11:15 AM | No "gloom and doom" around here - wildfires, drought, heat waves, tornadoes all down this year across the US and the on-going break from major hurricane strikes has been historic

Discussion

Whether you’re talking about wildfires, drought, heat waves, tornadoes or hurricanes, weather-related disasters in the US are all down compared to recent years and if you have been in the “doom and gloom” forecast business then you must be quite disappointed.

To begin with, the actual number of wildfires across the US using year-to-date statistical comparisons (below) is currently the lowest it has been in the past ten years and the acreage involved is at the second lowest level in that same time period. The number of wildfires typically corresponds pretty well with heat and drought conditions and indeed the percentage of the contiguous US that is currently experiencing abnormally dry or drought conditions is around 57% which is considerably lower than the 79% recorded at this same time one year ago. Also, the number of nationwide high temperature records for this year is far below last year with 17,486 high max or high min temperature records as compared with nearly 50,000 at this same point one year ago.

In addition, barring a very surprising and abnormally active fall season, the number of tornado reports this year is on a pace quite likely well below those reported in all years going back to 2000 (below). Finally, as far as hurricanes are concerned, even though there has not been a hurricane yet this season, it is way too early to make any conclusions about this year’s Atlantic tropical season as the climatologically active time period is really just beginning (mid-August through September). It is noteworthy, however, to point out there has that there has not been a major hurricane strike (ie category 3, 4 or 5) in the US since October 2005 when Hurricane Wilma struck during that particular very active tropical season. In fact, this is the longest stretch without a major hurricane strike in the US since the Civil War - let’s hope that trend continues. By the way, just as a point of comparison, in 1954 the US was hit by 3 major hurricanes in less than 10 weeks.

Wildfires 2013 (1/1/13 - 8/9/13) Fires: 29,421 Acres: 2,587,916 2012 (1/1/12 - 8/9/12) Fires: 39,097 Acres: 4,938,791 2011 (1/1/11 - 8/9/11) Fires: 47,187 Acres: 6,320,510 2010 (1/1/10 - 8/9/10) Fires: 41,447 Acres: 2,153,282 2009 (1/1/09 - 8/9/09) Fires: 59,822 Acres: 4,928,612 2008 (1/1/08 - 8/9/08) Fires: 56,751 Acres: 3,985,545 2007 (1/1/07 - 8/9/07) Fires: 58,866 Acres: 5,460,184 2006 (1/1/06 - 8/9/06) Fires: 73,661 Acres: 5,954,944 2005 (1/1/05 - 8/9/05) Fires: 40,661 Acres: 5,248,877 2004 (1/1/03 - 8/9/04) Fires: 50,555 Acres: 5,606,786 Source: National Interagency Fire Center, http://www.nifc.gov/fireInfo/nfn.htm

Tornadoes 2013 712 (through Aug 9th) 2012 1119 2011 1894 2010 1543 2009 1305 2008 1685 2007 1102 2006 1117 2005 1262 2004 1820 2003 1374 2002 938 2001 1219 2000 1072 Source: NOAA, http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/monthly/newm.html

Drought information source: http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DM_tables.htm?conus

Heat wave information source: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/extremes/records/

7:00 AM | More showers and storms today as cool front closes in on the eastern states; weekend in pretty good shape with the on-going Perseid meteor shower

6-Day Forecast

Today

More clouds than sun, very warm, humid, mainly rain-free this morning then occasional showers and thunderstorms likely this afternoon, some of the rain will be heavy at times, highs in the mid-to-upper 80’s

Tonight

Mostly cloudy, muggy, chance for more showers and thunderstorms, lows in the lower 70’s

Saturday

Some sunshine, warm, gradual reduction in humidity levels, mid-to-upper 80’s

Saturday Night

Partly cloudy, turning cooler late, mid 60’s

Sunday

Partly sunny, comfortably warm, chance for a shower or thunderstorm, mid 80’s

Monday

Partly sunny, warm, chance for a shower or thunderstorm, mid 80’s

Tuesday

Partly sunny, warm, chance for showers and thunderstorms, low 80’s

Wednesday

Partly sunny, warm, chance for showers and thunderstorms, low 80’s

Discussion

A cool front will reach the east coast late tonight and this will generate more showers and thunderstorms in the Mid-Atlantic region to close out the work week. While there will be some rain-free time today, any rain that falls can come down heavily at times. The front should move just far enough to our south and east to promote clearing skies around here on Saturday, but clouds and showers could linger for awhile along coastal sections of the Delmarva Peninsula. One final note, while the Perseid meteor shower peaks on Monday night, there can be some meteors visible each weekend night especially given the expected favorable sky conditions.

