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Blog

Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information

Filtering by Category: Other

12:30 PM | Isaac continues to maintain hurricane status and is moving at a painful pace; more than 9 inches of rainfall has already been reported near New Orleans, LA

Paul Dorian

Discussion

Isaac continues to spin only very slowly to the NW at 5 mph and it has had very little weakening over the last several hours. The latest measurements indicate sustained winds are still at hurricane status levels at 75 mph and the central pressure has only risen 2 millibars since early this morning. As a result, SE Louisiana, southern Mississippi and southwest Alabama continue to get pounded by wind and rain and will so for several more hours. Flooding is a major concern throughout this region given the slow movement of Isaac and more than 9 inches have already been reported at Lakefront Airport in New Orleans. Winds have gusted as high as 72 mph in New Orleans and to 110+ mph in a few nearby locations with nearly 500,000 already without power. Longer term, the remains of Isaac still appear to be headed first to the north towards Arkansas and Missouri and then to the east towards the east coast. In fact, the remains of Isaac could very well interact with a frontal system to produce some rainfall in the Mid-Atlantic by the latter part of the Labor Day weekend. By the way, today happens to be the 7th anniversary of Hurricane Katrina which attained category 5 status over the Gulf of Mexico before weakening to a category 3 hurricane as it approached the New Orleans metro region on 8/29/2005.

7:00 AM | Isaac pounding away at Louisiana and Mississippi with wind and rain; 90's again around here for today and tomorrow

Paul Dorian

6-Day Forecast

Today

Mostly sunny, hot, mid 90’s

Tonight

Partly cloudy, mild, breezy, lows in the low 60’s

Thursday

Mostly sunny, hot, low-to-mid 90’s

Thursday Night

Partly cloudy, mild, low 60’s

Friday

Mostly sunny, not as hot, near 90

Saturday

Mainly sunny, very warm, upper 80’s

Sunday

Mainly sunny, warm, chance for showers and thunderstorms, mid-to-upper 80’s

Monday

Mainly sunny, warm, maybe a shower or thunderstorm, mid-to-upper 80’s

Discussion

Persistent upper level high pressure will continue over the area and temperatures will again respond by climbing to the 90’s. Sub-tropical moisture will be limited so rainfall chances will be at a minimum over the next couple of days. Temperatures will trend slightly downward as the second half of the week progresses.

Isaac came ashore last night in SE Louisiana and it remains classified as a hurricane this morning and it is absolutely pounding Louisiana and Mississippi with wind and rain. The latest measurements have winds sustained at 80 mph with gusts to 95, central pressure at 970 millibars and continued very slow movement to the NW at 5 mph. This slow movement is the main reason that flooding is a very serious concern down there as tremendous amounts of rainfall are likely over the next 24 hours or so on the order of 20+ inches in spots.

Video

httpv://youtu.be/WesdWeC4_II

1:30 PM | Hurricane Isaac bears down on the Louisiana coast

Paul Dorian

Discussion

Isaac has now reached official hurricane status as it continues to bear down on the Louisiana coastline for a possible landfall later tonight into early Wednesday. The latest measurements indicate that there are sustained winds at 75 mph, central pressure is down to 975 millibars, and the storm movement is towards the NW at 10 mph. There have already been some impressive wind gust reports of 64 mph at Grand Isle, La and 82 mph at a buoy just offshore. One of the big concerns about Isaac is that it looks like it’ll continue to be a slow mover over the next 24-48 hours; consequently, tremendous amounts of rainfall are quite likely – perhaps 20+ inches in some sections of Louisiana and Mississippi – with inland flooding the result. The extent of Isaac’s circulation and moisture field is actually quite vast. In fact, Charleston, South Carolina has had some flooding today with more than 3 inches of rain already reported as a result of Isaac. Eventually, after moving through Louisiana, it looks like the remains of Isaac will head northward towards Arkansas and Missouri before looping back to the east and potentially contributing to rainfall in the Mid-Atlantic region later this Labor Day weekend.

