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Blog

Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information

Filtering by Category: DC

11:45 AM | Hard to believe, but apparently real photo from last week's NASA Wallops Island rocket launch

Paul Dorian

frog

Discussion

Here is a follow up story to the NASA rocket launch that took place last Friday night in Wallops Island, Virginia and it has to be put into the “hard to believe” category. Apparently, and NASA believes this is not a photograph stunt, a frog was sacrificed during the launch last week and its silhouette can be seen in the smoke of the 90-foot tall Minotaur 5 rocket that carried the Lunar Atmosphere and Dust Environment Explorer (LADEE) spacecraft to space. It turns out that this frog was simply in the wrong place at the wrong time sitting on or near the launch pad. The photograph was captured by a remote still camera and the photo team confirms that the frog is real and it was captured in a single frame.

Why was the frog hanging around this area? The Wallops Island facility sits among a wildlife refuge and the launch pad itself has a pool of water for the “high volume deluge system” that activates during launches to suppress noise and protect the pad from damage. Officially, NASA says the condition of the frog is uncertain, but “these kinds of things tend to not end well for amphibians”. No truth to the rumor that the creature’s last words were “orrrbit, orrrbit”.

7:00 AM | Summer weather replaced with a noticeable change to cooler and less humid conditions

Paul Dorian

6-Day Forecast

Today

A mix of clouds and sun, becoming quite breezy, noticeably cooler and less humid, highs in the mid-to-upper 70’s

Tonight

Mostly clear, chilly, breeze dies down late, lows by morning in the upper 40’s

Saturday

Mostly sunny, unseasonably cool, near 70

Saturday Night

Mostly clear, chilly, upper 40’s

Sunday

Mostly sunny, still comfortable, mid-to-upper 70’s

Monday

Mostly sunny, pleasant, mid-to-upper 70’s

Tuesday

Mostly sunny, cooler, low 70’s

Wednesday

Mostly sunny, still quite comfortable, mid 70’s

Discussion

A strong cool front is moving off the east coast this morning and Canadian high pressure will fill in from the Great Lakes region and control our weather this weekend. A quickly developing stiff northwest breeze will funnel in cooler and less humid air to the DC metro region today and highs will likely be confined to the mid or upper 70’s – a noticeable change from the past couple of days. Temperatures tonight will bottom out in the 40’s in many suburban locations and will do no better than abround 70 degrees for highs on Saturday. It’ll warm slightly for Sunday and Monday, but overall conditions will remain quite comfortable on those days, and then a reinforcing cool front will usher in more pleasant weather conditions by the middle of next week.

Video

httpv://youtu.be/zurQGjHIxzk

3:20 PM | *Strong-to-severe thunderstorm threat this evening from DC-to-Philly-to-NYC*

Paul Dorian

Discussion

Numerous showers and strong thunderstorms have developed from central Virginia to north-central Pennsylvania and they will head northeast over the next several hours ahead of a powerful cool frontal system. As a result, showers and strong-to-severe thunderstorms are possible in the region between 4 and 10PM and some of the storms will contain gusty winds, frequent lightning and heavy downpours. A widespread severe thunderstorm outbreak is not likely, but isolated instances of damaging winds (60+ mph) and hail are possible. Much cooler and less humid air pours into the region tomorrow, but we’ll have to pay the price first.

radar

1:00 PM | Band of showers and thunderstorms to affect the Baltimore and DC metro region early this afternoon

Paul Dorian

Discussion

An area of showers and thunderstorms that extends from Warrenton, VA to just west of Baltimore, MD is moving northeastward and it will affect parts of the DC and Baltimore metro regions between now and 3pm. This particular area of rain developed well ahead of a strong cool front that is currently located over the eastern Great Lakes and more showers and thunderstorms are possible later this afternoon into the evening. Any storm today can be on the strong side with gusty winds and brief downpours.

7:00 AM | Strong cool front brings showers and possible strong thunderstorms

Paul Dorian

6-Day Forecast

Today

Partly sunny, very warm and humid, showers and thunderstorms likely this afternoon and some of the storms can be strong with gusty winds and heavy rain, highs near 90 degrees

Tonight

Mostly cloudy, chance for evening showers and thunderstorms, turning cooler late, lows by morning in the lower 60’s

Friday

A mix of clouds and sun, breezy, noticeably cooler and less humid, near 75

Friday Night

Mostly clear, chilly, upper 40’s

Saturday

Mostly sunny, unseasonably cool, near 70

Sunday

Mostly sunny, still very pleasant, mid-to-upper 70’s

Monday

Mostly sunny, nice, mid-to-upper 70’s

Tuesday

Mostly sunny, comfortable, low-to-mid 70’s

Discussion

An approaching strong cool front will close in on the east coast by later tonight and the result will be showers and thunderstorms in the DC metro region at just about anytime from mid-day on and any storm that forms ahead of the front can be on the strong side with gusty winds and brief downpours. Temperatures today will be knocked down some compared to yesterday due to an abundance of clouds, but they should still manage to climb through the 80’s to go along with the continued uncomfortable humidity levels. Big changes will follow the frontal passage, however, for Friday and Saturday.

