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Blog

Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information

Filtering by Category: DC

7:00 AM | ***Accumulating snow early Tuesday...brutally cold Wednesday night/Thursday***

Paul Dorian

6-Day Forecast

Today

Partly sunny, windy, much colder than yesterday, flurries possible, temperatures holding steady or even dropping slowly during the day along with much lower wind chills

Tonight

Thickening clouds, very cold, snow likely by dawn, lows by morning near 20 degrees

Tuesday

Cloudy, cold, periods of snow in the morning and early afternoon hours, accumulations likely on the order of 1-3 inches, low-to-mid 30’s

Tuesday Night

Mostly cloudy, quite cold, low 20’s

Wednesday

Partly sunny, breezy, very cold, snow showers possible, upper 20’s; single digits possible in the overnight hours in some suburbs

Thursday

Partly sunny, windy, brutally cold, near 20 degrees

Friday

Partly sunny, still very cold, but not as severe, snow shower possible, low 30’s

Saturday

Mostly sunny, quite cold, low 30’s

Discussion

Much colder air has moved into the Mid-Atlantic region following the passage of a strong Arctic cold front, and even colder air is destined to arrive here at mid-week following the passage of a couple of “clipper-type" low pressure systems. Winds will be strong today as Arctic air pours into the region and the Great Lakes "lake-effect" snow machine is up and running in full force and it could even generate flurries as far south and east as the I-95 corridor. Temperatures will hold steady or even fall slowly through the day along with much lower wind chills.

A fast-moving low pressure system will spread snow into the local region by early tomorrow with accumulations likely on Tuesday all along the I-95 corridor from DC-to-Philly-to-NYC. The snow is likely to arrive here in time to have an impact on the morning commute, but will be a fast-mover with most of the snow already pulling away from the area by the evening rush hour. Another "clipper" system will generate snow showers in the region on Wednesday and then the coldest air yet this season will arrive for Wednesday night and Thursday. Single digits are likely for lows all along the I-95 corridor by early Thursday and the brutally cold conditions will continue throughout the day despite some sunshine. Yet another "clipper" will spread more snow into the Northeast US on Friday, but its main precipitation field will likely be a bit farther to the north compared to the Tuesday and Wednesday events limiting our chances for snow shower activity around here as we close out the work week, but we'll continue to monitor it.

Video

httpv://youtu.be/FrkIgPjcYlA

7:00 AM | Quite cold way to start the new year...temperatures drop to the upper teens by early Thursday morning in many suburban locations

Paul Dorian

6-Day Forecast

Today

Mostly sunny, quite cold, highs in the low-to-mid 30’s

Tonight

Mostly clear, very cold, lows by morning in the upper teens in many suburbs, low 20's inside the District

Thursday

Mostly sunny and cold, upper 30’s

Thursday Night

Mostly clear, quite cold, mid 20’s

Friday

Partly sunny, not quite as cold, mid 40’s

Saturday

Mostly cloudy, chilly, afternoon rain likely and there could be a brief wintry mix at the onset, low 40’s

Sunday

Mostly cloudy, much milder, chance for showers early, low-to-mid 50's

Monday

Mostly sunny, windy, quite cold, upper 30’s

Discussion

Very strong high pressure will stay in control of the weather across much of the nation over the next few days as it spreads south and east from the Northern Rockies and central Plains. A reinforcing Arctic air mass has moved into the Mid-Atlantic region in the overnight hours and temperatures today will struggle to reach the middle 30's in the metro region. As we ring in the New Year, temperatures will drop sharply overnight bottoming out in the upper teens by early tomorrow morning in many suburban locations and the lower 20's inside the District. It’ll stay relatively cold through the rest of the work week and then a low pressure system will head up to our west this weekend into the eastern Great Lakes. This type of storm track will usher in milder air to the region so that the bulk of the weekend system is likely to be in the form of plain rain around here. However, at the onset of the weekend precipitation event later Saturday, there may be enough cold air around for a brief period of a wintry mix before the ultimate changeover to plain rain. Looking ahead to next week, colder air pours in behind the weekend storm for the early part of next week and then a “clipper-type” of low pressure system could combine with coastal moisture to throw a little snow our way by around Tuesday of next week. Following that, it appears that very cold air will invade much of the eastern half of the nation for the second half of next week.

