7:00 AM | Much more comfortable today with lower humidity and pleasant temperatures; remains of Tropical Storm Bill can play a role in the weekend weather

6-Day NYC Forecast

Today

Mainly sunny, pleasantly warm and less humid, highs near 80 degrees

Tonight

Becoming cloudy, mild, becoming muggy by morning with a chance for showers, lows in the low 60's

Thursday

Mostly cloudy, not as warm, humid, showers likely and maybe a thunderstorm, mid-to-upper 70’s

Thursday Night

Chance for showers and thunderstorms early, mild, muggy, low-to-mid 60’s

Friday

Partly sunny, warm, low 80’s

Saturday

Partly sunny, warm, chance for rain and thunderstorms at night depending on the movement of the remains of Tropical Storm Bill, mid-to-upper 70's

Sunday

Cloudy, quite warm, humid, chance for rain and thunderstorms depending on the movement of the remains of Tropical Storm Bill, low-to-mid 80’s

Monday

Partly sunny, quite warm, mid 80’s

Discussion

A cool front passed through the area late yesterday and much more comfortable air has pushed into the Mid-Atlantic region. This break in the overall active weather pattern will not last too long; however, as the front will return northward as a warm front later tonight and Thursday and this will renew the chances for rain and thunderstorms. It’ll mainly turn out to be rain-free on Friday and then attention will turn to the impressive moisture field associated with Tropical Storm Bill which has pounded Texas with heavy rainfall. This area of moisture is likely to get pushed to the north and east over the next few days by upper-level winds and it could very well generate some heavy rainfall in the Mid-Atlantic region late Saturday into Sunday.

1:00 PM | Weekend heavy rain threat with a tropical connection

[Latest colorized IR satellite image; courtesy Penn State eWall]

Discussion

Tropical Storm Bill is pushing ashore at this hour over the central Texas coastline bringing with it torrential rainfall and renewed concerns for flooding. The latest colorized infrared satellite image (above) shows an extensive area of high clouds (reds, oranges) over the Gulf of Mexico associated with strong thunderstorm activity near the tropical system. The strongest winds associated with Bill are likely to occur to the east of the storm track where gusts can reach 65 mph or so as the system moves inland. The heaviest rainfall likely to fall over the next 24 hours or so will be on areas that suffered through flooding rains in May such as eastern Texas, northwestern Louisiana and southeastern Oklahoma. Some of these locations could receive more than a foot of rain on top of the 1-2 feet of rain experienced there back in May.

After the storm moves inland, it’ll transition to a non-tropical system, but flooding rainfall will continue in its path. Bill’s immediate moisture field is likely to advance to the north and east as it gets influenced by southwesterly upper-level winds. In fact, there is already an impressive moisture field that extends from the Texas coastline to the Mid-Atlantic region as indicated below by the blueish-green colors on the following wind flow and precipitable water map. Note the circulation center at the Texas coastline associated with Tropical Storm Bill.

[Low-level wind flow and precipitable water; courtesy earth.nullschool.net]

There is the chance that heavy rainfall from the remains of Tropical Storm Bill will reach the Mid-Atlantic region sometime this weekend. The latest GFS computer model forecast (below) depicts an area of heavy rainfall in the Mississippi Valley by early Friday afternoon (top, circled area) that then progresses to the I-95 corridor region by early Sunday morning (bottom, circled area). Stay tuned.

[GFS forecast maps for early Friday PM (Top) and early Sunday morning (bottom); courtesy NOAA]

7:00 AM | Still unsettled with the threat for showers and strong thunderstorms; much more comfortable on Wednesday

6-Day NYC Forecast

Today

Mainly cloudy, warm, humid, chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms, some of the rain can be heavy at times, highs in the low-to-mid 80’s

Tonight

Slight chance for showers and thunderstorms early; otherwise, clearing skies, mild, mid-to-upper 60’s

Wednesday

Mainly sunny, warm, less humid, near 80 degrees

Wednesday Night

Chance for showers and thunderstorms to return late at night, mild, becoming muggy by morning, low-to-mid 60’s

Thursday

Mostly cloudy, not as warm, humid, chance for showers and thunderstorms, some of the rain can be heavy at times, mid-to-upper 70's

Friday

Partly sunny, warm, low-to-mid 80’s

Saturday

Partly sunny, warm, humid, chance for showers and thunderstorms late, near 80 degrees

Sunday

Partly sunny, warm, humid, chance for showers and thunderstorms, low-to-mid 80’s

Discussion

Active weather will continue today as a cool front approaches the region from the northwest. The threat exists for afternoon and early evening showers and thunderstorms and some of the storms can be on the strong side. Much more comfortable weather will push in for Wednesday, but this break in the action will likely be followed by another round of showers and possible thunderstorms late Wednesday night and Thursday.