Video

httpv://youtu.be/hxZefVTvOCM

7:00 AM | High pressure continues to dominate; slight cooling trend for the second half of the week

Paul Dorian

6-Day Forecast

Today

Mostly sunny skies, breezy, highs in the mid 70’s

Tonight

Partly cloudy, breezy, lows in the upper 60’s

Wednesday

Mostly sunny skies, breezy, highs in the low-to-mid 70’s

Wednesday Night

Mostly clear, mild, mid 60’s

Thursday

Mostly sunny skies, pleasant, highs in the low 70’s

Friday

Mostly sunny skies after some early morning fog, pleasant, highs in the low 70’s

Saturday

Mostly sunny skies after early morning fog, pleasant, highs in the low 70’s

Sunday

Mostly sunny skies after early morning fog, pleasant, highs in the low 70’s

Discussion

High pressure continues to dominate the scene around here so sunshine should be quite prevalent for the next few days. There will, however, be a slight cooling trend as the week progresses as there will likely be an increasing onshore flow. As far as Isaac is concerned, it continues on a track that will bring it onto the Louisiana coastline by later tonight. It is still undergoing an intensification process with central pressure now down to 976 millibars and its movement to the NW has slowed down to only 6 mph. Tremendous rainfall amounts - perhaps on the order of 20 to 25 inches - are possible across parts of Louisiana over the next couple of days given the slow movement of Isaac. For more details on Isaac view today's video.

Video

httpv://youtu.be/3NL07YOEjy0

7:00 AM | Back to the 90's again for today

Paul Dorian

6-Day Forecast

Today

Mostly sunny, hot, mid 90’s

Tonight

Partly cloudy, mild, breezy, lows in the low 60’s

Wednesday

Mostly sunny, hot, low-to-mid 90’s

Wednesday Night

Mostly cloudy, mild, low 60’s

Thursday

Mostly sunny, very warm, near 90

Friday

Mainly sunny, very warm, upper 80’s

Saturday

Mainly sunny, warm, mid-to-upper 80’s

Sunday

Mainly sunny, warm, maybe a shower or thunderstorm, mid-to-upper 80’s

Discussion

Upper level high pressure will continue over the area on Tuesday and temperatures will respond by climbing to the 90’s once again. Sub-tropical moisture will be limited so rainfall chances will be at a minimum over the next couple of days. Temperatures will trend downward as the second half of the week progresses. As far as Isaac is concerned, it continues on a track that will bring it onto the Louisiana coastline by later tonight. It is still undergoing an intensification process with central pressure now down to 976 millibars and its movement to the NW has slowed down to only 6 mph. Tremendous rainfall amounts - perhaps on the order of 20 to 25 inches - are possible across parts of Louisiana over the next couple of days given the slow movement of Isaac. For more details on Isaac view today's video.

Video

httpv://youtu.be/3NL07YOEjy0

2:30 PM | Isaac continues on a track that threatens New Orleans, Louisiana

Paul Dorian

Discussion

Tropical Storm Isaac continues on a track towards the Louisiana coastline and its storm surge will likely be quite significant and dangerous along the central Gulf Coast by mid-week. The latest official measurements indicate sustained winds are holding at 65 mph with gusts up to 75 mph; however, the central pressure has dropped impressively during the past few hours down to 984 millibars and this is indicative of strengthening. In reality, it is quite possible that this tropical system is already strong enough to be officially classified as a minimal hurricane, and intensification should continue over the next 24 hours or so. It looks like landfall at the Louisiana coastline may occur later tomorrow night and torrential rain will continue into Wednesday in that region. In fact, there are some indications that the storm will slow down or stall shortly after reaching the Louisiana coast which would mean incredible rainfall amounts may be in the offing and serious inland flooding. Eventually, after moving through Louisiana, it looks like the remains of Isaac will heads towards Arkansas and Missouri before looping back to the east and potentially contributing to rainfall in the Northeast or Mid-Atlantic later this weekend or early next week. The active pattern in the tropics will continue for the next couple of weeks and we’ll continue to monitor any potential threat to the East Coast.

