2:30 PM | *Significant rainfall is headed to the Mid-Atlantic region*

Discussion

Overview Significant rainfall is headed to the Mid-Atlantic region and it looks like it will come as two separate events affecting each of the next three days with more than two inches possible by the time the weekend winds down.

Event 1 and the cold frontal passage The first rain event will be “light-to-moderate” occurring later tomorrow into early tomorrow night and it will be associated with a cold frontal passage. Showers will break out later tomorrow morning or early tomorrow afternoon and will continue into the early evening hours with perhaps a quarter to half an inch of rainfall by the time the front exits the region late tomorrow night. The break in the rainfall that occurs from late Friday night into early Saturday will be short-lived.

Event 2 and the strengthening low pressure system The cold front will stall out early Saturday over the Delmarva Peninsula setting the stage for a “heavy” rain event in the Mid-Atlantic region from later Saturday into Sunday. Low pressure will form over the Ohio Valley on Saturday – aided by an amplifying upper-level trough - and it will ride along the stalled out frontal boundary zone right into our area bringing with it substantial rainfall. The low pressure system will be slow to depart on Sunday given the continuing intensification of an upper-level trough. The strengthening low pressure system will generate a tightening pressure gradient and the result will be increasing winds later Sunday into Sunday night. Finally, just in time for back-to-work, there will be much improvement on Monday with the return of sunshine and milder conditions.

7:00 AM | Milder weather is on the way for tomorrow, but so are some showers; even more rain is coming for Saturday

6-Day Forecast

Today

Increasing clouds today, still cold, but not as harsh as yesterday, highs in the upper 40’s

Tonight

Mainly cloudy, chilly, lows near 40 degrees

Friday

Cloudy, breezy, mild, occasional showers, near 60

Friday Night

Mostly cloudy, cool, showers possible early, mid-to-upper 40’s

Saturday

Cloudy and cooler with periods of rain, low-to-mid 50’s

Sunday

Chance for showers early then perhaps some afternoon clearing, cool, mid 50’s

Monday

Mainly sunny, mild, low-to-mid 60’s

Tuesday

Partly sunny, still mild, chance for a shower, low 60's

Discussion

High pressure will shift off of the east coast today and clouds will be on the increase as a warm front approaches the region. Temperatures will climb noticeably on Friday behind the passage of the warm frontal system, but showers are likely as a cold front approaches from the west. This front is then likely to stall nearby on Saturday and low pressure will ride along the boundary zone producing a soaking rainfall for the region along with cooler conditions. Damp weather early Sunday will slowly give way to some clearing later in the day as high pressure gradually builds back into the region. Monday promises to be quite a nice day with sunshine and mild conditions.

Video

httpv://youtu.be/j1uXUz4vgXs

7:00 AM | Quite windy and cold today with scattered snow showers, but much milder air returns by Friday

6-Day Forecast

Today

Windy and cold today with a mix of clouds and sun and scattered snow showers, wind gusts to 35 mph or so, highs only reaching the upper 30’s

Tonight

Partly cloudy, brisk and quite cold, lows near 20 degrees

Thursday

Partly sunny, breezy, not as cold, near 50

Thursday Night

Mostly cloudy, chilly, near 40

Friday

Mostly cloudy, breezy, milder, showers likely, low 60’s

Saturday

Mostly cloudy, still mild, showers likely, low 60’s

Sunday

Becoming partly sunny, mild, chance for showers early, mid-to-upper 50’s

Monday

Mostly sunny, mild, low 60’s

Discussion

A strong low pressure system southeast of Long Island will head towards Nova Scotia, Canada today and high pressure will build into the area by tomorrow. The combination of the departing strong low pressure and the approaching high pressure system will create strong winds today gusting out of the northwest up to 35 mph or so. A cold front will approach the region late this week and will stall nearby producing the threat for showers at the end of the week and over the upcoming weekend.

Video

httpv://youtu.be/5qhlFQjwWR8

9:15 AM | *Accumulating snow on Tuesday/Tuesday night in DC, Philly and NYC*

Discussion

Low pressure will develop off of the Southeast U.S. coast by tonight and then track northeastward from Tuesday into Wednesday while rapidly intensifying. While the storms biggest impact will be up the coastline from here in eastern New England, there will be an extension of moisture (and accumulating snow) into the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC region on Tuesday and Tuesday night. Periods of snow on Tuesday and Tuesday night can accumulate into the 1-3 inch range in the DC metro region, and 2-4 inches across Philly and NYC. Any snow that falls during the daytime hours on Tuesday will have trouble sticking on roadway surfaces, but temperatures tomorrow night will fall below freezing and slick spots can develop. Winds will also become an issue around here later Tuesday night and Wednesday as the storm intensifies to very deep levels off of the New England coastline. Any last minute shift in the storm track can have a significant impact on the ultimate results around here.

