12:20 PM | An update on "Solar Cycle 24"

Discussion

We are now a few years into the current solar cycle (#24) which began during 2008 and it is becoming increasingly clear as to where it stands in term of relative strength compared to other cycles. Despite the fact that there was solar flare activity late last week from the group of sunspots known as AR1504, this particular solar cycle, which is expected to reach a solar maximum next year, has been one of the weakest in recent times in terms of total number of sunspots. This outcome continues the recent downward trend in sunspot cycle strength that began with solar cycle 22 which peaked around 1990. In fact, at the current pace, solar cycle 24 could turn out to be the smallest in about 100 years and there are some who already predict that the next cycle, 25, will be even weaker than this one during the next decade. While a weaker cycle does not rule out the threat for strong solar storms, it does suggest that they will occur less often than during stronger, more active cycles. At the same time the sun appears to be in a period of weaker and weaker sunspot cycles, the northern Pacific Ocean has appeared to have entered a long-term colder phase which can last up to a few decades. The combination of these two cyclic processes may impact global temperatures over the next several years and we'll continue to track it.

Video

httpv://youtu.be/C3mBEzoZyFY

1:30 PM | Update on the latest CMEs

Discussion

For the second day in a row, the sun has sent a blast of electrically charged particles towards the Earth. Both of these coronal mass ejections (CMEs) originated in the sunspot region officially referred to as AR1504 and shown in yesterday’s video. It appears as if these two different CMEs will actually merge together before arriving in the vicinity of the Earth, sometime on Saturday, June 16th, as the more recent CME is traveling about twice as fast as the older original one. Neither of these flares has approached the “X-class” level, which would have had the potential for disruptions in power grids or satellite-based communication. Bottom line: polar regions will have a better chance of seeing the northern lights this weekend and maybe, just maybe, some will be seen as far south as the northern US during Saturday night.

7:00 AM | "Marine layer" clouds hang around again today along with cool, breezy conditions

6-Day Forecast

Today

Some early morning fog and drizzle; otherwise, mostly cloudy again today with breezy and cool conditions, mid 60’s

Tonight

Mostly cloudy, breezy, possible fog late, near 60

Saturday

Early morning clouds and fog, breezy, remaining mostly cloudy during the afternoon, a tad milder, upper 60’s

Saturday Night

Mostly cloudy with some patchy fog late, near 60

Sunday

Fog possible early then mostly sunny skies, near 70

Monday

Fog possible early then mostly sunny skies, near 70

Tuesday

Fog possible early then mostly sunny skies, near 70

Wednesday

Fog possible early then mostly sunny skies, near 70

Discussion

A marine layer of clouds kept us mostly cloudy yesterday and there will be plenty of low clouds sticking around for today and tomorrow as well. Temperatures will continue to be slightly cooler-than-normal in the LA metro region with highs struggling to escape the 60’s to close out the work week. The onshore flow will tend to weaken later this weekend and early next week and that will lead to slightly milder conditions with highs near 70 degrees each day along with the return of afternoon sunshine. As far as the sun is concerned, for the second day in a row sunspot AR1504 erupted and sent a coronal mass ejection (CME) towards the Earth. This new CME is expected to merge with the initial CME from two days ago to deliver a combined blow to the Earth's magnetic field on Saturday. Sky watchers should watch for auroras very late tonight and again tomorrow night.

Video

httpv://youtu.be/pdehlnssr9U

7:00 AM | Threat for severe thunderstorms later today as strong upper level disturbance passes overhead

6-Day Forecast

Today

Partly sunny, warm, chance for showers and thunderstorms and some of the storms can contain heavy rain, hail and very strong wind gusts, mid 80’s

Tonight

Chance for an evening thunderstorm and some of these can be strong; otherwise, partly cloudy and cool, lows in the upper 50’s

Saturday

Mostly sunny, breezy, not quite as warm, still the chance for showers and thunderstorms and some of these storms can be quite strong, near 80

