid, mid-to-upper 80’s

Sunday

Partly sunny, very warm, humid, chance for showers and thunderstorms, near 90

Monday

Partly sunny, very warm, humid, chance for showers and thunderstorms, near 90

Discussion

A cool frontal system passed through the region late yesterday with heavy showers and embedded thunderstorms and high pressure will gradually build into the Mid-Atlantic region from the Great Lakes over the next couple of days. Temperatures and humidity levels will be on the comfortable side from today through Friday as the Canadian high pressure system settles right over the Mid-Atlantic region. Once the high shifts off the east coast at the end of the week, our low-level winds will become southwesterly and this will help to increase heat and humidity in the region during the upcoming weekend. High temperatures by late in the weekend and early next week will approach 90 degrees and the increase in humidity will likely help in the formation of pop-up showers and thunderstorms.

Elsewhere, there was a tornado yesterday afternoon that touched down for a brief time right near Denver International Airport. Winds were clocked at 97 mph at the airport, but little damage was reported as it stayed on the ground for only a very short time.

Video

httpv://youtu.be/nUuSCF0aDS0

11:50 AM | Heavy showers and embedded strong thunderstorms closing in at the noon hour

Discussion

The combination of low pressure and a cool front is generating a wide area of showers and embedded strong thunderstorms across West Virginia, much of Maryland and Virginia, and it is headed for the big cities along the I-95 corridor for the afternoon and early evening hours. Some of the rain will fall heavily at times beginning at mid-day across the Philly and DC metro regions and then in the early-to-mid afternoon hours across NYC, and there is likely to be occasional thunder mixed in up and down the I-95 corridor through the afternoon and into the early evening. Given the still saturated grounds throughout the Mid-Atlantic region, flash flooding is still a big concern as the soaking rainfall with torrential downpours moves in. Improvement occurs on Wednesday as Canadian high pressure builds into the Mid-Atlantic from the Great Lakes region and the second half of the week will be quite comfortable before heat and humidity increase noticeably during the upcoming weekend.

7:00 AM | Cool front to bring showers/thunderstorms to the region and some of the rain can be heavy; nice weather pattern for the second half of the week

6-Day Forecast

Today

Mostly cloudy, warm, humid, showers and thunderstorms likely later today and some of the rain can be heavy, highs in the low 80’s

Tonight

Mostly cloudy, mild, evening showers and thunderstorms likely and some of the rain can be heavy, lows near 65 degrees towards morning

Wednesday

Becoming partly sunny, more comfortable, near 80

Wednesday Night

Mostly clear, cool, upper 50’s

Thursday

Mostly sunny, pleasant, near 80

Friday

Mostly sunny, warm, low 80’s

Saturday

Partly sunny, very warm, humid, mid 80’s

Sunday

Partly sunny, hot, humid, chance for showers and thunderstorms late, near 90

Discussion

Low pressure will form along a cool front today as it approaches the Mid-Atlantic I-95 corridor and this will set off some shower and thunderstorm activity with some of the rain likely to be heavy at times. High pressure will build in behind the front later Wednesday and take control of the weather for the second half of the week with plenty of sunshine, comfortable temperatures and humidity levels in the Wednesday PM through Friday time period. Heat and humidity will build this weekend throughout the Mid-Atlantic region as high pressure shifts off the east coast with high temperatures likely to climb to near 90 degrees by Sunday afternoon.

Video

httpv://youtu.be/-hYtIcuEExI

7:00 AM | Unsettled to start the week, but the second half looks pretty nice

6-Day Forecast

Today

More clouds than sun, very warm, more humid, chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms, highs in the mid 80’s

Tonight

Mostly cloudy, mild, chance for showers and thunderstorms, fog possible late, lows in the mid-to-upper 60’s

Tuesday

Mostly cloudy, humid, very warm, showers and thunderstorms likely and some of the rain can be heavy, mid 80's

Tuesday Night

Mostly cloudy, mild, chance for showers and thunderstorms, low 60’s

Wednesday

Partly sunny, more comfortable, low 80's

Thursday

Mostly sunny, pleasant, near 80

Friday

Partly sunny, pleasantly warm, low 80’s

Saturday

Partly sunny, pleasantly warm, low-to-mid 80’s

Discussion

Another period of unsettled weather has begun in the Mid-Atlantic region as low pressure heads through the Great Lakes towards southeastern Canada over the next couple of days. A cool frontal system is likely to pass through the region later Tuesday trailing the center of the low pressure system and this frontal passage should usher in a quieter period of nice weather for the second half of the week as high pressure will build into the Mid-Atlantic region.

Video

httpv://youtu.be/XCKmKqHJijY

1:30 PM | Quite a wet June so far in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US - and more rain is on the way

Discussion

This is not a surprise to anyone who cuts their own grass, but it has been quite a wet month so far this June throughout the Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast US - thanks in large part to the remains of Tropical Storm Andrea that raced up the east coast one week ago today. Below is a listing of some impressive total June rainfall amounts at several nearby locations as we reach the halfway point of the month along with the normal values for mid-June. By the way, more rainfall is likely early next week so get the grass cut tomorrow when the weather will be quite nice.

Georgetown DE 9.22" (1.90" normal) Central Park NY 9.22" (2.08" normal) Wilmington DE 8.00" (1.69" normal) Bridgeport CT 7.95" (1.83" normal) Newark NJ 7.90" (1.83" normal) Islip LI NY 7.68" (2.02" normal) Philadelphia PA 7.26" (1.55" normal) Baltimore MD 6.76" (1.47" normal) Trenton NJ 6.57" (2.09" normal) Allentown PA 6.17" (1.86" normal) Washington DC 5.86" (1.63" normal) Atlantic City NJ 5.47" (1.42" normal) Reading PA 4.87" (1.79" normal) Salisbury MD 4.64" (1.54" normal) Scranton PA 3.04" (1.81" normal)