9:30 AM | *Storm threat continues for Tuesday/Tuesday night; coastal low's biggest impact still destined for eastern New England, but accumulating snow still likely between DC and NYC; a small shift to the west could increase impact here significantly*

Discussion

Low pressure will move from the Gulf of Mexico region to off the Southeast U.S. coastline by early Tuesday and then will intensify rapidly as it pushes to the east of the I-95 corridor later Tuesday. Given this current projected storm track, the biggest impact by this unfolding powerful storm will be across eastern New England, but accumulating snow is still likely to fall in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor later Tuesday and Tuesday night as an upper-level system passes nearby and combines with the moisture from the coastal low. In addition, northerly winds will become quite strong in the region by Tuesday night and early Wednesday as the storm strengthens rapidly and passes by to the east. A small shift to the west in this current projected storm could increase impact significantly between DC and NYC. As it stands right now, accumulating snow is still likely in our region with increasing amounts to the northeast. Very preliminary estimates on the snowfall in the I-95 corridor are as follows: a coating to an inch or two in DC, 1-3 inches in Philly, and 3-6 inches in NYC. The snowfall during the day on Tuesday will likely have trouble at first sticking to roadway surfaces and there can even be rain or a wintry mix at the onset; especially, south of the PA/MD border before a changeover to all snow takes place.

7:00 AM | *Milder stretch of weather gives way to colder conditions early next week; serious storm threat continues for later Tuesday*

6-Day Forecast

Today

Partly sunny, breezy, mild, highs in the upper 50’s

Tonight

Mostly cloudy, chilly, lows in the lower 40’s

Saturday

Partly sunny, quite mild, maybe a shower, upper 60’s

Saturday Night

Mostly cloudy, turning colder late, upper 30’s

Sunday

Partly sunny, brisk and colder, near 50

Monday

Mainly sunny, cold, low 40’s

Tuesday

Mostly cloudy, cold, chance for some snow or a combination of rain and snow, low 40’s

Wednesday

Becoming partly sunny, cold, chance for some snow early, near 40

Discussion

Spring officially began yesterday afternoon and temperatures responded by climbing to noticeably milder levels and this stretch of milder weather will continue through tomorrow. A cold front, however, will pass through the area later tomorrow and its passage will usher in another round of colder-than-normal weather for the Mid-Atlantic region that will last well into next week. Along with the upcoming cold wave, there will even be another threat for snow next week depending on the track of a potential strong storm off the east coast.

By early Tuesday, copious amounts of moisture will be moving from the Gulf of Mexico towards the Southeast US coastline. At the same time, a vigorous upper-level short wave will be dropping southeastward into the northern U.S. from central Canada. There is reason to believe that this upper-level trough will combine with the Gulf of Mexico moisture to generate explosive development of a developing low pressure system somewhere off the east coast by late Tuesday or Tuesday night. The exact speed and location of this potential rapid intensification of low pressure somewhere off the east coast will determine whether accumulating snow will be a threat in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor or perhaps farther up the coast in New England or possibly not anywhere in the Northeast US or Mid-Atlantic as there is still a small chance that this could turn out to be a harmless “out-to-sea” event. It is way too early to make this determination as to where this low pressure will track and how quickly it will intensify and uncertainty remains high, but a serious threat does exist for the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast U.S. as there will be plenty of moisture, plenty of cold air, and a very impressive upper-level trough adding fuel to the fire.

2:45 PM | *Next week's cold comes with another serious snow threat*

Discussion

Overview Spring has officially sprung (as of 12:57 PM), but one pattern that we’ve seen consistently this winter may just repeat itself next week - despite the change of seasons. Specifically, there have been numerous short-term stretches of milder weather this winter that have been followed rather dramatically by cold and snow. Sure enough, we have just begun a 3-day stretch of milder weather around here that will last right through Saturday, but then a cold frontal passage late in the day will usher in colder air for the early part of next week. And, as has been the case during much of the winter, this change back to colder-than-normal weather that follows a brief warm spell could again be accompanied by accumulating snow.

Details Following the passage of a cold front on Saturday, temperatures will trend downward on Sunday as colder air moves in from the northwest and there could even be a touch of light snow accompanying the chill down. It’ll turn even colder on Monday with high temperatures likely confined to the 30’s in much of the Mid-Atlantic region which is well-below normal for this time of year. By early Tuesday, copious amounts of moisture will be moving from the Gulf of Mexico towards the Southeast US coastline. At the same time, a vigorous upper-level short wave will be dropping southeastward into the northern U.S. from central Canada. There is reason to believe that this upper-level trough will combine with the Gulf of Mexico moisture to generate explosive development of a developing low pressure system somewhere off the east coast by late Tuesday or Tuesday night. The exact speed and location of this potential rapid intensification of low pressure somewhere off the east coast will determine whether accumulating snow will be a threat in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor or perhaps farther up the coast in New England or possibly not anywhere in the Northeast US or Mid-Atlantic as there is still a small chance that this could turn out to be a harmless “out-to-sea” event. It is way too early to make this determination as to where this low pressure will track and how quickly it will intensify and uncertainty remains high, but a serious threat does exist for the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast U.S. as there will be plenty of moisture, plenty of cold air, and a very impressive upper-level trough adding fuel to the fire.