Video

httpv://youtu.be/7BZgwnHw9U0

1:10 PM | The sun remains rather quiet despite approaching the solar maximum and a flip in its magnetic field

Discussion

The sun is the main driver of all weather and climate on Earth and it remains rather quiet in recent days despite the fact that something big is about to happen as we approach the expected solar maximum for this particular solar cycle. Indeed, according to recent measurements from NASA observatories, the sun’s vast magnetic field is about to flip with the sun’s north pole going from negative to positive and the south pole reversing from positive to negative. It looks like we may be about 3 or 4 months away from a complete magnetic field reversal on the sun which happens regularly at the peak of each solar cycle approximately every 11 years or so. The complete reversal will mark the midpoint of solar cycle 24 with half of the solar max period behind us and half yet to come. The typical process involved on the sun during this transition period first involves a weakening of the sun’s polar magnetic fields, then they go to zero, and then they emerge again with the opposite polarity – all a regular part of the solar cycle. While these transitions can stir up stormy space weather around our planet and cosmic rays can be affected, there is typically not a serious impact here on Earth from these solar magnetic field reversals.

Solar cycle 24 is now well over four years old and it continues to “underwhelm” and be on a pace that could make it the smallest sunspot cycle since Cycle 14 which peaked in February 1906. There is a growing feeling that, based on the recent inactivity, the peak may have already happened during the latter part of 2011. Another theory suggests that there may be a “double-peak” solar maximum for this cycle which would mean there could be a sharp spike in sunspot activity still to come later this year or in 2014.

Solar cycle 24 began after an unusually deep solar minimum that lasted from 2007 to 2009 which included more spotless days on the sun compared to any minimum in almost a century. While a weaker solar cycle does not rule out the threat for strong solar storms, it does suggest that they will occur less often than during the stronger and more active cycles. The increasingly likely outcome for a weak solar cycle continues the recent downward trend in sunspot cycle strength that began over twenty years ago with solar cycle 22. In addition, there are some solar scientists who are already predicting that the next cycle, 25, will be even weaker than this current one. According to some research studies, weak solar cycles with extended lengths may actually have a downward effect on global temperatures in the medium and longer range. Weak solar cycles tend to last longer than the strong ones. There have been historical periods with minimal sunspot activity that lasted for several decades such as from the mid 1600’s to the early 1700’s when the so-called “Maunder Minimum” occurred and this period was quite cold globally.

In addition to the cycles on the sun, of critical importance to weather and climate on Earth are our oceanic cycles. An interesting aspect to this apparent weakening solar cycle trend is that it looks like it will coincide with a cold phase of the northern Pacific – the largest ocean on Earth. The sea surface temperature anomalies in the northern Pacific Ocean are tracked through an index called the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). The PDO slipped into a negative (cold) phase a few years ago and these oceanic cycles can last for two or three decades. Global temperature anomalies have indeed trended downward over the past few years seemingly right after the PDO flipped to a negative (cold) phase. We’ll continue to periodically report on the latest solar activity here at “thesiweather.com” as well as the all-important oceanic cycles to monitor any important changes that may unfold.

Video

httpv://youtu.be/0Ao4GtkfbiY

7:00 AM | Warmer and more humid today, heavy showers and thunderstorms likely between later today and tomorrow night; weekend looking pretty good

6-Day Forecast

Today

More clouds than sun, warmer, humid, rain-free this morning then an occasional afternoon shower possible, maybe even a thunderstorm or two, some of the rain can be heavy late in the day, highs in the mid-to-upper 80’s

Tonight

Mostly cloudy, muggy, mild, showers and thunderstorms likely, some of the rain will be heavy at times, lows in the low 70’s

Friday

Mostly cloudy, very warm, humid, showers and thunderstorms likely, some of the rain will be heavy at times, mid-to-upper 80’s