Canadian high pressure will edge eastward from the Great Lakes region on Friday generating a stiff and cooling north-to-northwest breeze in the Mid-Atlantic region with noticeably lower temperatures and humidity. By early Saturday morning, many Mid-Atlantic locations will experience low temperatures in the 40’s and the big cities along I-95 from DC to NYC will struggle to pass the 70 degree mark on Saturday afternoon. The pleasantly cool weather conditions will continue right into early next week as there should be a reinforcing Canadian high pressure system headed our way and it may turn out that yesterday is the last 90 degree day of the season in many Mid-Atlantic locations.

Video

httpv://youtu.be/l3rAjj3KBWs

11:30 AM | The sun has gone eerily quiet

Paul Dorian

Discussion

The main driver of all weather and climate, the entity which occupies 99.86% of all of the mass in our solar system, the great ball of fire in the sky – has gone eerily quiet. The sun is currently virtually spotless despite the fact that this is supposed to have been a period of elevated sunspot activity during the solar maximum of solar cycle 24.

We are currently over four years into Solar Cycle 24 and it continues to “underwhelm” and be on a pace that would make it the smallest sunspot cycle since Cycle 14 which peaked in February 1906. There is a growing feeling that, based on the recent inactivity, the peak may have already happened during the latter part of 2011 - much earlier than originally forecasted. Another theory suggests that there may be a “double-peak” solar maximum for this cycle which would mean there could be a sharp spike in sunspot activity still to come later this year or in 2014, but there certainly have been no signs of that in recent days.

Solar cycle 24 began after an unusually deep solar minimum that lasted from 2007 to 2009 which included more spotless days on the sun compared to any minimum in almost a century. While a weaker solar cycle does not rule out the threat for strong solar storms, it does suggest that they will occur less often than during the stronger and more active cycles. The increasingly likely outcome for a weak solar cycle continues the recent downward trend in sunspot cycle strength that began over twenty years ago with solar cycle 22. In addition, there are some solar scientists who are already predicting that the next cycle, 25, will be even weaker than the current one. According to some research studies, weak solar cycles with extended lengths may actually have a downward effect on global temperatures in the medium and longer range. Weak solar cycles tend to last longer than the strong ones. There have been historical periods with minimal sunspot activity that lasted for several decades such as from the mid 1600’s to the early 1700’s when the so-called “Maunder Minimum” occurred and this period was quite cold globally. We’ll continue to periodically report on the latest solar activity here at “thesiweather.com” to monitor any important changes that may unfold.

Video

httpv://youtu.be/r11ApCwhc-k

7:00 AM | Hot and humid today, strong storms possible tomorrow, much cooler air pours in at the end of the week

Paul Dorian

6-Day Forecast

Today

Mostly sunny, hot and humid, highs in the low-to-mid 90’s

Tonight

Partly cloudy, mild, muggy, lows by morning in the low 70’s

Thursday

Partly sunny, very warm and humid, afternoon showers and thunderstorms likely and some of the storms can be strong with gusty winds and heavy rain, near 90

Thursday Night

Mostly cloudy, chance for evening showers and thunderstorms, turning cooler late, lower 60’s

Friday

Partly sunny, breezy, cooler and less humid, maybe a shower or two, low-to-mid 70’s

Saturday

Mostly sunny, unseasonably cool, near 70

Sunday

Mostly sunny, still pleasant, mid 70’s

Monday

Mostly sunny, pleasant, upper 70’s

Discussion

Today will be the hottest day since mid-July in the DC metro region as high temperatures likely reach the low-to-mid 90's. Today may also turn out to be the last 90 degree day of the season as a strong cool front will bring big changes to the region for later this week. That front will arrive in the eastern states later tomorrow and it will bring with it the chance for strong thunderstorms around here containing gusty winds, heavy rainfall and frequent lightning. Following the frontal passage, it’ll turn unseasonably cool on Friday and Saturday with well below normal temperatures. In fact, highs on Saturday will struggle to reach the 70 degree mark. The pleasant air mass will last into Sunday and Monday with highs holding in the comfortable 70’s on those days to begin the new week.