[12Z GFS forecast map for 2AM Wednesday; 12Z Euro model forecast is closer to the east coast and even more threatening for the I-95 corridor]

7:00 AM | Noticeably milder today with the return of sunshine; 3-day stretch of milder weather peaks on Saturday before another turn to colder weather begins

6-Day Forecast

Today

Early morning low clouds and fog will give way to mostly sunny skies, becoming windy and noticeably milder, highs in the upper 50’s

Tonight

Mostly clear, cold, lows in the lower 30’s

Friday

Some sun, still mild, upper 50’s

Friday Night

Mostly cloudy, cool, low 40’s

Saturday

Partly sunny, quite mild, maybe a shower, mid-to-upper 60’s

Sunday

Mostly sunny, brisk and colder, upper 40’s

Monday

Partly sunny, cold, near 40

Tuesday

Mostly cloudy, cold, chance for some snow or a mix of rain and snow, low 40’s

Discussion

Spring officially begins this afternoon and temperatures will respond by climbing to noticeably milder levels along with the return of sunshine and windy conditions. This milder stretch of weather will continue right through Saturday and high temperatures will likely peak in the upper 60's on Saturday afternoon before another change to sustained colder-than-normal weather begins on Sunday. In fact, much of next week looks to be on the colder-than-normal side thanks to another Arctic air mass that heads our way from central Canada and there is even the threat for some snow by late Tuesday depending on the track of a coastal storm.

Video

httpv://youtu.be/5bpw5h6JAb8

7:00 AM | Precipitation breaks out today ahead of an influx of milder air

6-Day Forecast

Today

Mostly cloudy and chilly, rain showers developing this morning that could be mixed with ice pellets or even some light freezing rain; especially, to the west of the District, occasional "plain" rain is likely this afternoon, highs in the low-to-mid 40’s

Tonight

Mostly cloudy, cold, a few more rain showers this evening, lows in the mid 30’s

Thursday

Becoming mostly sunny, windy, milder, mid-to-upper 50’s

Thursday Night

Mostly clear, cold, near 35

Friday

Mostly sunny, mild, upper 50’s

Saturday

Partly sunny, mild, showers possible, low-to-mid 60's

Sunday

Partly sunny, colder, mid-to-upper 40’s

Monday

Mainly sunny, cold, near 40

Discussion

A frontal system to our west is closing in on the region this morning and it will bring some precipitation to the DC metro area. Enough cold air will linger this morning to pose the threat for a wintry mix of freezing rain and/or ice pellets; especially, in the western suburbs of the District. Occasional "plain" rain is likely throughout the region during the afternoon hours and into the early part of the evening. Once the front clears the region by early tomorrow, sunshine will return and it’ll become windy and noticeably milder as we close out the work week. The mild weather continues into the early weekend, but a cold frontal passage will usher in colder for the beginning of next week. In fact, the pattern looks quite a bit colder-than-normal for next week in much of the central and eastern US – similar to what has occurred during much of the winter.

Video

httpv://youtu.be/74GTH-7TFuM

7:00 AM | Cold air and stubborn clouds for today; milder air returns later this week

6-Day Forecast

Today

Cloudy and cold with flurries possible at times, highs near 40 degrees (normal high is 56 degrees at DCA)

Tonight

Mostly cloudy, cold, a little rain, sleet or snow possible late, lows near 30 degrees

Wednesday

Mostly cloudy, chilly, chance for a few rain showers that could be mixed with ice pellets at times, mid 40’s

Wednesday Night

Mostly cloudy, cold, chance for a few rain showers, mid 30’s

Thursday

Mostly sunny, milder, mid-to-upper 50’s

Friday

Partly sunny, even milder, near 60

Saturday

Mostly cloudy, mild, showers likely, near 60

Sunday

Partly sunny, colder, mid-to-upper 40’s

Discussion

Arctic high pressure remains in control of the region and temperatures will respond by staying way below normal for this time of year. A frontal system will approach the Mid-Atlantic region on Wednesday and there can be some rain showers possibly mixed with ice pellets at times. Once the front clears the region, milder air will return for the last couple days of the work week. The milder weather will continue into the weekend, but colder air will push back into the Mid-Atlantic by early next week.

Video

httpv://youtu.be/v1tMmbbMQmg