Friday Night

Mostly cloudy, muggy, mild, showers and thunderstorms likely, some of the rain will be heavy at times, low 70’s

Saturday

Some sunshine, very warm, humid, still the chance for a lingering shower or thunderstorm, upper 80’s

Sunday

Partly sunny, warm, cannot rule out a shower or thunderstorm, mid 80’s

Monday

Partly sunny, warm, maybe a shower or thunderstorm, low-to-mid 80’s

Tuesday

Partly sunny, warm, maybe a shower or thunderstorm, low-to-mid 80’s

Discussion

Heavy showers and thunderstorms crossed Pennsylvania, West Virginia, northern Maryland and northern Virginia last night riding from west-to-east across a warm frontal boundary zone and there will be more heavy rain between later today and tomorrow night. In fact, much of the Mid-Atlantic region will see an inch or two of additional rainfall by later tomorrow night as a strong cool front reaches the east coast. That front should push all of the rain activity just far enough to our south and east this weekend to allow for pretty decent weather around here in the DC metro region although clouds and showers could hang on for awhile along the eastern shore and coastal sections of the Delmarva. Temperatures have been below normal during the past couple of days, but it should feel more like summer today and tomorrow as we are now in a “warm sector” air mass following the passage of a warm frontal system.

Video

httpv://youtu.be/0YrU_0IcPmQ

1:00 PM | Perseid meteor shower has begun and will peak Monday night/Tuesday morning

Discussion

The annual Perseid meteor shower has already begun and it will peak next Monday night and early Tuesday morning (8/12-13). The Perseid meteor shower comes every August as the Earth passes through a cloud of dust that comes from Comet Swift-Tuttle as it approaches the sun. Earth's gravity pulls in some of the chunks of debris — small rocks comprised of iron-nickel, stone, other minerals or a combination of these — which turn into bright balls of hot gas when entering Earth's atmosphere. As darkness falls, the meteors appear to come from the constellation Perseus, hence the name; although late in the evening, the meteors originate higher in the sky than the constellation.

Perseid meteoroids hit our atmosphere at ~132,000 mph to produce the annual light show and this particular meteor shower is usually rich in “fireballs” because of the size of the parent comet. Comet Swift-Tuttle has a huge nucleus – about 26 kilometers in diameter whereas most other comets are much smaller with nuclei only a few kilometers across. As a result, Comet Swift-Tuttle produces a large number of meteoroids, many of which are large enough to produce fireballs. In fact, the Perseid meteor shower is considered the “fireball champion” of all of the annual meteor showers.

The best time to look during the peak is between the hours of 11pm (Monday night) and 5am (Tuesday morning) far away from city lights. In dark locations with clear skies, the Perseid meteor rate could top 100 per hour. Typically, the meteors are only the size of pebbles, some as small as a grain of sand. This should be a good year for viewing, weather permitting, as there will be little interference from a waxing crescent moon. This year’s display is extra special because Jupiter, Venus and the crescent moon align just as the Perseids peak. The alignment occurs in the eastern sky before sunrise on the mornings of the highest meteor activity.

7:00 AM | Still cooler-than-normal today and the unsettled conditions will last right through the upcoming weekend

6-Day Forecast

Today

Mostly cloudy, still cooler-than-normal, an occasional shower possible, but most of the time will be rain-free, maybe a thunderstorm late, highs near 80 degrees

Tonight

Mostly cloudy, muggy, showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm, some of the rain can be heavy at times, lows in the upper 60’s

Thursday

Mostly cloudy, warmer, humid, showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm, some of the rain can be heavy, mid 80’s

Thursday Night

Mostly cloudy, muggy, chance for showers and thunderstorms, near 70

Friday

Mostly cloudy, warm, showers and thunderstorms likely, some of the rain can be heavy, mid-to-upper 80’s

Saturday

Becoming partly sunny, warm, still the threat for showers and thunderstorms, upper 80’s

Sunday

Partly sunny, warm, chance for showers and thunderstorms, mid 80’s

Monday

Partly sunny, warm, low 80’s

Discussion

Unsettled weather has returned to the Mid-Atlantic region and it looks like it may stick around right through the upcoming weekend. While much of the time will be rain-free over the next several days, showers and thunderstorms will threaten at just about any time and there most certainly will be some heavy rain during this extended stretch of unsettled weather. Temperatures will remain below normal today holding to near 80 degrees for afternoon highs and this will continue our cooler-than-normal beginning to the month of August. We'll warm up, however, on Thursday and Friday as we should get into the warm sector behind the passage of a warm frontal system.