Video

httpv://youtu.be/9VHyuk2Ish8

7:00 AM | Cold weather has arrived and it'll stay cold into the end of the week; weekend storm threat favors rain

Paul Dorian

6-Day Forecast

Today

Mostly cloudy this morning with clearing later this afternoon, cold, cannot rule out flurries early today well to the south and east of the District, highs in the upper 30’s

Tonight

Mostly clear, quite cold, lows in the low-to-mid 20’s

Wednesday

Mostly sunny and cold, mid 30’s

Wednesday Night

Mostly clear, very cold, near 20 degrees

Thursday

Mostly sunny, cold, upper 30’s

Friday

Partly sunny, cold, low 40's

Saturday

Becoming cloudy, chilly, chance for PM rain, low-to-mid 40’s

Sunday

Mostly cloudy, chilly, chance for more rain, mid-to-upper 40’s

Discussion

Very strong high pressure will be in control of the weather across much of the nation over the next few days as it spreads south and east from the Northern Rockies. The weather will be much more typical of winter around here as we end the month of December and begin 2015, and it’ll be mainly on the dry side in the I-95 corridor. Significant moisture is likely to gather this weekend near the Gulf of Mexico and then spread northeast towards the Mid-Atlantic region and the Ohio Valley. At the current time, it appears that low pressure associated with this moisture field will pass to our west this weekend keeping us on the warmer side of the storm and this in turn will favor primarily a rain event around here from later Saturday into Sunday.

Video

httpv://youtu.be/gVezbsur5Bk

7:00 AM | More like winter as we head into the new year

Paul Dorian

6-Day Forecast

Today

Mostly cloudy, chilly, chance for a bit of rain or light snow, highs near 45 degrees

Tonight

Mostly cloudy, cold, chance for a bit of snow and/or rain, lows in the lower 30's

Tuesday

Mostly cloudy, cold, chance for a bit of snow and/or rain, upper 30's

Tuesday Night

Mostly cloudy, cold, middle 20’s for lows by morning

Wednesday

Mostly sunny, cold, mid-to-upper 30’s

Thursday

Partly sunny, cold, near 40 degrees

Friday

Increasing clouds, cold, near 40 degrees

Saturday

Mostly cloudy, chilly, chance for rain and/or snow, low-to-mid 40's

Discussion

A cold front crossed the area on Sunday ending our break from winter weather conditions and it’ll stay relatively cold for the next several days. Strong high pressure will reach the Northern Plains by tomorrow and it will gradually build to the south and east by later this week. A couple of weak systems will try to push some light precipitation into our direction early this week, but dry weather should prevail for much of the time. Looking ahead, there are some interesting prospects for a storm later this weekend or early next week as moisture pulls out of the Gulf of Mexico at the same time Arctic air sits across the northern US.

Video

httpv://youtu.be/3Cr3FyssklI

7:00 AM | Wild, windy, wet and warm for Christmas Eve...thunderstorms possible later today as front plows eastward...looks colder next week with quite a different feel for New Year's Day compared to Christmas Day

Paul Dorian

6-Day Forecast

Today

Cloudy, becoming windy and very mild, periods of rain, heavy at times, maybe a thunderstorm or two, highs near 60 degrees

Tonight

Cloudy, windy, mild, periods of rain, heavy at times, maybe a thunderstorm or two, lows in the middle 40’s

Thursday

Windy and becoming partly sunny, slightly cooler, low 50’s

Thursday Night

Mainly clear, diminishing winds, cold, lows near freezing

Friday

Mostly sunny, mild, near 50 degrees

Saturday

Partly sunny, mild, low 50’s

Sunday

Increasing clouds, chilly, chance for rain late, mid 40’s

Monday

Mostly cloudy, chilly, chance for rain, low 40’s

Discussion

A major storm will impact a large part of the country today and it will generate wet, windy and warm conditions for the Mid-Atlantic region with a thunderstorm or two possible later today and again tonight. Periods of rain today and tonight can fall heavily at times and there is a threat for some localized flooding conditions. The best chance for thunderstorms later today and tonight will be across southern and eastern sections of the Mid-Atlantic region (e.g., Delmarva Peninsula, coastal New Jersey), but just about anyone can see one as a cold front barrels eastward from the Midwest. In addition to the rainfall, winds will grow increasingly strong today with a southerly direction and those strong winds will continue into early tomorrow; however, the direction will shift to out of the west on Thursday following the passage of a cold frontal system. While cooler air moves in on Thursday, temperatures will remain at above-normal levels and it’ll stay relatively mild on Friday and Saturday as well. Truly cold air looks like it will arrive in the Mid-Atlantic region early-to-mid next week and New Year’s Day is likely to have quite a different feel to it than Christmas Day.

