3:20 PM | Hope for a white Christmas

Discussion

The US has largely avoided any sustained cold weather during the month of December and accumulating snow has been quite sparse. At the same time, several regions around the world have suffered through some serious cold spells with snow including in much of Europe, Asia, western Canada and Alaska. The overall weather pattern here in the US will indeed undergo some changes over the next couple of weeks that will bring some fresh Arctic cold and accumulating snow to many sections beginning as early as this weekend to the Rockies, Northern Plains and Great Lakes, and eventually, signs point to cold and perhaps snow reaching the Northeast during the second half of December.

One of the indexes we closely monitor during the winter season here at thesiweather.com is the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) since it can sometimes be a leading indicator for pattern changes in the Northeast US, and it appears that this index will soon drop sharply into negative territory which often leads to more sustained cold air outbreaks in this part of the country. There are even some very early signs for a storm to arrive into the East early in the week after next, at the same time there will likely be cold air around. All of this will be closely monitored over the next several days and gives some hope for those that wish for a white Christmas.

Video

httpv://youtu.be/ZCXYq0aVbcA

7:00 AM | Much colder weather headed our way for the second half of the weekend with single digits possible and some accumulating snow

6-Day Forecast

Today

Partly sunny, chilly, low 50’s

Tonight

Mostly cloudy, cold, lows in the upper 20’s

Saturday

Increasing clouds, colder, maybe a few snow showers late, low 40's

Saturday Night

Mostly cloudy, much colder, some snow likely, low teens

Sunday

Clouds early with some snow still possible then becoming partly sunny, very cold, highs only near 20 degees and single digits possible at night

Monday

Mostly sunny, cold, low 30’s

Tuesday

Partly sunny, still cold, mid 30’s

Wednesday

Mostly sunny, not quite as cold, low 40’s

Discussion

Big changes are in store for much of the country by later this weekend and the southern Rockies will change quite drastically from the recent stretch of above-normal temperatures to well below normal by Saturday night and Sunday. There is also the chance for some snow to accompany this transition to much colder conditions on Saturday night and early Sunday as a storm pulls out of the Rockies towards the Central Plains and then into the Great Lakes. Temperatures Sunday night could very well bottom out in the single digits during the lowest point of this next cold wave.

Video

httpv://youtu.be/ZKnrOlac9bA

7:00 AM | Pattern likely to continue with late night/early morning fog and low clouds

6-Day Forecast

Today

Patchy fog early then becoming mostly sunny, cool, mid 60’s

Tonight

Mostly clear early, some fog and clouds late, cool, lows in the low 50’s

Saturday

Patchy fog early then becoming mostly sunny, cool, low-to-mid 60’s

Saturday Night

Partly cloudy early, fog late, cool, low 50’s

Sunday

Patchy fog early then becoming mostly sunny, cool, mid 60’s

Monday

Mostly sunny, milder, upper 60’s

Tuesday

Mostly sunny, pleasant, upper 60’s

Wednesday

Mostly sunny, cool, low-to-mid 60’s

Discussion

The main theme over the next couple of days will be for some late night and early morning low clouds and fog; especially, along coastal regions, and then afternoon gradual clearing skies and this will be accompanied by relatively cool temperatures.

Video

httpv://youtu.be/ZKnrOlac9bA

7:00 AM | Cool with the daily threat for late night and early morning low clouds and fog

6-Day Forecast

Today

Patchy fog early then becoming mostly sunny, cool, highs near 60 degrees

Tonight

Mostly clear early, some fog and clouds late, cool, lows in the mid 50’s

Friday

Patchy fog early then becoming partly sunny, not quite as cool, mid 60’s

Friday Night

Partly cloudy early, fog late, cool, low 50’s

Saturday

Patchy fog early then becoming mostly sunny, cool, low-to-mid 60’s

Sunday

Patchy fog early then becoming mostly sunny, cool, low-to-mid 60’s

Monday

Patchy fog early then becoming mostly sunny, cool, mid 60’s

Tuesday

Mostly sunny, cool, low-to-mid 60’s

Discussion

A pattern change has occurred and the main theme over the next several days will be for some late night and early morning low clouds and fog; especially, along coastal regions and this will be accompanied by relatively cool temperatures.

