1:15 PM | Winter hangs on in the southern Rockies and the Northern Plains - and for the New York Mets

Discussion

I’m not sure what the latest date is for a “snow-out” in major league baseball history, but if any team is going to threaten that record it is likely to be the New York Mets. They have had the unfortunate early season scheduling of going from Minneapolis, MN this past weekend to Denver, CO on Monday and have now been postponed on consecutive days due to springtime snow and ice. This is the first time the Mets have been postponed on consecutive days since Hurricane Irene hit the east coast in August of 2011.

Indeed, it is beginning to look like this may be a year without a spring across the Northern Plains and winter is hanging on tightly in the southern Rockies as well. Sunday saw the biggest 24-hour snowstorm ever in Bismarck, ND with 17.3 inches of accumulation and, at the same time, snow and ice caused the postponement of the Mets/Twins game in Minneapolis. Yesterday, the Mets/Rockies game was postponed in Denver as 7 inches of snow fell in the metro region which follows last week’s 6.5 inches of accumulation. Just to the north and northwest of Denver, 12-18 inches of snow accumulated on Monday from Boulder, CO to Fort Collins, CO and similar amounts are likely today in places like Cheyenne, WY and Laramie, WY.

Yesterday’s game was the first one “snowed out” in Denver since April 3rd of 2011. The Mets and Rockies will try to play a doubleheader later today and tonight, but the very latest weather observation in Denver had 32 degrees with 30 mph winds and snow showers in the general vicinity. The coldest game ever played in Denver occurred on April 12, 1997, against the Montreal Expos when the temperature was only 28 degrees. There is actually even more uncertainty for the game planned for tomorrow night in Denver between the Mets and Rockies as heavy snow is likely to re-develop there later tonight and continue through much of the day on Wednesday with an additional 6+ inches of accumulation expected by the time this latest storm exits to the east early Thursday. This next round of snow will again spread to the north and east over the next few days from the southern Rockies to the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest with a foot or more possible in spots. Finally, the final game of this four game series between the Mets and Rockies is planned for Thursday afternoon and while it’ll be very cold, it looks like it will be dry enough to allow for the game to be played. The Mets then return home to New York City for a scheduled game Friday night against the Nationals, and, wouldn’t you know it, heavy rain will be approaching from the west by around that time as a strong cold front approaches the region.

7:00 AM | **More significant accumulating springtime snow in the picture for the southern Rockies**

6-Day Forecast

Today

Mostly cloudy, breezy, cold, snow showers and freezing drizzle likely this morning, rain or snow showers this afternoon, highs in the low 40’s

Tonight

Cloudy, cold, rain and/or snow early then snow late, lows in the mid-to-upper 20’s

Wednesday

Cloudy, windy, cold, periods of snow, low 30’s

Wednesday Night

Mostly cloudy, windy, cold, periods of snow with some blowing and drifting, total accumulations from this next round on the order of half of foot, middle teens

Thursday

Partly sunny, cold, low-to-mid 30’s

Friday

Partly sunny, not as cold, mid-to-upper 40’s

Saturday

Partly sunny, mild, low 50’s

Sunday

Partly sunny, even milder, upper 50’s

Discussion

Round one is over, but round two is about to begin. There will not be any significant precipitation today as surface low pressure will remain over western Colorado today and this will only cause some snow showers and freezing drizzle at times this morning with some rain and/or snow showers expected this afternoon and evening. However, as the low pressure intensifies tonight and pulls in colder air, signficant snow will re-develop later tonight and continue through Wednesday and additional accumulations are likely in and around the Denver metro region of up to 6 inches or so by tomorrow night. The low will finally exit to the east of here by early Thursday and a warming trend will develop later in the week.

Video

httpv://youtu.be/Mhb3L64LDu0

7:00 AM | Strong winds continue in the region as a chilly air mass moves into the region; milder later this week

6-Day Forecast

Today

Partly sunny, windy, cool, highs in the low 60’s

Tonight

Mostly clear, windy, cool, lows in the low 50’s

Wednesday

Mostly sunny, still windy, cool, mid-to-upper 60’s

Wednesday Night

Mostly clear, cool, lows in the low-to-mid 50’s

Thursday

Mostly sunny, windy, milder, low-to-mid 70’s

Friday

Mostly sunny, mild, low-to-mid 70’s

Saturday

Mostly sunny, pleasant, upper 60’s

Sunday

Mostly sunny, pleasant, upper 60’s

Discussion

Broad upper level trough of low pressure will continue to create some gusty winds into tonight, but then high pressure will begin to build into the region by mid-week and this will promote a warming trend. A chilly air mass is moving into the region riding in on these strong wind gusts and it is possible that there will be some frost late tonight/early tomorrow in some of the interior central valleys. However, later this week a warm up should produce highs in the 70's across much of the region.

