7:00 AM | In the 60's on Tuesday, but much colder air returns for Wednesday night and Thursday

6-Day Forecast

Today

Partly sunny, much milder this afternoon, highs in the upper 50’s

Tonight

Partly cloudy, chilly, lows in the low 40's

Tuesday

Mainly cloudy, very mild, mid 60's

Tuesday Night

Mostly cloudy, chilly, chance for rain towards morning, low 40’s

Wednesday

Cloudy, still mild, periods of rain, near 60; rain could end overnight as a brief period of snow showers

Thursday

Becoming partly sunny, windy, very cold for this time of year, mid 30’s

Friday

Partly sunny, milder, near 55

Saturday

Partly sunny, even milder, low 60's

Discussion

Temperatures will rebound noticeably this afternoon and should climb into the 60’s on Tuesday. A cold frontal passage on Tuesday night, however, will bring an end to this early spring preview. A storm will gather strength over the Ohio Valley on Wednesday and rain will break out in the I-95 corridor region of the Mid-Atlantic. There is a chance that as colder air moves in on the back side of the low pressure system, rain changes briefly to snow or snow showers before ending late Wednesday night, but the significant snowfall looks like it will occur well north of here in interior New York State and New England. Temperatures will hold at well below normal levels on Thursday, but quick modification is likely to close out the work week.

Video

httpv://youtu.be/nwKaoBq8CKM

2:00 PM | Mid-week storm threat for the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast U.S.

Discussion

A pretty consistent pattern in the Mid-Atlantic region during this overall colder-than-normal winter has been to get a 2 or 3 day break of milder weather that is then followed by an accumulating snow event as colder air returns to the region. For example, Super Bowl weekend in early February featured mild weather conditions that peaked on game day Sunday only to be followed by a significant snowstorm on Monday in the Mid-Atlantic region as colder air poured back into the area. There are signs that we could actually go through somewhat of a similar scenario during the middle part of next week here in the Mid-Atlantic region; however, we are now well into the month of March and this would certainly inhibit the chances for accumulating snow, but not make it impossible.

After a mild Saturday and a colder Sunday, the early part of next week will feature much milder conditions. In fact, temperatures by Tuesday afternoon could climb to 60+ degrees in the DC metro region and well into the 50’s around Philly and NYC, but a strong cold frontal passage on Tuesday night will put an end to that mild break. On Wednesday, it appears that there will be a fresh injection of Arctic air – anchored by strong Canadian high pressure - and at the same time a storm system will be gathering strength in the Ohio Valley likely on its way to the Mid-Atlantic coastline. Precipitation is likely to move into the Mid-Atlantic region at mid-week just as colder air filters in from the north and this could ultimately result in an all too familiar scenario of rain changing to snow following a couple of mild days. The best chance for significant snow will likely be the interior sections of the Northeast U.S., but it is still several days away so stay tuned. Much colder air moves in behind the storm for the latter part of next week.

7:00 AM | Coastal storm to produce major icing today across North Carolina and southern Virginia, but it only skirts the DC metro region

6-Day Forecast

Today

Mostly cloudy, cold, just a slight chance for a little freezing rain and/or sleet later today in the District and points south and east, highs near 40 degrees

Tonight

Mostly cloudy, cold, slight chance for a little ice or rain early, lows near 30 degrees

Saturday

Partly-to-mostly sunny, becoming milder, low-to-mid 50’s

Saturday Night

Mostly cloudy, chilly, chance for a couple of rain showers late, lows in the mid 30’s

Sunday

Becoming partly-to-mostly sunny, colder, mid 40’s

Monday

Partly sunny, much milder, upper 50’s

Tuesday

Partly sunny, very mild, low 60’s

Wednesday

Mostly cloudy, turning colder, chance for rain or perhaps rain changing to snow, low 40’s

Discussion

A coastal storm will produce a serious ice storm today across the mountains of central and western North Carolina and southwestern Virginia, but it will only skirt the DC metro region with perhaps a little snow, ice or rain from the District to points south and east. Dry conditions will return to the region on Saturday as the coastal low pulls well away into the North Atlantic and it’ll become noticeably milder along with some sunshine. However, the next cold front is just upstream and it will generate a couple of rain showers around here late Saturday night and then usher in slightly colder air for Sunday. Temperatures will then rebound again quite noticeably on Monday, and Tuesday promises to be quite mild with highs way up in the 60's before colder air returns to the region at mid-week. That return of colder air around mid-week will likely be accompanied by a significant storm which could produce rain or perhaps rain changing to snow in the Mid-Atlantic region.