Saturday Night

Chance for an evening thunderstorm; otherwise, partly cloudy, cool, mid 50’s

Sunday

Mostly sunny, breezy, very warm, near 90

Monday

Mostly sunny, very warm, low 90's

Tuesday

Mainly sunny, still very warm, upper 80’s

Wednesday

Partly sunny, not as warm, chance for showers and thunderstorms, low-to-mid 80’s

Discussion

A strong upper level disturbance raises the chance for some strong thunderstorm activity later today with heavy rain, hail and very gusty winds possible across northeastern Colorado. That storm threat will continue tomorrow as well as a cold front brings more instability to the region along with a brief cool down. Beyond that, however, high temperatures will once again reach or even surpass the 90 degree mark on Sunday and Monday before it cools off again by the middle of next week. As far as the sun is concerned, for the second day in a row sunspot AR1504 erupted and sent a coronal mass ejection (CME) towards the Earth. This new CME is expected to merge with the initial CME from two days ago to deliver a combined blow to the Earth's magnetic field on Saturday. Sky watchers should watch for auroras very late tonight and again tomorrow night.

Video

httpv://youtu.be/pdehlnssr9U

12:45 PM | Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) targets Earth on Saturday with a glancing blow

Discussion

Despite relative calm on the sun in recent weeks, there is now an active group of sunspots called AR1504 and there was a coronal mass ejection (CME) detected on Wednesday, June 13th. All indications suggest that it was a moderately strong solar flare of rather long duration that took several hours to unfold. Long duration flares often hurl CMEs into space and it appears that this one has done just that. NOAA computer model forecasts predict that the CME will deliver a glancing blow to three planets: Venus on June 15th, Earth on Saturday, June 16th, and finally Mars on June 19th. As a result, NOAA estimates about a 30% chance for geomagnetic storms when the CME reaches Earth and high-latitude sky watchers should be on alert for auroras. While there certainly is no guarantee that northern lights will be visible this far south, at least the weather will cooperate in the Northeast US with plenty of clear skies this weekend.

Video

httpv://youtu.be/S0JQ4oqAqbg

7:00 AM | Marine layer clouds to stick around again today

6-Day Forecast

Today

Some early morning fog and drizzle; otherwise, mostly cloudy again today with breezy and cool conditions, low-to-mid 60’s

Tonight

Mostly cloudy, breezy, possible fog late, near 60

Friday

Early morning clouds and fog may give way to some partial afternoon clearing, breezy, cool, mid 60’s

Friday Night

Mostly cloudy with some patchy fog late, near 60

Saturday

Fog possible early then partly sunny skies, a tad milder, near 70

Sunday

Fog possible early then mostly sunny skies, cool, near 70

Monday

Fog possible early then mostly sunny skies, near 70

Tuesday

Fog possible early then mostly sunny skies, near 70

Discussion

A deep marine layer of clouds kept us mostly cloudy yesterday and there will be plenty of low clouds sticking around for today as well. Temperatures for the next couple of days will continue to be slightly cooler-than-normal in the LA metro region with highs struggling to escape the 60’s. The onshore flow will tend to weaken this weekend and that will lead to slightly milder conditions with highs near 70 degrees on Saturday and Sunday.

Video

httpv://youtu.be/uCHMF_uKocc

7:00 AM | Mid 80's likely today and tomorrow and the threat for thunderstorms will increase for tomorrow and Saturday

6-Day Forecast

Today

Mostly sunny, breezy and warm, highs in the mid 80’s

Tonight

Chance for an evening thunderstorm; otherwise, partly cloudy and cool, lows in the upper 50’s

Friday

Mostly sunny, still warm, maybe a thunderstorm, mid 80’s

Friday Night

Chance for an evening thunderstorm; otherwise, partly cloudy, cool, upper 50’s

Saturday

Partly sunny, warm, chance for a few thunderstorms, low 80’s

Sunday

Mostly sunny, very warm, near 90

Monday

Mainly sunny, very warm, upper 80's

Tuesday

Partly sunny, very warm, upper 80’s

Discussion

Hot and dry conditions yesterday consisted of afternoon high temperatures in the low 90’s in some spots with extremely low dew point values as low as 12 degrees which, of course, did not help the wildfire situation at all. Normal high temperatures for Denver are around 82 degrees and we’ll continue to be slightly above normal for the next couple of days although not as extreme as on Wednesday. After a slight chance for scattered thunderstorms for tomorrow and Saturday, the weather will turn somewhat warmer and drier again to begin the new week.