Elsewhere, Humberto has indeed become the first hurricane of the 2013 season as it attained that status late last night with sustained winds of 75 mph (category 1). The first half of this tropical season has been very quiet with only one other season since the mid 1940's coming this far without a single hurricane in the Atlantic Basin. Perhaps the tropics will be making up for some lost time as there are other areas of interest in addition to Humberto which is way is closer to Africa than it is to the US. Gabrielle is still a tropical storm in the western Atlantic and it is headed generally northward towards the Atlantic Canadian maritime provinces. A disturbance near the Yucatan Peninsula region of Mexico is likely to intensify into a tropical storm, Ingrid, when it moves over the Gulf of Mexico during the next couple of days on its way towards northeastern Mexico and South Texas.

Video

httpv://youtu.be/N6CtjU8oVcM

1:00 PM | Historically quiet first half of the Atlantic tropical season may gets its first hurricane later today

Paul Dorian

tropicsInfrared satellite image of the tropics (courtesy of Wisconsin-SSEC)

Discussion

The climatological peak of the Atlantic tropical season happens to fall on today’s date, September 10th, and yet we have not had a single hurricane so far this year in the Atlantic Basin – but that could change as soon as later today. Currently, there are three areas of interest in the Atlantic Basin with two named tropical storms, Gabrielle in the western Atlantic and Humberto in the eastern Atlantic, and a third area in the western Caribbean that could become named during the next few days. Humberto is the strongest of the three systems and it could very well become a hurricane later today or tonight. Humberto’s latest measured sustained winds are at 65 mph with gusts to 75 mph – not far at all from the required 74+ mph needed for attaining official hurricane status.

Whether or not Humberto reaches hurricane status later today or tonight, the first half of this season has already made its mark as one of the least active periods on record. In fact, going back to the mid 1940’s when hurricanes hunters began to fly, there has been only one hurricane season in the Atlantic Basin that made it to the halfway point (September 10th) without a single hurricane and that was in the year 2002 when Gustav became a hurricane on September 11th. According to the National Hurricane Center, August 10th is the average date for the first Atlantic hurricane and typically there are three hurricanes by the mid-way point of the tropical season. An average season brings six hurricanes in the Atlantic of which two typically reach major hurricane status (i.e., category 3, 4 or 5). Going farther back, there were two years that had no reports of hurricanes in the Atlantic – 1907 and 1914. However, it is important to note that storms may have gone undetected back then without the aid of weather satellites.

The two tropical storms in the Atlantic, Gabrielle and Humberto, will stay over water for the next several days. Gabrielle will head northward affecting Bermuda later today and then the Atlantic Provinces of Canada this weekend. The western Caribbean disturbance may indeed develop into Tropical Storm Ingrid over the next few days as it heads out over the Gulf of Mexico - likely on its way towards South Texas and northeastern Mexico.

One word of caution, although the first half of this tropical season has been very quiet relatively speaking, the second half is usually more active than the first half. According to NOAA, there have been 645 hurricanes during the months of September, October and November as compare to 321 hurricanes during June, July and August.

humberto GOES visible satellite image of Tropical Storm Humberto in the eastern Atlantic (courtesy NOAA)

7:00 AM | Hot and humid into Thursday; strong cool front will put an end to the summer-like conditions and much cooler air moves back in for Friday and Saturday

Paul Dorian

6-Day Forecast

Today

Clouds this morning and some sun this afternoon, becoming very warm and humid, highs near 90 degrees

Tonight

Partly cloudy, mild, muggy, lows by morning in the low 70’s

Wednesday

Mostly sunny, very warm and humid, slight chance for a shower or thunderstorm, low-to-mid 90’s

Wednesday Night

Mostly cloudy, mild, muggy, slight chance for a shower or thunderstorm, low 70’s

Thursday

Partly sunny, very warm and humid, showers and thunderstorms likely and some of the storms can be strong, upper 80’s

Friday

Partly sunny, breezy, cooler and less humid, maybe a sprinkle, mid 70’s

Saturday

Mostly sunny, cool, near 70

Sunday

Mostly sunny, still refreshingly cool, low-to-mid 70’s

Discussion

The cool front that passed through the region on Sunday has turned around and returned as a warm front and its passage from south-to-north will usher in a noticeable change to very warm and humid conditions from this afternoon right into Thursday. Temperatures this afternoon will jump towards the 90 degree mark and could slightly surpass that tomorrow afternoon to go along with uncomfortable humidity levels. There is the slight chance for a shower or thunderstorm later tomorrow and tomorrow night, but an even better shot comes Thursday with the next strong cool frontal system and some of Thursday’s storms can be on the strong side. Following the passage of the next cool front, the coolest air so far this season will push into the Mid-Atlantic region for Friday and Saturday. In fact, highs on Saturday should struggle to reach 70 degrees around here (current normal high at Reagan National Airport is 82 degrees).