Video

httpv://youtu.be/cLopIghYB2M

7:00 AM | Temperatures take a step backwards today in our recovery process as fresh Arctic air moves in; NW fringes on Friday of coastal storm precipitation

6-Day Forecast

Today

Partly sunny, breezy, noticeably colder than yesterday, highs in the low-to-mid 30’s

Tonight

Mostly cloudy, cold, some sleet and/or freezing rain posssible towards morning; especially, to the south and east of the District, lows in the mid-to-upper 20’s

Friday

Mostly cloudy, cold, some sleet, freezing rain and/or rain likely; especially, to the south and east of the District, near 40

Friday Night

Mostly cloudy, cold, slight chance for ice and/or rain early, lows in the low 30’s

Saturday

Partly sunny, becoming noticeably milder, mid 50’s; chance for a few rain showers at night

Sunday

Partly sunny, breezy, colder, mid-to-upper 40’s

Monday

Partly sunny, milder again, upper 50’s

Tuesday

Partly sunny, still quite mild, low 60's

Discussion

While still below normal for this time of year, temperatures did modify markedly yesterday and the cold was not nearly as harsh as it was on Tuesday. Today, however, temperatures will take a step backwards on our road to full recovery as a fresh injection of Arctic air moved in overnight and it’ll turn out several degrees colder compared with yesterday. These colder-than-normal conditions will continue on Friday, but then it’ll get noticeably milder on Saturday with temperatures climbing into the 50’s.

As far as precipitation is concerned, the northwest fringes of a storm off the Southeast U.S. coast will reach the DC metro region on Friday and there is likely to be some sleet and/or freezing rain from late tonight through much of the day on Friday. The weekend looks dry once that storm pulls away, but the milder conditions on Saturday will give way to slightly colder weather on Sunday. Looking ahead to next week, after a mild early part of the week on Monday and Tuesday, it looks like colder air may make a return around mid-week.

Video

httpv://youtu.be/zeXPyRG0LZk

7:00 AM | Still colder-than-normal for the next few days, but not as harsh; much milder on Saturday with the 50's likely

6-Day Forecast

Today

Partly sunny, still quite cold, but not as harsh as yesterday, highs in the upper 30’s

Tonight

Partly cloudy, cold, lows in the lower 20’s

Thursday

Mostly cloudy, a bit colder, mid 30’s

Thursday Night

Mostly cloudy, cold, chance for snow or rain showers, lows in the upper 20’s

Friday

Mostly cloudy, chilly, chance for snow or rain showers, low-to-mid 40’s

Saturday

Partly sunny, becoming milder, low-to-mid 50’s

Sunday

Partly sunny, colder, upper 40’s

Monday

Mostly sunny, milder, mid-to-upper 50’s

Discussion

Our bitter cold air mass will modify some today, but temperatures will remain below normal through Friday. Milder air will push into the region on Saturday and temperatures will respond by climbing well up into the 50's. There is a one storm to monitor as the week progresses as low pressure will organize in the Southeast US. This storm will move off the Southeast US coast and then will ride to the northeast coming quite close to the I-95 corridor at the end of the work week. There is the chance that it could generate some snow or rain shower activity in the region as we close out the work week.

Looking ahead to next week, somewhat colder air will return for Sunday, but that should be rather short-lived as it'll turn milder again early next week. Later next week, however, colder air will again head towards the Mid-Atlantic region and there are signs that a significant storm could form near the east coast during the second half of next week.

Video

httpv://youtu.be/b2J5q9CzuZg

7:00 AM | A bitter cold start to the day with some amazing March low temperatures, but the 50's are on the horizon

6-Day Forecast

Today

A brutal cold start to the day with mainly cloudy skies, but the afternoon should feature partial sunshine along with very cold conditions, highs only reaching the upper 20’s (normal high at DCA is 51 degrees)

Tonight

Partly cloudy, bitter cold, lows in the low-to-middle teens

Wednesday

Partly-to-mostly sunny, very cold for this time of year, but not as harsh as Tuesday, upper 30’s

Wednesday Night

Mostly cloudy, quite cold, lows in the lower 20’s

Thursday

Mostly cloudy, cold, chance for snow showers at night, upper 30’s

Friday

Partly sunny, breezy, somewhat milder, mid 40’s

Saturday

Mostly cloudy, even milder, chance for rain showers at night, low 50’s

Sunday

Partly sunny, colder, mid-to-upper 40’s

Discussion

Bitter cold air starts the day and temperatures will climb no higher than the upper 20’s this afternoon which is way below normal for this time of year. Some impressive morning low temperatures in the Mid-Atlantic region with, for example, Atlantic City, NJ bottoming out at 2 degrees - an all-time record low temperature for the month of March. In addition, all of the following are record lows for the month of March that were set this morning:

