7:00 AM | Threat grows for a cool, rainy end-of-week

6-Day NYC Forecast

Today

Mainly sunny, still quite warm, humid, cannot rule out an afternoon shower or thunderstorm, highs not far from 90 degrees

Tonight

Partly cloudy skies, becoming more comfortable, lows in the upper 60’s

Wednesday

Mainly sunny, pleasant, mid 80’s

Wednesday Night

Mainly clear, comfortably cool, low-to-mid 60’s

Thursday

Increasing clouds, comfortable temperatures, showers possible at night, low 80's

Friday

Mainly cloudy, on the cool side with periods of rain likely, maybe a thunderstorm, upper 70's

Saturday

Showers likely early then becoming partly sunny late, cool, near 80 degrees

Sunday

Mainly sunny, comfortable, near 80 degrees

Discussion

A cool, rainy day is an increasing possibility at the end of the week…a cool frontal system is stalling out just south of here and a wave of low pressure will ride along its boundary zone later in the week. Temperatures will trend downward over the next few days and be closer to the 80 degree mark for highs by Thursday rather than the 90 degrees that we’ve been accustomed to in recent days. Showers are likely in the cooler air mass late this week and there is a growing chance for some steady rain as we close out the work week and begin the weekend.

7:00 AM | Turning noticeably cooler and unsettled later this week

6-Day NYC Forecast

Today

Mainly sunny, quite warm, becoming a bit more humid, highs not far from 90 degrees

Tonight

Chance for a shower or thunderstorm; otherwise, partly cloudy skies, mild, lows near 75 degrees

Tuesday

Mainly sunny, quite warm, cannot rule out a shower or thunderstorm, near 90 degrees

Tuesday Night

Partly cloudy skies, turning more comfortable late, upper 60’s

Wednesday

Mainly sunny, pleasant, mid 80’s

Thursday

Mainly cloudy, noticeably cooler with the chance for showers, highs near 80 degrees

Friday

Mainly cloudy, still on the cool side with showers possible, maybe even a period of steady rain, near 80 degrees

Saturday

Partly sunny, cool, showers still possible, near 80 degrees

Discussion

A cool frontal system will approach the area later today from the Great Lakes region and it could produce an isolated shower or thunderstorm. This front will stall just south of our area by mid-week and waves of low pressure will ride along the frontal boundary zone later in the week as we turn noticeably cooler. Elsewhere, there is now a typhoon in the western Pacific Ocean named "Soudelor" and it could become quite a news maker over the next few days as computer forecast models suggest a deepening of its central pressure to rarely-seen levels. It is very likely to reach "super" typhoon status in the near term - Taiwan, China and Japan are keeping a close eye on it.

Video

httpv://youtu.be/wLjZpbkr9Ew

7:00 AM | Less humid today following yesterday's frontal passage

6-Day NYC Forecast

Today

Mainly sunny, quite warm, but less humid, highs not far from 90 degrees

Tonight

Mainly clear, comfortable, lows in the upper 60’s

Saturday

Mainly sunny, still quite warm, cannot rule out a shower or thunderstorm late, near 90 degrees

Saturday Night

Partly cloudy skies, mild, cannot rule out a shower or thunderstorm, upper 60’s

Sunday

Mainly sunny, quite warm, near 90 degrees

Monday

Mainly sunny, quite warm, near 90 degrees

Tuesday

Mainly sunny, quite warm, near 90 degrees

Wednesday

Mainly sunny, quite warm, upper 80’s

Discussion

Following yesterday’s frontal passage, less humid air has moved into the Mid-Atlantic region, but it will stay quite warm with high temperatures not far from the 90 degree mark this afternoon. It’ll stay quite warm this weekend as well with plenty of sunshine each day and the warmth will continue into the early part of next week. A cooler pattern, however, will unfold for the latter half of next week as upper level low pressure develops over the Northeast US.

12:35 PM | *Strong-to-severe thunderstorms arrive this afternoon*

[Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) values (2500 or higher indicate extreme instability); courtesy NOAA)

Discussion

Strong-to-severe thunderstorms are moving eastward from areas to the west of the I-95 corridor into highly unstable air and should make an early-to-mid-afternoon (1:30-3:00PM) arrival in the DC and Philly metro regions and mid-to-late afternoon (3:00-4:30PM) across New York City. Any thunderstorm can produce heavy amounts of rainfall in a short period of time, frequent lightning, and there can be some potentially damaging wind gusts in some of these storms. The culprit of this activity is the combination of an approaching frontal system, very humid air, and energy in the upper atmosphere.