Elsewhere, the tropics have become active again with the formation of Tropical Storm Bill over the Gulf of Mexico. This storm will generate heavy rainfall over eastern Texas and other parts of the southern Plains in the near term and its remains could very well create some heavy rainfall this weekend or early next week in the Mid-Atlantic region.

7:00 AM | *An unsettled week with heavy rain and localized flooding possible*

6-Day NYC Forecast

Today

Mainly cloudy, warm, more humid, showers and thunderstorms are possible late, some of the rain can be heavy at times, highs not far from 80 degrees

Tonight

Mostly cloudy, mild, muggy, fog possible late, chance for showers and thunderstorms, some of the rain can be heavy, lows near 70 degrees

Tuesday

Mostly cloudy, warm, humid, chance for showers and thunderstorms, low 80’s

Tuesday Night

Becoming partly cloudy, mild, mid-to-upper 60’s

Wednesday

Mainly sunny, more comfortable, low 80’s; chance for showers and thunderstorms late at night

Thursday

Mostly cloudy, a bit cooler, humid, occasional showers and thunderstorms and some of the rain can be heavy at times, mid-to-upper 70’s

Friday

Partly sunny, warm, humid, chance for showers and thunderstorms, low 80's

Saturday

Partly sunny, warm, chance for showers and thunderstorms, near 80 degrees

Discussion

Much of this week will be unsettled as multiple disturbances push along a frontal boundary zone that will hang around the Mid-Atlantic region. As a result, numerous rounds of showers and thunderstorms are possible during the week with heavy rain and localized flooding possible in any given location. Showers and thunderstorms can pop up at just about anytime later today, tonight and Tuesday, and while Wednesday could present a break in the action, more showers and thunderstorms are likely to return for Wednesday night or Thursday.

3:00 PM | Isolated-to-scattered strong thunderstorms firing up

[Latest NEXRAD radar image; courtesy University of Wisconsin]

Discussion

Strong thunderstorms have fired up in higher elevation regions from central Pennsylvania to eastern West Virginia and the environment is unstable enough around here for some of the strong storms to make it to the immediate I-95 corridor during the next few hours (4-9pm). Temperatures have soared into the 90’s across the region and humidity levels are quite high at uncomfortable levels. The combination of the heat and humidity along with some upper-level energy will support some of this storm activity as it treks eastward during the latter part of the afternoon and early evening hours. While the storms will be only isolated-to-scattered in terms of areal coverage, any area that does get hit could experience strong wind gusts, hail and brief downpours.

7:00 AM | Still very warm and humid as we close out the work week, but relief is coming this weekend; scattered storms will form later today and some could get strong

6-Day NYC Forecast

Today

Mainly sunny, hot, humid, chance for an isolated afternoon shower or thunderstorm, highs not far from 90 degrees

Tonight

Chance for an early shower or thunderstorm; otherwise, mostly cloudy skies, mild, muggy, lows near 70 degrees

Saturday

Mainly cloudy, still quite warm, humid, chance for a shower or thunderstorm, mid-to-upper 80's

Saturday Night

Chance for an early evening shower or thunderstorm then becoming partly cloudy, mild, upper 60’s

Sunday

Mainly sunny, more comfortable, low 80’s

Monday

Partly sunny, still pretty comfortable, chance for showers and thunderstorms at night, near 80 degrees

Tuesday

Mostly cloudy, warm, more humid, chance for showers and thunderstorms, low-to-mid 80’s

Wednesday

Partly sunny, warm, near 80 degrees

Discussion

Very warm and humid weather conditions will continue today to close out the work week, but relief is coming this weekend. As far as precipitation is concerned, a weak frontal system will likely generate isolated-to-scattered showers and thunderstorms later today and early tonight and, while many spots will remain rain-free, locations that do get hit could experience gusty winds, hail and brief downpours. A cool frontal system will generate scattered showers and thunderstorms on Saturday and Saturday night. Lower temperatures and humidity levels should arrive for Sunday following the passage of a cool frontal system. Monday starts off fairly comfortable, but by Monday night and Tuesday, the humidity will rise again and so will the chances for showers and thunderstorms.

Video

httpv://youtu.be/Lkhb7xsIfdQ

7:00 AM | Humidity rises today as temperatures approach the 90 degree mark...scattered storms form later today and some will be on the strong side

6-Day NYC Forecast

Today

Partly sunny, very warm, more humid, scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms, some of the storms can be on the strong side, highs near 90 degrees

Tonight

Chance for an early shower or thunderstorm and some of the storms can be on the strong side; otherwise, partly cloudy skies, mild, muggy, lows near 70 degrees

Friday

Partly sunny, very warm, humid, a few afternoon showers and thunderstorms are possible, mid-to-upper 80’s

Friday Night

Chance for an early shower or thunderstorm; otherwise, partly cloudy skies, mild, muggy, near 70 degrees