Dover, DE: 8 degrees Baltimore, MD: 4 degrees (broke a record that stood since 1873 for the city of Baltimore) Dulles Airport, VA: -1 degrees (tied) Charlottesville, VA: 3 degrees

After another bitter cold night, temperatures will slowly modify during the second half of the week and should actually climb into the 40’s by Saturday afternoon. A storm does move up along the east coast later this week, but it appears at this time that it will only skirt the I-95 corridor with its moisture field.

Video

httpv://youtu.be/-WvQumdDkis

6:50 AM | ***A major snowstorm for the DC metro region; snow for much of the day with significant accumulations; brutally cold tonight***

6-Day Forecast

Today

Periods of snow, heavy at times, with significant accumulations of 4-8 inches, highest amounts on the south side of the District, “thunder snow” is even possible, windy, very cold with temperatures holding steady in the lower 20’s

Tonight

Gradual clearing and brutally cold with lows by morning in the single digits

Tuesday

Mostly sunny, very cold for this time of year, upper 20’s

Tuesday Night

Mostly cloudy, brutal cold, lows near 10 degrees

Wednesday

Mostly cloudy, not as cold, mid 30’s

Thursday

Cloudy, breezy, cold, mid 30’s; chance for snow showers at night

Friday

Mostly cloudy, not as cold, rain showers possible, low 40’s

Saturday

Partly sunny, milder, upper 40’s

Discussion

A major snowstorm is underway for the DC metro region with significant accumulations expected on the order of 4-8" (highest amounts on the south side of the District). Snow will continue through much of the day, heavy at times, with “thunder snow” possible and temperatures holding nearly steady in the lower 20’s as Arctic air has arrived. Gradual clearing will take place tonight as Arctic high pressure takes control and temperatures will plunge to the single digits. Very cold conditions on Tuesday will give way to milder conditions later this week.

4:20 PM | ***Arctic air moves in overnight and temperatures will plunge; steadiest and heaviest snow is late tonight/early Monday***

Discussion

Precipitation will continue to be of the scattered variety over the next several hours as an initial area of moisture pushes through the Mid-Atlantic region. A second batch of moisture will push in from our southwest late tonight and it will produce steadier and heavier precipitation and that moisture will be coincide with the colder Arctic air moving in from our north. The axis of heaviest snow from this storm will occur in the area from the DC metro region to the central Delmarva Peninsula to the Jersey Shore where totals can reach 6-12”. Snowfall accumulations will drop off quickly to the north with areas like New York City likely ending up in the 2-4 inch zone and New England largely being spared from this storm.

Now for the specifics:

NYC: light snow or a light wintry mix this evening changes to all snow later tonight. The snow continues into the mid-to-late morning hours before winding down with total accumulations on the order of 2-4 inches. Temperatures drop sharply overnight to near 20 degrees by morning and hold relatively steady tomorrow in the upper teens to lower 20’s before plunging to single digits late tomorrow night.

PHL: rain or a light wintry mix at times through the evening hours and then steadier and heavier snow should fall from late tonight to the mid-to-late morning hours on Monday. Total accumulations are likely to end up in the 4-8 inch range in the Philly metro region with the 4 inches in the northern sections of the area (e.g. northern Bucks County) and the 8 inches in southern sections (e.g., southern Chester County). Temperatures drop sharply overnight to near 20 degrees by early morning and then hold relatively steady tomorrow in the upper teens to lower 20’s before plunging to near 0 degrees late tomorrow night.

DC to the Jersey Shore: rain falls early tonight and it should then change to a wintry mix after midnight and then to all snow by early tomorrow. Snow will continue for much of the day on Monday, heavy at times, and “thunder snow” cannot be ruled out. Total accumulations are likely to end up in the 6-12 inch range throughout this region from DC to the Jersey Shore. Temperatures drop sharply overnight to near 20 degrees by morning and hold relatively steady tomorrow in the upper teens to lower 20’s before plunging to single digits late tomorrow night.