Video

httpv://youtu.be/PIqeD4lU5YY

10:45 AM | America's Deadliest Natural Disaster - the Galveston Hurricane of 1900

Paul Dorian

galvestonSurface weather analysis just before landfall on September 8, 1900

Discussion

At the end of the 19th century the city of Galveston, Texas was a booming town with a population of 37,000 residents. The city of Galveston lies on the east end of Galveston Island which runs about thirty miles in length and anywhere from one and a half to three miles in width. Its position on the harbor of Galveston Bay along the Gulf of Mexico made it the center of trade and the biggest city in Texas in the year 1900. A quarter of a century earlier, a nearby town was destroyed by a powerful hurricane and this object lesson was heeded by many Galveston residents and talks of a seawall to protect the city were quite prevalent; however, no seawall was built and sand dunes along the shore were actually cut down to fill low areas in the city, removing what little barrier there was to the Gulf of Mexico.

By late August of 1900 the local residents couldn’t help but to have an uneasy feeling as they knew the heart of the hurricane season had arrived and there was not nearly the weather observation network that we now have with today’s satellites and radar. In fact, ship reports were the only reliable tool for observing hurricanes at sea, but these were of somewhat limited warning value as they had no way of telegraphing weather observations ashore. The first formal observation for a developing new eastern Atlantic Ocean storm occurred on August 27th when a ship recorded an area of “unsettled weather” about 1000 miles east of the Windward Islands. This storm is believed to have begun as a “Cape Verde-type” hurricane – a tropical wave moving off the western coast of Africa. By September 1st, the US Weather Bureau observers were reporting on a “storm of moderate intensity” southeast of Cuba. The storm made landfall on southwest Cuba, but some of the reports that surfaced from Cuba were simply not believed as there was a distrust of Cuban weather forecasters. By September 5th, the system emerged into the Florida Straits as a tropical storm or weak hurricane. By the afternoon of the 7th, large swells from the southeast were observed on the Gulf of Mexico from Galveston Island and clouds at all altitudes began moving in from the northeast – both observations consistent with a hurricane approaching from the east. The Galveston Weather Bureau office raised its double square flags indicating a hurricane warning was in effect. By early afternoon on Saturday, September 8th, the Bureau office was recording hurricane-force winds.

In the early part of the night of September 8th, 1900 - a terrifying night that reshaped the Gulf of Mexico forever - the wind direction shifted to the east, and then to the southeast as the eye began to pass over the island just to the west of the city. The hurricane brought winds that evening estimated to be near 145 mph at landfall making it a Category 4 on today’s rating scale – stronger than Hurricane Katrina of 2005. It also brought a storm surge of over 15 feet that inundated most of Galveston Island and the city of Galveston. By the next morning, skies had cleared and a 20 mph breeze greeted the Galveston survivors, there were 3600 homes destroyed, and it was quite obvious that there was a tremendous loss of life. The storm continued on its trek producing lots of heavy rain and strong winds along the way, first tracking into Oklahoma, then the Great Lakes, and ultimately to near Halifax, Nova Scotia. As far away as New York City there were winds estimated as high as 65 mph - some four days after the devastation occurred in Galveston.

The Galveston Hurricane of 1900 is estimated to have killed as many as 12,000 individuals, but the number most often cited in official reports is 8000 – the true number will never be known. More people were killed in this single storm than the total of those killed in all the tropical cyclones that have struck the United States since. Indeed, the Galveston Hurricane of 1900 is the deadliest natural disaster to ever strike the US. By contrast, the second deadliest storm to strike the US, the 1928 Okeechobee hurricane, caused more than 2500 deaths and the deadliest storm of recent times, Hurricane Katrina of 2005, claimed the lives of approximately 1800 people.

Galveston never regained its former status as a major commercial center as development shifted north to Houston, which was enjoying the benefits of an oil boom. A 17-foot seawall was built beginning in 1902 and perhaps an even more dramatic effort to protect the city was its raising. Dredged sand was used to raise the city of Galveston by as much as 17 feet above its previous elevation. In 1915, a storm similar in strength and track to the 1900 hurricane struck Galveston. This storm brought a 12-foot storm surge which tested the new seawall. Although 53 people died on Galveston Island during the storm in 1915, this was a great reduction from the thousands who died in 1900 during the worst natural disaster America has ever faced.

storm_path

Path of the Galveston hurricane in the year 1900