Video

httpv://youtu.be/g7z_YwfGFkQ

7:00 AM | Big changes coming for the southern Rockies with a very cold air mass by late this weekend and the threat for accumulating snow

6-Day Forecast

Today

Mostly cloudy, much cooler, maybe a couple of showers, highs in the low 50’s

Tonight

Partly cloudy, cold, lows in the upper 20’s

Friday

Partly sunny, chilly, near 50

Friday Night

Mostly cloudy, cold, upper 20’s

Saturday

Increasing clouds and colder, some snow possible late in the day or at night, upper 30’s

Sunday

Cloudy and even colder with some snow possible, mid-to-upper 20’s

Monday

Partly sunny, cold, low 30’s

Tuesday

Mostly sunny, cold, low 30's

Discussion

Big changes are in store for much of the country by later this weekend and early next week and the southern Rockies will change quite drastically from the recent stretch of above-normal temperatures to well below normal by the time next week rolls around. There is also the chance for some accumulating snow to accompany the transition to much colder conditions later in the weekend as a storm pulls out of the Rockies towards the Plains and then towards the Great Lakes.

Video

httpv://youtu.be/g7z_YwfGFkQ

11:25 AM | Solar Cycle 24 Update - it continues to "underwhelm"

Discussion

We are currently well over three years into Solar Cycle 24 and it continues to “underwhelm” and be on a pace that would make it the smallest sunspot cycle since Cycle 14 which peaked in 1906. Currently, solar activity is quite low with only a couple of sunspot regions now visible on the Earth side of the sun and this is despite the fact that this cycle is rapidly approaching an expected solar maximum during the mid or latter part of 2013. Cycle 24 began after an unusually deep solar minimum that lasted from 2007 to 2009 which included more spotless days on the sun compared to any minimum in almost a century. While a weaker solar cycle does not rule out the threat for strong solar storms, it does suggest that they will occur less often than during the stronger and more active cycles.

The increasingly likely outcome for a weak solar cycle continues the recent downward trend in sunspot cycle strength that began with solar cycle 22 over twenty years ago. In addition, there are some solar scientists who are already predicting that the next cycle, 25, will be even weaker than the current one. According to some research studies, weak solar cycles with extended lengths may actually have a negative effect on global temperatures in the longer range. There have been historical periods with minimal sunspot activity that lasted for several decades such as from the mid 1600’s to the early 1700’s when the so-called “Maunder Minimum” occurred and this period was quite cold globally.

Another interesting aspect to these solar predictions is that this potential long-term period of weak and extended solar cycles looks like it will coincide with a cold phase of the Pacific Ocean (negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation). The Pacific Ocean seemingly slipped into a cold phase a few years ago and these longer-term oceanic phases tend to last for two or three decades. We’ll continue to periodically report on the latest sunspot activity and also the Pacific Ocean sea surface temperature anomalies here at “thesiweather.com” to monitor any changes that may unfold.

Video

httpv://youtu.be/Fs39vqSGYRw

7:00 AM | Mild again today, but it should get much cooler tomorrow and then even colder late in the weekend with the threat for accumulating snow

6-Day Forecast

Today

More clouds than sun, warm, highs in the upper 60’s

Tonight

Mostly cloudy, chilly, lows in the mid-to-upper 30’s

Thursday

Partly sunny, much cooler, low 50’s

Thursday Night

Partly cloudy, chilly, upper 20’s

Friday

Mostly sunny, chilly, upper 40’s

Saturday

Partly sunny, cold, near 40

Sunday

Mostly cloudy, even colder, snow is possible with accumulations a real threat, near 30

Monday

Mostly sunny, cold, low 30's

Discussion

West-to-east flow continues from the Pacific Ocean to the central Rockies and we’ll experience more mild conditions as a result for hump day. Temperatures today should climb well into the 60’s, but changes are coming. First, it’ll turn cooler on Thursday behind the first frontal system coming our way and then an even colder air mass is likely to reach the region later in the weekend possibly accompanied by some snow or snow shower activity by the time Sunday rolls around.