Video

httpv://youtu.be/PsYhttW6g8Y

12:55 PM | "Sharknado" and some interesting related weather information

Discussion

We are now into “shark week” on the Discovery Channel and it wasn’t too long ago that the disaster film “Sharknado” aired on the Syfy channel. “Sharknado” is a disaster film about a freak hurricane that hits Los Angeles and causes sharks to be scooped up by waterspouts and deposits them in the city. It first aired on July 11th and quickly became a social media phenomenon. The film obviously doesn’t hold water in many weather-related areas, but there is some interesting, and perhaps somewhat surprising, information on the general subject matter.

To begin with, the premise of the movie is that a huge and powerful hurricane hits Los Angeles (Category 3 storm named David in the movie). While this has never happened in recorded history in the city of Los Angeles, it is not true to say that southern California has never been hit by a hurricane. In fact, way back in October of 1858, a Category 1 hurricane brought 80 mph winds to San Diego. [For a detailed paper on this storm go to this NOAA web site: http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Landsea/chenowethlandsea.pdf]. In more recent times, a 1939 tropical storm brought 52 mph winds to the coast south of Los Angeles, and caused $2 million in property damage--mostly to shipping, shore structures, power and communication lines, and crops. Forty-five lives were lost at sea during the storm. Hurricane Linda of 1997, which occurred during a strong El Niño event that significantly warmed the ocean waters along the Mexican Pacific coast, was forecast by the National Hurricane Center for a couple of advisories to make landfall near San Diego as a minimal hurricane or strong tropical storm. Category 5 Linda was the strongest hurricane ever observed in the Eastern Pacific Ocean, but weakened over cold water and turned out to sea without affecting Southern California. A Category 3 or stronger storm affecting Southern California, as depicted in "Sharknado", is pretty much impossible in the current climate, though. The California Current that flows southwards along the coast of California and Baja Mexico features waters temperatures that are too cold to support a major hurricane.

A second theme of the movie is that waterspouts swept up sharks and then deposited them in the city of Los Angeles. In fact, there have been numerous reports of waterspouts or tornadoes picking up fish out of the sea or out of lakes and creating a "rain of fish." For example, hundreds of perch bombarded residents of the small Australian outback town of Lajamanu in 2010. In the U.S., thousands of small fish, frogs and crayfish fell from the sky during a rainstorm at Magnolia Terminal near Thomasville, Alabama, on the morning of June 28, 1957. Many of the fish were alive and were placed in ponds and swimming pools. An EF2 tornado fifteen miles to the south spawned by the outer bands of Hurricane Audrey was likely responsible for getting the creatures airborne. William Corliss' intriguing book, "Handbook of Unusual Natural Phenomena", has an entire chapter devoted to unusual creatures and objects that have fallen from the sky. He relates that in 1946, a scientist at the American Museum of Natural History named E. W. Gudger documented 78 reliable reports of fish falls from all over the world. The largest fish was a large-mouthed bass 9 1/4 inches long, and the heaviest was a six pound fish that fell in India. There were no reports, however, of large, 2000-pound great white sharks, as depicted by "Sharknado".

By the way, Syfy was so pleased with the reaction to its original TV movie and how Twitter users devoured it, the network confirmed recently that there will be a "Sharknado 2." This time the fictional flying sharks will be attacking the Big Apple in a film set to premiere in 2014.