2:30 PM | Wild, wet, windy and warm on Christmas Eve...New Year's Day to likely have quite a different feel to it than Christmas Day

Paul Dorian

SE_radar

Discussion

Looks like a wild, wet, windy and warm Christmas Eve in the Mid-Atlantic region with enough heavy rain to cause some concern about localized flooding conditions. Heavy rain is gathering stream right now across the southeastern part of the country and it is headed in our general direction. While it will not rain continuously during this storm, there can be heavy rain at just about anytime from late tonight into early Thursday. Thunderstorms are also possible in the Mid-Atlantic region later tomorrow and tomorrow night with the greatest chance in the southern and eastern sections (e.g., Delmarva Peninsula, coastal New Jersey). Winds will also be an important factor during this storm with increasingly strong southerly winds on Wednesday shifting to a westerly direction on Thursday following the passage of a cold frontal system. While slightly cooler air will move into the I-95 corridor on Thursday behind the cold front, it’ll be above-normal for this time of year and the relatively mild weather will continue on Friday and Saturday as well. Truly cold air looks like it may arrive early next week following another storm system and it is quite likely that New Year’s Day will have quite a different feel to it than will Christmas Day.

7:00 AM | Very mild conditions tomorrow along with a soaking rain and increasingly strong winds, maybe even a thunderstorm or two

Paul Dorian

6-Day Forecast

Today

Cloudy, a bit milder, an occasional shower and some drizzle at times, patchy fog likely, highs in the mid 40’s

Tonight

Cloudy, cool, steadier rain developing, patchy fog possible, lows by morning near 40 degrees

Wednesday

Cloudy, becoming windy and quite mild, periods of rain, heavy at times, maybe a thunderstorm, upper 50's

Wednesday Night

Cloudy, windy, periods of rain, heavy at times, maybe a thunderstorm, mid 40’s

Thursday

Windy and slightly cooler with partial sunshine, near 50 degrees

Friday

Mostly sunny, cool, near 50 degrees

Saturday

Partly sunny, mild, low 50's

Sunday

Mostly cloudy, colder, chance for rain, near 40 degrees

Discussion

One storm moved up the east coast yesterday and now attention will turn towards the next storm which will be even stronger and it'll have a significant impact on a large part of the country during Christmas Eve. It has already turned a bit milder this morning compared to yesterday and temperatures will surge tomorrow to very mild levels for this time of year on stiffening southerly winds. The rainfall from this next storm will be heavy at times from later this evening through tomorrow night and there may even be some thunderstorm activity on Wednesday; especially, in southern and eastern parts of the Mid-Atlantic region (e.g., Delmarva Peninsula). The stiffening southerly winds that develop tomorrow will continue quite strong tomorrow night and then will remain quite strong early on Thursday after shifting to a westerly direction which will bring in only slightly cooler air to the region for Christmas Day. Truly cold air will not arrive in this area until next week and it looks like it'll be quite different temperature-wise on New Year's Day as compared with Christmas Day.

Video

httpv://youtu.be/Sl3jFZiauqI

7:00 AM | Freezing rain/sleet likely this morning before a changeover to plain rain...very mild and windy on Wednesday (Christmas Eve) with a soaking rainfall

Paul Dorian

6-Day Forecast

Today

Mostly cloudy, cold, freezing rain and sleet likely this morning and then plain rain showers likely this afternoon, highs in the mid-to-upper 30's

Tonight

Mostly cloudy, cold, rain showers likely, lows by morning in the low-to-mid 30’s

Tuesday

Mostly cloudy, milder, chance for showers, upper 40's

Tuesday Night

Mostly cloudy, cool, rain likely, mid 40’s

Wednesday

Cloudy, becoming windy and quite mild, periods of rain, heavy at times, near 60 degrees