Video

httpv://youtu.be/uCHMF_uKocc

12:00 PM | The onset of El Nino and what it could mean

Discussion

There are important changes going on in the tropical Pacific Ocean in terms of sea surface temperatures that will likely have ramifications on the overall US and tropical Atlantic weather for the next several months. For almost two years now, sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific have been below normal (La Nina). It now appears, however, that an El Nino is developing with above normal sea surface temperatures off of the west coast of South America and that transformation could very well last right into the 2012-2013 winter months. In terms of possible effects on the weather in the US and tropical Atlantic this summer, the developing El Nino could do the following based on analog years:

1) diminish the chances for widespread and long-lasting heat 2) diminish the threat for drought in certain places like the southeastern part of the country and 3) diminish tropical Atlantic storm development as there is a tendency for greater vertical wind shear in the Atlantic which inhibits storm formation.

Looking way ahead, the newly emerging El Nino could have an impact on the upcoming winter weather here in the US, but much of that will depend on the strength that it ultimately reaches. In general, strong El Nino events feature less snow in the eastern US whereas weak-to-moderate events have been known to produce heavier wintertime snowfall amounts. My guess at this point is that this El Nino will remain in the weak-to-moderate range as winter approaches, but we’ll continue to monitor that over the next several months. El Ninos tend to be weaker and less frequent during periods of "negative" Pacific Decadal Oscillations (PDOs) as were are currently experiencing in the northern Pacific. One thing is pretty certain at this point in time, the overall pattern during the upcoming winter will very likely be quite different in the tropical Pacific compared to last winter when there was a moderately strong La Nina.

Video

httpv://youtu.be/75dgOCffV0Q

7:00 AM | 90's today and very warm conditions for the next several days, but some cooler weather is in sight

6-Day Forecast

Today

Mostly sunny, breezy and hot, low 90's

Tonight

Partly cloudy skies, breezy, cool, upper 50’s

Thursday

Mostly sunny, still very warm, maybe a thunderstorm late, upper 80's

Thursday Night

Could be an evening thunderstorm; otherwise, partly cloudy, cool, upper 50’s

Friday

Mostly sunny, very warm, chance for a few thunderstorms, upper 80’s

Saturday

Mostly sunny, very warm, still the chance for a few thunderstorms, mid-to-upper 80’s

Sunday

Mainly sunny, very warm, mid-to-upper 80’s

Monday

Partly sunny, very warm, mid-to-upper 80’s

Discussion

Very warm conditions have returned to the region and high temperatures will head to the low 90's today, but there is some hope for a cooler weather pattern by Tuesday of next week. While today offers little chance for rain, there will be a weak cool front in the region on Thursday and this will enhance the threat for a late day or nighttime thunderstorm as temperatures climb to the upper 80's. A couple of upper air disturbances will pass over the region on Friday and Saturday and the result will higher humidity each day and the threat for a few thunderstorms before the atmosphere dries out again on Sunday. Cooler weather is likely to move in by about Tuesday of next week with a frontal passage.

Video

httpv://youtu.be/Axqo6NxQSZ8

7:00 AM | Cool, breezy conditions continue with highs holding primarily in the 60's

6-Day Forecast

Today

Lots of clouds today, breezy, a bit cooler than normal, mid-to-upper 60’s for highs

Tonight

Partly cloudy early then mostly cloudy late with some fog, breezy, lows near 60

Thursday

Some fog early then remaining mostly cloudy, breezy, still a bit cooler than normal, mid 60’s

Thursday Night

Partly cloudy early, mostly cloudy late with some patchy fog, near 60

Friday

Fog possible early then becoming mostly sunny, cool, mid-to-upper 60’s

Saturday

Fog possible early then mostly sunny skies, cool, upper 60’s

Sunday

Fog possible early then mostly sunny skies, a tad milder, near 70

Monday

Fog possible early then mostly sunny skies, near 70

Discussion

In general, the overall cooler-than-normal weather pattern that we’ve experienced recently looks like it will continue right into the weekend. An onshore flow of air will rule for the rest of this week and that will lead to generally slightly cooler-than-normal temperatures in the LA metro region along with breezy, rain-free conditions. There will be lots of marine-layer clouds around for the next couple of days, but sunshine should return in full force by Friday afternoon. The onshore flow will tend to weaken later this weekend and that will lead to slightly milder weather with highs near 70 degrees.

Video

httpv://youtu.be/Axqo6NxQSZ8