Video

httpv://youtu.be/jsrGUwe1F2E

7:00 AM | Pattern changes to one with persistent late night and early morning low clouds and fog

6-Day Forecast

Today

Morning low clouds and fog then gradually becoming partly sunny, cool, mid 60’s

Tonight

Mostly clear early, some fog and clouds late, cool, lows in the mid 50’s

Thursday

Morning low clouds and fog then becoming partly sunny, cool, low-to-mid 60’s

Thursday Night

Partly cloudy early, fog late, cool, mid 50’s

Friday

Patchy fog early then becoming mostly sunny, cool, low-to-mid 60’s

Saturday

Patchy fog early then becoming mostly sunny, cool, low-to-mid 60’s

Sunday

Patchy fog early then becoming mostly sunny, cool, low-to-mid 60’s

Monday

Mostly sunny, cool, mid 60’s

Discussion

Our overall weather pattern is changing to one that will include persistent late night and early morning low clouds and fog along with relatively cool conditions. Low pressure will approach us later this week and this will help to keep us on the cool side.

Video

httpv://youtu.be/jsrGUwe1F2E

12:30 PM | The pounding continues out West

Discussion

The pounding continues today along the West Coast from San Francisco to Seattle as the atmospheric fire hose continues, and the numbers over the past week are quite remarkable. A series of powerhouse storms and frontal systems since late November have left behind flooded rivers and downed trees with scattered power outages in this part of the country. The hardest hit region has been across northern California where the rain totals have risen to nearly two feet since the onslaught began (23.48 inches at Brandy Creek, CA; 21.24 at Sterling City, CA; 17.50 inches at Petrolia, CA; 15.16 inches at Oak Mountain, CA; 12.55 inches at Secret Town, CA). Heavy rain has also piled up in Oregon and Washington with 12.35 inches reported so far in O’Brien, OR and 9.03 inches at Wynoochee Lake, WA. Even in places farther south there have been generous rainfall amounts during this period with 4-8 inches in the central Sacramento Valley and 2-4 inches in the San Joaquin Valley. San Francisco Intl Airport has recorded more than 4 inches of rain since November 27th and more is falling there today.

Winds and snow have also been on the extreme side in some locations during this stormy week. There have been wind gusts of up to 150 mph recorded at Mammoth Mountain, CA, 113 mph at central Wasatch Peaks, UT, 95 mph near Reno, NV, 74 mph in Newport, OR, and 50 mph at San Francisco Intl Airport. General snowfall amounts of around 2 feet have accumulated in the Sierra Nevada Mountains of California, a foot and a half at West Yellowstone, MT, and the highest total measured so far is 45.0 inches at Mt. Rose, CA.

7:00 AM | Better weather begins today and continues all week

6-Day Forecast

Today

Fog possible early then becoming partly sunny, cool, mid 60’s

Tonight

Mostly clear, cool, lows in the mid 50’s

Wednesday

Mostly sunny, not quite as cool, upper 60’s

Wednesday Night

Partly cloudy, cool, mid 50’s

Thursday

Mostly sunny, cool, mid 60’s

Friday

Partly sunny, cool, mid 60’s

Saturday

Mostly sunny, still cool, mid 60’s

Sunday

Mostly sunny, cool, mid 60’s

Discussion

The last in a series of frontal systems affected the region with more clouds and showers yesterday, but improving weather conditions are now on the way. In fact, each day for the rest of the week should feature at least some sunshine with near normal temperatures and no big storms or strong frontal systems to deal with in southern California. Farther north, a different story as another dose of heavy rain is likely over the next 24 hours from northern California to the Pacific Northwest.

Video

httpv://youtu.be/UaovLnwaX7E