Thursday

Windy and cooler with partial sunshine, near 50 degrees

Friday

Partly sunny, cool, near 50 degrees

Saturday

Partly sunny, cool, near 50 degrees

Discussion

The overall weather pattern this week looks quite active as the atmosphere over North America undergoes some significant changes. One storm will ride up the east coast today bringing occasional rain to the DC metro region; however, at the onset of this precipitation event this morning there can be sleet mixed in and the rain can freeze on untreated surfaces as morning temperatures hover around the freezing mark. By later today and tonight, the precipitation should fall as plain rain as temperatures climb to levels well above freezing. An even stronger storm will affect the Northeast US and Upper Midwest on Christmas Eve Day (Wednesday) into early Christmas Day. It’ll be turning quite mild ahead of the mid-week storm in the I-95 corridor which will produce rain around here and the rain can be heavy at times. In addition, there may even be some thunderstorm activity associated with this storm on Wednesday; especially, in southern and eastern parts of the Mid-Atlantic region (e.g., Delmarva Peninsula). The winds will be quite strong on Wednesday and those strong winds will continue on the back side of the storm Wednesday night into early Thursday as it turns cooler. While it does turn cooler on Thursday behind the storm, temperatures will generally remain above normal for this time of year during the second half of the week.

2:30 PM | An active weather pattern next week as the upper-air transition continues

Paul Dorian

Discussion

The upper-level flow over North America is undergoing a significant transition and this will lead to a stormy weather pattern next week in a good portion of the country. One storm will ride up the east coast later Monday into Tuesday likely bringing rains to the I-95 corridor region from DC-to-Philly-to-NYC. There is an outside chance that if the precipitation sneaks in early enough on Monday, there may be a little sleet and/or snow in parts of the Mid-Atlantic region for a brief time. Another storm will pound the western states early next week producing snow in many of the higher elevation locations.

The strongest storm of the week will affect the Upper Midwest, Northeast and Mid-Atlantic region on Christmas Eve (Wednesday) and into Christmas Day. The Mid-Atlantic region will be on the warm side of this storm with periods of rain likely on Wednesday possibly heavy at times. There is even the chance for some thunderstorm activity to form on Wednesday; especially, in the southern and eastern portions of the Mid-Atlantic (e.g., Delmarva Peninsula, coastal New Jersey). The winds will become quite strong on Wednesday and they will remain strong on Wednesday night and Thursday following the system. Colder air will move in behind the storm on Wednesday night and Thursday and snow showers are possible in the Mid-Atlantic region to go along with the strong winds. A significant lake-effect snow event is likely in the wake of the storm on Christmas Day in the typical areas just downstream of the Great Lakes (e.g., western NY).

7:00 AM | Weekend looks quiet...next week looks stormy and wet; winds should be quite strong on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day

Paul Dorian

6-Day Forecast

Today

Clouds and limited sunshine, cold, highs in the low 40’s

Tonight

Partly cloudy, cold, lows by morning in the mid-to-upper 20’s

Saturday

Partly sunny, cold, low 40’s

Saturday Night

Mostly cloudy, cold, upper 20's

Sunday

Becoming partly sunny, cold, low-to-mid 40’s

Monday

Mostly cloudy, cold, rain likely, low 40’s

Tuesday

Mostly cloudy, milder, still the chance for some rain, near 50 degrees

Wednesday

Cloudy, becoming windy with periods of rain, heavy at times, mild, low-to-mid 50’s

Discussion

After another cold day to close out the work week with limited amounts of sunshine, low pressure will pull out of the southern states this weekend and head towards the Mid-Atlantic coastline. This storm will not intensify appreciably as it reaches the east coast and its limited precipitation field will stay to the south and east of the I-95 corridor region.

The overall weather pattern next week looks quite active as the atmosphere over North America undergoes some significant changes. One storm is likely to ride up the east coast later Monday bringing some rain to the I-95 corridor and then another and even stronger storm is likely to affect the Northeast US and Upper Midwest on Christmas Eve (Wednesday). Odds heavily favor rain in the I-95 corridor with the second storm and it could be a very windy and soaking rain event - possibly even including some thunderstorm activity. On the back side of that mid-week storm, it’ll turn colder around here on Wednesday night and Christmas Day with an outside chance for snow showers, but the biggest factor of all may very well be the continuing strong winds. The overall weather pattern will likely turn much colder as we approach New Year’s Day.

Video

httpv://youtu.be/z59mqP0R6tg