7:00 AM | Colder for the weekend with snow showers possible at times

6-Day Forecast

Today

Snow showers just east of the District this morning; otherwise party sunny skies, cold, highs in the low 40’s

Tonight

Mostly cloudy, cold, lows in the mid-to-upper 20's

Friday

Mostly cloudy with a rain shower or two possible late in the day, chilly, low 40’s

Friday Night

Mostly cloudy, cold, snow showers possible, upper 20’s

Saturday

Early morning snow showers possible; otherwise, partly sunny skies, cold, mid 30’s

Sunday

Variable clouds, breezy, cold, snow showers possible, near 40

Monday

Mostly sunny, milder, mid 40’s

Tuesday

Becoming cloudy, chance for some snow later in the day, chilly, low-to-mid 40’s

Discussion

One cold front is generating snow showers on the eastern side of the District this morning and the next front, in a long series of fronts, will push into the eastern states tomorrow night/early Saturday and it will likely generate more scattered snow showers for the Mid-Atlantic region. Yet another disturbance will drop southeastward out of Canada by Sunday and it too could spark some snow shower activity in the region as we close out the weekend. By the middle of next week, we’ll be looking at the potential invasion of another bitter Arctic air mass and that cold shot could be preceded by some snow later Tuesday.

In fact, all indications point to a return of “deep freeze” weather in the eastern US beginning around the middle of next week and that colder weather pattern could last right into the early part of February. Longer range computer model forecasts from both the European and GFS (NOAA) are depicting an upper-level pattern that will feature a long wave trough in the eastern US and a long wave ridge along the west coast of North America by the second half of next week. The combination of these two upper level features will likely bring numerous Arctic air outbreaks into the central and eastern US from central Canada - perhaps for a two or three week period and right into the first part of February. It is too early to tell if we’ll get as cold as the early month “polar vortex” cold air outbreak, but Arctic outbreaks this time of year – climatologically the coldest time of the year – certainly can be noteworthy and I expect sub-zero readings to return to much of the northern US.

Video

httpv://youtu.be/TNkWcNUPDk4

12:05 PM | **"Deep freeze" weather to return to the Mid-Atlantic region in a week or so**

Discussion

All indications point to a return of “deep freeze” weather in the eastern US in about a week or so and that colder weather pattern could last right into the early part of February. A series of cold frontal passages will return the Mid-Atlantic region to moderately colder conditions by the weekend with slightly below-normal temperatures, but that may end up looking rather mild compared to the much colder air destined to push our way later next week and beyond.

Longer range computer model forecasts from both the European and GFS (NOAA) are depicting an upper-level pattern that will feature a long wave trough in the eastern US and a long wave ridge along the west coast of North America in a week or so (see forecast map). The combination of these two upper level features will likely bring numerous Arctic air outbreaks into the central and eastern US from central Canada - perhaps for a two or three week period right into the first part of February. It is too early to tell if we’ll get as cold as the early month “polar vortex” outbreak, but Arctic cold air outbreaks this time of year – climatologically the coldest time of the year – certainly can be noteworthy and sub-zero readings are likely across parts of the northern US.

Looking ahead to the Super Bowl, which is being played outdoors this year in northern New Jersey on February 2nd, the colder pattern that arrives later next week is still quite likely to be affecting the Mid-Atlantic region at that time and there will probably be snow on the ground. Now for some good news…Phillies pitchers and catchers report in just 29 days!