7:00 AM | Still below normal temperatures with occasional showers and possible thunderstorms

6-Day Forecast

Today

Mostly cloudy, still cooler-than-normal temperatures, showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm or two, highs in the upper 70’s

Tonight

Mostly cloudy, muggy, showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm, lows in the upper 60’s

Wednesday

Mostly cloudy, cool, humid, showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm, low 80's

Wednesday Night

Mostly cloudy, muggy, showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm, upper 60’s

Thursday

Mostly cloudy, warm, chance for showers and thunderstorms, low-to-mid 80’s

Friday

Mostly cloudy, warm, showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm, mid 80’s

Saturday

Becoming partly sunny, warm, mid-to-upper 80’s

Sunday

Mostly sunny, pleasant, low 80’s

Discussion

High pressure responsible for our spectacular weather of the past couple of days has moved off the east coast and this has opened the door for inclement weather to return to the Mid-Atlantic region. A slow-moving warm front is now approaching the Mid-Atlantic region and the result will be unsettled weather conditions from later today through tomorrow with occasional showers and possibly a couple of thunderstorms. The unsettled weather conditions will continue on Thursday and Friday as well. We'll be in the warm sector on Thursday so temperatures will be higher, but the threat for more showers and thunderstorms will continue. Then a weak cool front will approach the region on Friday with even more showers and thunderstorms likely in the region. There is certainly the chance for some heavy rain to get involved in this unsettled weather pattern between Wednesday and Friday night. Genuine clearing won’t arrive here until the weekend following the passage of another strong cool front.

Temperatures today will again remain well below the normal high of 88 degrees, but they will get closer to normal later this week only to fall back to below normal levels again by Sunday as yet another pleasant air mass reaches the northeastern states.

Video

httpv://youtu.be/TfbFbKg8bDg

7:00 AM | Great start to the week, but a wet second half; no extended hot weather in sight

6-Day Forecast

Today

Mostly sunny, pleasant, highs near 80 degrees

Tonight

Partly cloudy, cool, possible shower towards morning, lows in the low-to-mid 60's

Tuesday

Mostly cloudy, still cooler-than-normal temperatures, chance for showers and thunderstorms, near 80

Tuesday Night

Mostly cloudy, chance for showers, maybe a thunderstorm, mild, upper 60’s

Wednesday

Mostly cloudy, warm, humid, chance for showers and thunderstorms, low 80’s

Thursday

Partly sunny, warm, humid, maybe a shower or thunderstorm, mid 80’s

Friday

Mostly cloudy, warm, chance for showers and thunderstorms, mid 80’s

Saturday

Partly sunny, warm, mid 80’s

Discussion

The week will get off to a spectacular start with copious amounts of sunshine, pleasant temperatures and comfortable humidity levels. High pressure that originated in Canada will then lose control of the weather in the Mid-Atlantic region by early tomorrow. The threat for showers and thunderstorms will increase on Tuesday as a warm front presses northward from Virginia and the threat for showers and thunderstorms will continue for much of the second half of the week as we deal with another couple of fronts. In fact, genuine clearing probably won't take place around here until this weekend following the passage of yet another strong cool frontal system.

Looking farther ahead, there is no extended hot weather in sight and it not only looks cooler-than-normal in the Mid-Atlantic region for the month of August, but also for much of the nation. As far as the tropics are concerned, the remains of Tropical Storm Dorian came back to life somewhat this weekend regaining tropical depression status just off the southeast coast, but it has now completely dissipated over the Atlantic Ocean. There may be some tropical activity over the Gulf of Mexico within a week or so and look for the tropics to become quite active from mid-August through September.

Video

httpv://youtu.be/NOUV1OOicBM

7:00 AM | Sunshine and becoming less humid today; another cool front to deal with on Saturday

6-Day Forecast

Today

Mostly sunny, warm, becoming less humid, highs in the mid-to-upper 80’s

Tonight

Partly cloudy, mild, lows in the upper 60’s

Saturday

Mostly cloudy, more humid, chance for showers and thunderstorms, mid 80’s

Saturday Night

Mostly cloudy, still the chance for showers and thunderstorms, mild, mid 60’s

Sunday

Becoming mostly sunny, comfortable, near 80

Monday

Mainly sunny, very pleasant, near 80

Tuesday

Partly sunny, still comfortable, low 80’s

Wednesday

Partly sunny, pleasant, chance for showers and thunderstorms, low 80’s

Discussion

There will be much improvement in the weather today as sunshine combines with less humid air moving into the region behind yesterday’s cool frontal system. A secondary cool front will arrive later tomorrow along with the threat for more showers and thunderstorms. A very pleasant air mass will follow this next front for early next week with comfortable humidity levels and temperatures below normal for this time of year.

Video

httpv://youtu.be/whQWk_l0Du0