Severe weather indices are often quite useful to weather forecasters in the determination of atmospheric instability and several of these are raising red flags for the I-95 corridor for this afternoon and early evening. One such index is called Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and readings above 2500 are considered to be “extreme” and suggestive of a very unstable atmosphere. Currently, CAPE values of 2500–3000 extend from SE PA to the DC metro region (circled area) indicating the atmosphere is very unstable. Shut your windows if necessary.

[Latest GOES visible satellite image with N-S frontal boundary zone; courtesy Penn State eWall]

7:00 AM | Strong-to-severe thunderstorm threat later today as front closes in on the area...less humid on Friday

6-Day NYC Forecast

Today

Partly sunny, hot, humid, showers and thunderstorms likely for the mid or late afternoon hours, some of the storms can be on the strong-to-severe side and some of the rain can be heavy, highs in the low 90’s

Tonight

Chance for lingering early evening showers and thunderstorms, some of the storms can be on the strong-to-severe side and some of the rain can be heavy; otherwise, becoming partly cloudy late, mild, lows near 70 degrees

Friday

Mainly sunny, still very warm, but less humid, near 90 degrees

Friday Night

Mainly clear skies, mild, near 70 degrees

Saturday

Mainly sunny, very warm, near 90 degrees; chance for a shower or thunderstorm at night

Sunday

Mainly sunny, very warm, near 90 degrees

Monday

Mainly sunny, quite warm, near 90 degrees

Tuesday

Mainly sunny, quite warm, maybe a shower or thunderstorm, near 90 degrees

Discussion

Hot and humid weather will continue today, but the bigger story is the threat for afternoon and early evening showers and thunderstorms - some of the storms can reach strong-to-severe levels with brief downpours and potentially damaging wind gusts. All of this activity will be generated by a frontal system that will bring somewhat less humid air to the region on Friday and for much of the weekend. Temperatures today and for the next several days will remain quite warm with highs each afternoon not far from the 90 degree mark. Looking ahead, a cooler weather pattern is likely to become established by the second half of next week in the Mid-Atlantic region. One final note, the moon becomes full by tomorrow and this will actually be the second full moon of the month; otherwise, known as a "blue" moon.

Video

httpv://youtu.be/Qjp5WbdXSk4

7:00 AM | Hot weather continues today...approaching front brings fresh round of showers/storms late tomorrow

6-Day NYC Forecast

Today

Mainly sunny, hot, humid, highs in the low-to-mid 90’s

Tonight

Partly cloudy, balmy, muggy, cannot rule out a shower or two late, lows not far from 75 degrees

Thursday

Partly sunny, hot, humid, chance for showers and thunderstorms, some of the storms can be on the strong side, near 90 degrees

Thursday Night

Chance for evening showers and thunderstorms; otherwise, mostly cloudy skies, mild, low 70’s

Friday

Mainly sunny, still very warm, but a bit less humid, near 90 degrees

Saturday

Mainly sunny, very warm, near 90 degrees

Sunday

Mainly sunny, quite warm, near 90 degrees

Monday

Mainly sunny, quite warm, near 90 degrees

Discussion

One of the hottest stretches of the summer will peak today and tomorrow with some areas along the I-95 corridor reaching the middle 90's for afternoon highs on each day. While tomorrow promises to be another hot day, an approaching frontal system will likely bring a fresh round of showers and thunderstorms to the region and some of the rain can be heavy at times. Following the front, it’ll turn a bit less humid on Friday, but also remain quite warm with highs flirting again with the 90 degree mark. The hot weather is likely to continue this weekend with highs near the 90 degree mark, but a significant pattern change to cooler-than-normal will develop later next week in the Northeast US.