7:00 AM | Dense morning fog gives way to afternoon partial sunshine; snow showers possible late tonight; turns colder this weekend

6-Day Forecast

Today

Dense early morning fog will give way to partial sunshine this afternoon, mild, but not as mild as the past couple of days, a couple of rain showers possible late, highs in the upper 40's

Tonight

Mostly cloudy, turning colder late, a few rain showers possible in the evening, snow showers late with small accumulations possible, lows near 30 degrees

Thursday

Chance for early morning snow showers then becoming partly sunny, cold, near 40

Thursday Night

Partly cloudy, cold, upper 20’s

Friday

Becoming mostly cloudy, maybe a rain or snow shower in the afternoon, snow showers possible at night, cold, low 40's

Saturday

Morning snow showers possible; otherwise, partly cloudy skies, cold, mid 30’s

Sunday

Partly sunny, cold, maybe a snow shower, near 40

Monday

Partly sunny, chilly, low-to-mid 40’s

Discussion

Dense fog early today will give way to partial afternoon sunshine and then another cold front will push through the region in the overnight hours with evening rain showers and late night snow showers. Yet another cold front will works its way to the east coast at the end of the week and this one has a little more potential to affect the Mid-Atlantic region with more numerous snow showers on Friday night and early Saturday. Yet another upper level disturbance could cause a snow shower or two on Sunday and temperatures this weekend should be confined to 40 degrees or under for highs.

Video

httpv://youtu.be/R8jzphTWacU

7:00 AM | Damp and mild today with occasional rain

6-Day Forecast

Today

Cloudy and damp with occasional rain, still mild, highs near 50 degrees

Tonight

Mostly cloudy, colder, lows in the mid 30’s

Wednesday

Mostly cloudy, not as mild, a few afternoon rain showers possible, mid-to-upper 40's

Wednesday Night

Mostly cloudy, colder, snow showers possible, upper 20’s

Thursday

Becoming partly sunny, colder, upper 30’s

Friday

Partly sunny, cold, near 40; snow or snow showers possible at night

Saturday

Morning snow or snow showers possible; otherwise, partly sunny, cold, mid 30’s

Sunday

Partly sunny, cold, mid 30’s

Discussion

Today will be another mild day, but three cold frontal passages over the next few days will assure that we'll be back to below normal temperatures by the weekend. The first cold front will pass through the region later today generating occasional rain through the day, a second cold front will move through later tomorrow, and finally a third front will approach the area Friday night/early Saturday. The second frontal system could generate some rain showers later tomorrow and then possible snow showers tomorrow night. The third front could generate snow shower activity Friday night and early Saturday or even a period of steadier snow as temperatures drop back to highs in the 30's for the weekend. Looking ahead, the pattern definitely looks like it’ll get quite cold, and perhaps stormy, in the eastern US for the latter part of January and the beginning of February.

Video

httpv://youtu.be/_C8a2YMO3N8

7:00 AM | A mild start to the week with more rain on the way

6-Day Forecast

Today

Sunshine along with increasing clouds, mild, highs in the mid 50’s (normal high is now 43 degrees)

Tonight

Mostly cloudy, chilly, some rain likely late, lows in the low 40’s

Tuesday

Cloudy, periods of rain mainly before noon, still mild, near 50

Tuesday Night

Mostly cloudy, colder, low 30's

Wednesday

Mostly cloudy, colder, rain and/or snow showers, upper 30’s

Thursday

Mostly sunny, cold, upper 30’s

Friday

Partly sunny, not as cold, low-to-mid 40's

Saturday

Partly sunny, colder, snow showers possible, mid 30’s

Discussion

The week will start off on the mild side with temperatures well above normal for this time of year (normal high around 43 degrees at DCA). A cold front will pass through the region on Tuesday and this will push some rain into the region between about 3am and noon tomorrow, but this will not be a significant rain event with likely totals of a quarter inch or less. A secondary cold front will pass through the region later Wednesday and this will usher in colder air along with rain and/or snow showers as low pressure tries to form near the coast. High pressure will then take over for a brief time later this week, but then a third cold front approaches us by the weekend.