9:30 AM | ***Precipitation closing in as next winter storm approaches the Mid-Atlantic region; heaviest snow axis likely from DC to the Jersey Shore, but accumulating snow throughout much of the I-95 corridor***

[Latest infrared satellite image of the US; courtesy SSEC, University of Wisconsin]

Discussion

Precipitation is already moving into western sections of Pennsylvania this morning from the next winter storm to affect the Mid-Atlantic region at the same time Arctic cold air is situated just to the north ready to pounce on the region from northwest-to-southeast during the overnight hours. Some light precipitation will break out in the I-95 corridor later today, but the heaviest stuff will begin this evening and continue into Monday and temperatures will crash tonight following the Arctic frontal passage. It appears that the axis of heaviest snowfall of 8-12 inches will occur by late Monday in the area from the DC metro region to right across the central part of the Delmarva Peninsula to the Jersey Shore, but accumulating snow will occur throughout much of the I-95 corridor. Snowfall accumulations will drop off quickly to the north with areas like New York City likely ending up in the 3-6 inch zone and New England largely being spared from this storm.

Now for the specifics:

NYC: light snow or a light wintry mix breaks out this afternoon and changes to all snow early this evening. The snow continues heavy at times into the late morning or mid-day hours on Monday with total snowfall accumulations on the order of 3-6 inches. Temperatures peak today near 40 degrees then drop through the 20’s overnight and into the teens early Monday and then they’ll plunge late tomorrow night/early Tuesday to the brutally cold single digits for lows.

PHL: light snow or a light wintry mix breaks out this afternoon and changes to all snow early this evening. The snow continues heavy at times into the late morning or early afternoon hours on Monday with total snowfall accumulations as follows: 6-10 inches in the southern half of the metro region (i.e., Chester County, Delaware County, Philadelphia County, southern half of Montgomery County, southern half of Bucks County) and 4-8 inches across the northern half of Montgomery County and northern Bucks County. Temperatures peak today in the mid-to-upper 30’s then drop through the 20’s overnight and into the teens by early Monday and then they’ll plunge by late tomorrow night/early Tuesday to right around 0 degrees for lows.

DC to the Jersey Shore: light rain develops later today and changes to a wintry mix this evening and then to all snow by late tonight. Snow continues for much of the day on Monday, heavy at times, and there can be a “thunder snow” event or two mixed in. Total snowfall accumulation amounts by the time the storm winds down late tomorrow on the order of 8-12 inches. Temperatures peak today well up in the 40’s and then drop right through the 30’s this evening reaching the low 20’s by early tomorrow and probably hold relatively steady around there during the day on Monday. By late tomorrow night/early Tuesday, temperatures will plunge to the brutally cold single digits for lows.

Stay tuned for updates as a small shift can make big differences and mesoscale banding can have big impacts on the final results.

1:00 PM | ***Snowstorm hits the Mid-Atlantic region late Sunday night and Monday with the "bullseye" region for the heaviest snowfall from DC to Philly***

Discussion

A winter storm will affect the I-95 corridor region from DC-to-Philly-to-NYC from late Sunday into early Monday evening. The “bullseye” region for the heaviest snowfall from this storm is likely to occur in the southern half of this area from DC-to-Philadelphia and eastward to the Jersey Shore with the New York City metro region to the north of the heaviest snowfall. Indeed, there will likely be a sharp cutoff of the snowfall on the north side of the accumulating snow band with virtually no effects in New England.

California is getting slammed today by the storm that will quickly cross the country and spread precipitation into the Mid-Atlantic region later in the day on Sunday. Temperatures will actually climb to near 40 degrees on Sunday in Philly and NYC and into the 50’s across the DC metro region with no problems at all on the roadways. Temperatures will then absolutely crash in the overnight hours as Arctic air pours in behind a frontal passage so that by early Monday morning Philly and NYC will be well below freezing with accumulating snow falling and the DC metro region will be in the process of changing over from a wintry mix to heavy snow.

Temperatures will continue to plummet during the day on Monday right on through the 20’s and into the teens and then could actually bottom out by early Tuesday morning near an incredible 0 degrees in many suburban locations in the I-95 corridor. Icing is likely for a brief time in the NYC and Philly metro regions before the changeover to snow and perhaps for a more extended period in the DC metro region, but the vast majority of what falls on Monday in the I-95 corridor will be in the form of snow. In fact, the cold air will plunge so far to the south and east by later Monday that significant snow will accumulate from the Jersey Shore to southeastern Virginia.

Snowfall estimates at this time are as follows: NYC: 4-8” with minor icing before the changeover PHL: 8-12” with minor icing before the changeover (highest amounts to the south and east and lesser amounts to the north and west) (8-12” at the Jersey Shore with moderate icing) DC: 8-12” with moderate icing before the changeover

Stay tuned, additional updates later this weekend at “thesiweather.com” and there is still some time to go before the event.