7:00 AM | Nice weather pattern for southern California; Isaac to strengthen as it approaches the central Gulf states

Paul Dorian

6-Day Forecast

Today

Mostly sunny skies, breezy, highs in the low 70’s

Tonight

Partly cloudy, breezy, lows in the mid 60’s

Tuesday

Mostly sunny skies, breezy, highs in the mid 70’s

Tuesday Night

Mostly clear, mild, mid 60’s

Wednesday

Mostly sunny skies, pleasant, highs in the low 70’s

Thursday

Mostly sunny skies, pleasant, highs in the low 70’s

Friday

Mostly sunny skies after early morning fog, pleasant, highs in the low 70’s

Saturday

Mostly sunny skies after early morning fog, pleasant, highs in the low 70’s

Discussion

High pressure expands to the west coast today and dry, pleasantly warm conditions will continue in the LA metro region for much of the week. Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Isaac will strengthen over the next 24-48 hours as it approaches the central Gulf coastal states of Louisiana and Mississippi. It is likely to make landfall in that region by mid-week - possibly even reaching major hurricane status (ie category 3 or higher) beforehand.

Video

httpv://youtu.be/Y4jCAOD8Juw

7:00 AM | Isaac to strengthen as it approaches the central Gulf coast; hot again here through tomorrow

Paul Dorian

6-Day Forecast

Today

Mostly sunny, hot, mid 90’s

Tonight

Partly cloudy, mild, breezy, lows in the low 60’s

Tuesday

Mostly sunny, hot, low 90’s

Tuesday Night

Mostly cloudy, mild, low 60’s

Wednesday

Mostly sunny, hot, low 90’s

Thursday

Mainly sunny, very warm, maybe a shower or thunderstorm, upper 80’s

Friday

Mainly sunny, very warm, upper 80’s

Saturday

Mainly sunny, warm, mid-to-upper 80’s

Discussion

Tropical Storm Isaac is now located over the eastern Gulf of Mexico with sustained winds of 65 mph and it is moving WNW at 13 mph. Isaac will strengthen over the next 24-48 as it heads on a course that takes it towards the central Gulf coast states of Louisiana and Mississippi with landfall possible on Wednesday. Intensification should bring about hurricane status for Isaac over the next 24 hours and there is the chance for it to strengthen enough to reach major hurricane status (category 3 or higher) as it approaches the central Gulf coast. Warm waters and better atmospheric conditions (less wind shear, less dry air) will lead to the strengthening over the next 24-48 hours. There has not been a major hurricane hit on the US since Hurricane Wilma in October 2005 and that is a record amount of time between major hurricane hits in the US. One other note, while Hurricane Katrina was of course devastating for the New Orleans metro region, it was actually weakening from category 5 status to 4 and then 3 upon making landfall whereas the potential problem here with Isaac is that it very well could be strengthening from a category 1 to 2 and possibly even a 3 right before landfall. Closer to home, upper level high pressure continues to remain anchored over the area and temperatures will respond by reaching the 90’s both today and tomorrow.

Video

httpv://youtu.be/Y4jCAOD8Juw

1:00 PM | Isaac will now go through an intensification process as it heads out over the Gulf of Mexico

Paul Dorian

Discussion

Isaac is still a tropical storm, but it is now out over the open waters of the Florida Straits as it approaches the southern Florida Keys. This will begin the intensification phase for Isaac as it should reach hurricane status within 24 hours on its way to the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Isaac should then continue on a track towards the central Gulf coast (i.e. Louisiana/Mississippi/Alabama) by Tuesday/Wednesday and this includes the possibility of heading right towards the New Orleans metro region. Also, there is a chance that Isaac will intensify into major hurricane status (ie category 3 or higher) as it approaches the central Gulf coast later this week. There has not been a major hurricane hit on the US mainland since Wilma in October 2005.

7:00 AM | Nice weather for the weekend

Paul Dorian

6-Day Forecast

Today

Mostly sunny skies after early morning fog, pleasant, highs in the low 70’s

Tonight

Partly cloudy, mild, fog possible late, mid 60’s

Saturday

Mostly sunny skies after early morning fog, pleasant, highs in the mid 70’s

Saturday Night

Mostly clear, mild, mid 60’s

Sunday

Mostly sunny skies after early morning fog, pleasant, highs in the mid 70’s

Monday

Mostly sunny skies after early morning fog, still pleasant, mid 70’s

Tuesday

Mainly sunny skies, warmer, upper 70’s

Wednesday

Mainly sunny skies, pleasant, mid 70’s

Discussion

Upper level high pressure situated near the coast will control our weather through the weekend. While there can be some late night and early morning fog along the coast, just about all sectors should feature some afternoon clearing skies along with generally pleasant temperature readings over the next few days.