Video

httpv://youtu.be/s7yIEQjG_gI

1:50 PM | *Heavy rain from tonight through tomorrow night to bring localized flooding to the region; rain will be accompanied by strong winds and possible strong thunderstorms; next week will feature a return to progressively colder conditions and possible snow*

Discussion

The active weather pattern that began with a burst of snow and ice this morning will continue this weekend and heavy rain on the order of 1.5 to 2.5 inches will be the likely result from DC-to-Philly-to-NYC. While there will be periods of rain in the overnight hours along the I-95 corridor (some freezing rain and sleet possible as well), the heaviest and steadiest rainfall from this next system will come on Saturday and Saturday night. Not only is heavy rain coming, but winds should get quite strong on Saturday in a southerly direction ahead of a strong frontal system and then stay quite strong behind the front on Sunday out of the northwest. Southerly winds on Saturday will help to boost temperatures to 60 degrees or higher in many I-95 corridor locations. There is also the threat for some strong thunderstorm activity on Saturday and Saturday evening; especially, in southern and eastern portions of the Mid-Atlantic region (e.g., Southern New Jersey, Delmarva Peninsula). Localized flooding is a real threat this weekend given the heavy rainfall and the expected runoff as ground conditions are still quite frozen just below the surface. In addition, ice jams in local rivers and creeks could exacerbate the flooding potential in many areas.

Looking to next week, Monday will be rather calm and uneventful, but the overall active pattern is far from over. Another system is likely to bring rain back into the Mid-Atlantic region on Tuesday and that will be followed by colder air at mid-week which could be accompanied by some snow. Stay tuned.

7:00 AM | Freezing rain causes slick spots this morning as Arctic air is slow to give up its ground; milder air wins out on Saturday and heavy rain is likely

6-Day Forecast

Today

Freezing rain, possibly mixed with sleet and/or snow, during the morning hours that can quickly cause slick spots and then light “plain” rain this afternoon that can still freeze on some surfaces in areas to the north and west of the District, some patchy fog, cold, highs in the upper 30’s late in the day

Tonight

Mostly cloudy, chilly, periods of rain, some patchy fog, upper 30’s

Saturday

Cloudy, windy, milder, periods of rain, heavy at times, maybe a thunderstorm, near 60

Saturday Night

Mostly cloudy, windy, mild, periods of rain before midnight, upper 30’s

Sunday

Partly sunny, windy, cooler, near 50

Monday

Partly sunny, cool, near 50

Tuesday

Mostly cloudy, cooler, rain likely, mid-to-upper 40’s

Wednesday

Partly sunny, colder, low-to-mid 40’s

Discussion

An area of moisture from the south-central US will cause freezing rain around here this morning that can be mixed with sleet and/or snow at times and, given the still-cold ground conditions, slick spots can develop quickly. Milder air will try to push in this afternoon and there can be some light “plain” rain; however, it is also possible that some freezing continues to occur in suburban locations north and west of the District. The milder air will win out completely by tomorrow and temperatures will climb to near 60 degrees; however, there will be rain, heavy at times and maybe a thunderstorm. Winds will also be a noticeable factor this weekend as they will be strong from a southerly direction on Saturday just ahead of a frontal system and then strong on Sunday behind the frontal system in a northwesterly direction.

1:00 PM | A wild atmosphere from tonight into Sunday with snow, ice, heavy rain, fog, maybe a thunderstorm, strong winds, potential localized flooding contributed to by ice jams and - for good measure - possible northern lights

Discussion

Quite an interesting 60 hours or so from tonight into Sunday that will bring the Mid-Atlantic region snow, ice, heavy rain, fog, maybe a thunderstorm, strong winds, potential flooding contributed to by ice jams, and - for good measure - possible northern lights from an incoming coronal mass ejection generated by an X-class solar flare on Tuesday (only chance on viewing this will likely be early tonight as clouds roll in later).