7:00 AM | Hot stretch of weather begins today...change in the overall pattern develops next week

6-Day NYC Forecast

Today

Mainly sunny, hot, humid, highs near 90 degrees

Tonight

Partly cloudy, mild, muggy, lows in the low-to-mid 70’s

Wednesday

Mainly sunny, hot, humid, low-to-mid 90’s

Wednesday Night

Partly cloudy, mild, low-to-mid 70’s

Thursday

Partly sunny, hot, humid, chance for showers and thunderstorms, low 90’s

Friday

Mainly sunny, still pretty hot, but a bit less humid, near 90 degrees

Saturday

Mainly sunny, hot, near 90 degrees

Sunday

Partly sunny, hot, near 90 degrees

Discussion

The hottest stretch of weather this summer will take place in the I-95 corridor during the next several days as high pressure builds into the region from the Great Lakes. Temperatures should reach or surpass the 90 degree mark each of the next several days with plenty of sunshine expected thanks to the high pressure system. A frontal system will approach the region late Thursday and likely generating another round of showers and thunderstorms. This frontal system can really be characterized as a "dry" front as it'll stay pretty hot following the frontal passage on Friday and Saturday, but perhaps a bit less humid. Looking ahead, while this week will feature lots of hot weather, the overall weather pattern will undergo a change next week to cooler-than-normal conditions in the Mid-Atlantic region as we progress through early August.

7:00 AM | Hot weather on Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday...pattern changes to cooler-than-normal next week

6-Day NYC Forecast

Today

Mainly cloudy skies, warm, humid, chance for more showers and thunderstorms and some of the rain can be heavy, highs in the low-to-mid 80’s

Tonight

Scattered evening showers and thunderstorms then becoming partly cloudy late, mild, muggy, lows near 70 degrees

Tuesday

Mainly sunny, hot, near 90 degrees

Tuesday Night

Partly cloudy, mild, low 70’s

Wednesday

Mainly sunny, hot, low-to-mid 90’s

Thursday

Partly sunny, hot, humid, chance for showers and thunderstorms, low 90’s

Friday

Mainly sunny, warm, less humid, upper 80’s

Saturday

Mainly sunny, warm, upper 80’s

Discussion

A weak cool front will dissipate in the Mid-Atlantic region today, but it will likely provide enough instability in the atmosphere to set off more in the way of shower and thunderstorm activity as we progress through the day and some of the rain can be heavy. The threat for showers and thunderstorms will continue this evening, but then high pressure will build back into the region for Tuesday and Wednesday and it’ll turn hot. A cool front will then approach the area on Thursday and it is likely to set off more shower and thunderstorm activity which will all be followed by lower humidity conditions on Friday. Looking ahead, while this week will feature hot weather on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday, cooler-than-normal weather is likely in the Mid-Atlantic region next week.

Video

httpv://youtu.be/IzHl53UeeVA

7:00 AM | Nice weather to end the week...weakening cool front approaches the area on Sunday

6-Day NYC Forecast

Today

Mainly sunny, still quite comfortable, highs in the low-to-mid 80’s

Tonight

Partly cloudy, pleasant, lows in the mid-to-upper 60’s

Saturday

Mainly sunny, a bit warmer, mid 80’s

Saturday Night

Partly cloudy, mild, upper 60’s

Sunday

Partly sunny, warm, more humid, chance for showers and thunderstorms, mid 80’s

Monday

Partly sunny, warm, humid, chance for showers and thunderstorms, mid 80’s

Tuesday

Mainly sunny, warm, mid-to-upper 80’s

Wednesday

Mainly sunny, warm, mid-to-upper 80’s

Discussion

High pressure remains in control of the weather, but it will pass off the Mid-Atlantic coastline on Saturday. A weakening cool front will approach the region on Sunday and this will increase the chances for shower and thunderstorm activity early next week before another high pressure system builds back into the area.

7:00 AM | The beat goes on...nice weather continues through Saturday and Sunday doesn't look bad either

6-Day NYC Forecast

Today

Mainly sunny, comfortable, highs in the mid 80’s

Tonight

Mostly clear, pleasantly cool, lows near the 65 degree mark

Friday

Mainly sunny, nice, mid 80’s

Friday Night

Mainly clear, still quite pleasant, mid 60’s

Saturday

Mainly sunny, comfortable, mid 80’s

Sunday

Partly sunny, warm, chance for showers and thunderstorms late in the day or at night, mid 80’s

Monday

Partly sunny, warm, chance for showers and thunderstorms, mid 80’s

Tuesday

Mainly sunny, warm, mid-to-upper 80’s

Discussion

High pressure is in control of the weather in the Northeast US and will remain so right into the weekend. The next chance for showers and thunderstorms is likely to hold off until late in the weekend with the approach of the next cool frontal system.