Saturday

Partly sunny, still very warm, humid, chance for a shower or thunderstorm, mid-to-upper 80’s

Sunday

Mainly sunny, comfortably warm and less humid, low 80’s

Monday

Mainly cloudy, comfortable temperatures, chance for showers and thunderstorms late, near 80 degrees

Tuesday

Mainly cloudy, warm, muggy, chance for PM showers and thunderstorms, near 80 degrees

Discussion

Humidity values were at comfortable levels on Wednesday, but it’ll turn more uncomfortable today as temperatures soar to the 90 degree mark and overall humidity levels climb. A weak cool front will set off scattered showers and thunderstorms in the Mid-Atlantic region later today and early tonight and although many spots may stay rain-free, any storm that does form can be on the strong side. A warm frontal system will push through the region on Friday and this may generate a few scattered showers and thunderstorms to go along with continued very warm and humid conditions. Yet another front (cool) will approach on Saturday and this too will generate a few scattered showers and thunderstorms to go along with very warm and humid weather conditions. Once that front clears the east coast on Saturday night, it’ll set the stage for a nice day on Sunday with lower humidity and more comfortable temperatures.

12:20 PM | Redder-than-normal sunset possible tonight due to Canadian wildfire smoke

[GOES visible satellite image; courtesy NOAA, Penn State eWall]

Discussion

A milky haze can be seen in the latest GOES visible satellite image (above) across West Virginia, Virginia and the Delmarva Peninsula and all of this is the result of wildfire activity across southern Canada. Upper levels winds have pushed the smoke from southern Canada into the Mid-Atlantic region over the past 24 hours or so and it very well could contribute to a redder-than-normal sunset in much of the Mid-Atlantic region; especially, across the DC metro region. The wildfire smoke can also be seen in a recent NASA MODIS satellite image (below) and the circled area shows the active wildfire locations (red dots) that have contributed to our current milky skies and possible spectacular sunset.

[NASA MODIS US visible satellite image; courtesy NASA]

7:00 AM | A pretty nice day at the mid-week point

6-Day NYC Forecast

Today

Mostly sunny, warm, comfortable humidity, highs in the low-to-mid 80’s

Tonight

Mostly clear, mild, lows in the upper 60’s

Thursday

Partly sunny, very warm, more humid, chance for an afternoon shower or thunderstorm, near 90 degrees

Thursday Night

Chance for an early shower or thunderstorm; otherwise, partly cloudy skies, mild, muggy, near 70 degrees

Friday

Mainly sunny, quite warm, humid, chance for a couple of showers and thunderstorms late in the day or at night, mid-to-upper 80’s

Saturday

Partly sunny, quite warm, humid, chance for showers and thunderstorms, mid 80’s

Sunday

Mainly sunny, comfortable, low 80’s

Monday

Mostly cloudy, warm, more humid again, chance for showers and thunderstorms, near 80 degrees

Discussion

High pressure builds into the region today providing us with very warm, but rather comfortable humidity levels and plenty of sunshine. A weak cool front will approach the region later tomorrow raising the chances again for a shower or thunderstorm on what will be a very warm day flirting with the 90 degree mark and an increase in humidity. Very warm weather continues on Friday and a warm frontal system will likely generate a few PM showers and thunderstorms in the Mid-Atlantic region. Yet another frontal system (cool) will approach us later Saturday bringing with it a renewed shot for showers and thunderstorms. Ahead of that next cool front, it'll stay very warm on Saturday with rather uncomfortable humidity levels, but the passage of this front should usher in more comfortable air for Sunday with reduced temperatures and humidity values to close out the weekend.

7:00 AM | Still the threat for showers and thunderstorms...some of the storms can be quite strong

6-Day NYC Forecast

Today

Clouds and limited sun, warm, still the chance for showers and thunderstorms, some of the storms can be quite strong, highs in the low 80’s

Tonight

An evening shower or thunderstorm possible then becoming partly cloudy, mild, lows in the mid 60’s

Wednesday

Mainly sunny, warm, low-to-mid 80’s

Wednesday Night

Partly cloudy, mild, mid-to-upper 60’s

Thursday

Mainly sunny, pretty hot, near 90 degrees; chance for a shower or thunderstorm late in the day or at night

Friday

Mainly sunny, very warm, maybe a shower or thunderstorm, upper 80’s

Saturday

Partly sunny, quite warm, chance for showers and thunderstorms, low-to-mid 80’s

Sunday

Mostly sunny, warm, low 80’s

Discussion

One cool front set off showers and thunderstorms in the I-95 corridor late yesterday and last night and a secondary front will continue the threat today, and once again, some of the storms can be on the strong side. Once this second front clears the east coast later tonight, the Mid-Atlantic region should enjoy mainly rain-free weather later this week - though a shower or thunderstorm cannot be ruled out - and it'll turn very warm with a flirtation of the 90 degree mark for highs on a couple of occasions.