Dense, cold Arctic air that reluctantly retreats tomorrow will be followed by a significant one-day thaw in the Mid-Atlantic region and this combination will help to produce some wild weather beginning late tonight and lasting into Sunday. An area of moisture is advancing this way from the south-central part of the country and it will arrive early Friday morning in the I-95 corridor region of DC, Philly and NYC. The atmosphere should be cold enough to allow for a burst of snow and/or ice during the morning hours which, given the still quite cold ground temperatures, will likely produce some slick spots on untreated surfaces. The morning snow and/or ice will tend to slacken off during the afternoon and early evening hours as temperatures creep higher, but there still can be some spotty light rain that freezes on some surfaces north and west of the big cities.

By later tomorrow night, and especially during the day Saturday, the milder air will win out throughout the region and the result will be a significant one-day thaw (55-60 degrees) along with soaking rain that will continue into Saturday night. In fact, up to two inches of rainfall is possible along the I-95 corridor by the time the precipitation winds down late Saturday night. Additionally, winds will become quite strong from a southerly direction during the day on Saturday ahead of a strong frontal system, and then there will be strong winds late Saturday night and Sunday behind the frontal system from a northwesterly direction. Hydrologically speaking, Pennsylvania Rivers (Delaware, Susquehanna) have had several ice jams reported since earlier this week and localized flooding problems can form on Saturday with the heavy rainfall and the runoff that is likely to occur with limited saturation into the frozen grounds.

Enjoy today’s calm weather.

7:00 AM | A burst of snow and/or ice late tonight and tomorrow morning could cause some slick spots; soaking rain on Saturday

6-Day Forecast

Today

Mostly cloudy, cold, highs in the upper 30’s

Tonight

Mostly cloudy, cold, a burst of snow and/or ice towards daybreak, upper 20’s

Friday

Snow and/or ice during the morning hours with some slick spots possible then light "plain" rain during the afternoon although there still can be some freezing on surfaces well north and west of the District, cold, highs near 40 degrees late

Friday Night

Mostly cloudy, cold, some rain likely, mid-to-upper 30’s

Saturday

Mostly cloudy, milder, periods of rain, some heavy in the afternoon and early evening, upper 50’s

Sunday

Partly sunny, becoming windy, highs near 50 degrees

Monday

Mostly cloudy, mild, low 50’s

Tuesday

Partly sunny, mild, chance for showers, low 50’s

Discussion

An area of moisture from the south-central US will cause a burst of snow and/or ice around here from very late tonight through the morning hours on Friday and there can be some slick spots during the morning rush hour. While it’ll turn slightly milder tomorrow afternoon with light "plain" rain likely, we cannot rule out some freezing in the suburbs well north and west of the District or even some ice pellets being mixed in at times in those suburbs. Much milder air wins out completely on Saturday and we are headed for a soaking rain event. Rain will come down hard during the afternoon and early evening hours with an inch of rain possible by the time the storm winds down late Saturday night. Sunday will feature clearing skies with windy conditions.

Video

httpv://youtu.be/n4RKPbO4vLM

12:40 PM | The sun unleashes the first major solar flare of 2014

Discussion

A giant sunspot region called AR1944 that is currently directly facing the Earth erupted yesterday with a powerful solar flare sending a blast of electrically charged particles our way. The solar eruption has been classified as an X1.2-class explosion and it could create auroras in the northern latitudes as early as tonight and also during the next couple of nights. X-class flares are the strongest category of solar outbursts, although X1.2 is toward the category's low end. AR1944 is one of the biggest sunspot regions of the past decade more than 200,000 kilometers wide with dozens of dark cores (solar image courtesy NASA/SDO and spaceweather.com).

As a result of the solar radiation storm, today’s planned launch at the NASA/Wallops Island, Virginia facility of an Antares supply rocket to the International Space Station has been postponed until later tomorrow at the earliest. More solar flares are possible from AR1944 over the next 48 hours or so and these could also have an impact on the Earth’s upper atmosphere given the current location of the huge sunspot region. The sun is currently in an active phase of its 11-year solar cycle though it has been much weaker than some previous solar maximums. The current cycle, called Solar Cycle 24, began in 2008.