Video

httpv://youtu.be/Mhb3L64LDu0

12:10 PM | Weather and the Titanic disaster 101 years ago today

Discussion

As we arrive at the 101st anniversary of the sinking of the RMS Titanic (April 14-15, 1912), I thought I’d revisit the overall weather pattern that played a key role in the tragedy. By studying weather maps and written records from that time period, some definitive conclusions can be drawn about the weather during the trip across the Atlantic, and there are also some interesting new theories. First off, the voyage started off with fine weather for the first three days including light winds and mild temperatures. However, by the last night of the fateful trip, a strong cold front sweeping off the east coast of Canada, moved through that part of the North Atlantic and the temperatures dropped from the lows 40’s to near freezing in just a few hours as the ship entered an area of Arctic high pressure (actual US Weather Bureau surface weather map from April 15th, 1912 on the Facebook page). Skies were relatively clear and the stars could be seen rather easily as the moon was in a “new moon” phase. While the seas were relatively calm, a NW flow of air developed behind the front and actually steered a giant ice field towards the ship that night. Finally, at about 20 minutes before midnight, the ship hit an iceberg that has been estimated as possibly weighing up to 300,000 tons, and the ship’s hull was torn open. It then took less than three hours from that point on for the Titanic to sink and there were, of course, too few life rafts for all of the people on board. The temperature of the water was estimated to be as low as 28 degrees – even lower than the conventional 32 degree freezing point as salt helped to lower its freezing point.

Recently, there have been more unconventional theories about nature’s role in the sinking of the Titanic. For example, a recent study suggests that the nearness of the Earth to the Moon and Sun – a proximity not matched in more than 1,000 years – resulted in record tides that help explain why the Titanic encountered so much ice. Specifically, the nearness of the Earth to the Sun and Moon enhanced their gravitational pulls on the ocean and produced record tides in the weeks before the disaster. It is suggested that these record high tides refloated masses of icebergs traditionally stuck along the coastlines of Labrador and Newfoundland and sent them adrift into the North Atlantic shipping lanes.

Additionally, a second theory regarding nature’s role in the disaster contends that the icy waters created ideal conditions for an unusual cold water type mirage called a superior mirage. A superior mirage would act to bend light rays downward resulting in warped images which may have confused nearby ships trying to help with rescue efforts and could explain why icebergs may have been temporarily hidden from the lookouts on the ship that night. A superior mirage occurs when warmer, less dense air sits atop colder, more dense air – a condition known as a temperature inversion. This is the opposite of the more familiar “desert mirage” atmospheric scenario in which case the surface is very hot causing light to bend upward towards the sky which then shows the sky on the ground that looks like water. One piece of evidence that a temperature inversion existed that fateful night has to do with the fact that some of the life boat survivors recalled seeing a smoke plume “flatten” as it rose from the Titanic to a certain height. This is typical in an inversion since as the smoke plume reaches a stable layer in the atmosphere it tends to “flatten” out rather than continuing to rise. The superior mirage theory suggests that the freighter SS Californian was unable to identify the Titanic on the moonless night because even though the Titanic sailed into the Californian's view, it appeared to the crew on that ship to be too small to be the great ocean liner. Also, the crew on the SS Californian testified later that they weren’t quite sure what they were seeing on the horizon when the Titanic was shooting distress rockets into the air. The Titanic’s rockets appeared quite low in the sky – perhaps as a result of a superior mirage – not at the higher heights that the crew would have expected if indeed they were distress signals. Finally, the superior mirage may have also disrupted signals sent by the Titanic to the SS Californian with a powerful electric Morse lamp as the crew later reported that the carefully timed flashes arrived distorted and jumbled. History will never know exactly what events and conditions precipitated the Titanic disaster, but the mirage theory is backed by some eyewitness accounts and raw meteorological data.

Finally, in a strange twist to this story, the SS Californian actually suffered a similar fate as the Titanic as it was sunk during World War 1 (November 9th, 1915) by a German submarine in the eastern Mediterranean Sea. One person lost their life and the ship has never been found.

7:00 AM | **Here we go again - more accumulating springtime snow over the next few days**

6-Day Forecast

Today

Mostly cloudy, breezy, cold, snow likely at times, possibly mixed with rain, highs in the upper 30’s

Tonight

Cloudy, breezy, cold, snow likely, lows in the mid-to-upper 20’s

Tuesday

Cloudy, cold, more snow likely, possibly mixed with rain at times, upper 30’s

Tuesday Night

Mostly cloudy, cold, still the threat for some snow, low 20’s

Wednesday

Mostly cloudy, cold, snow likely, near 30

Thursday

Partly sunny, cold, mid-to-upper 30’s

Friday

Mostly cloudy, breezy, not as cold, upper 40’s

Saturday

Partly sunny, mild, low 50’s

Discussion

Here we go again! More accumulating springtime snow is headed to the southern Rockies and it is likely to be quite a long-lasting event. A storm will move towards the Great Basin region by tomorrow and then across Colorado at mid-week causing snow to develop later today, perhaps mixed with rain at times, and while the storm may ease up for awhile on Tuesday, another round of snow is likely Tuesday night and Wednesday before the system finally exits to the east. This system has to potential to dump another several inches of snow on the region (perhaps in the 4-8 inch range) by the time it all winds down at mid-week, and temperatures will stay well below normal for much of the week (normal high is now about 60 degrees for Denver).

Video

httpv://youtu.be/vWVgQdxSdYY

7:00 AM | Windy conditions for the first half of the week

6-Day Forecast

Today

Mostly cloudy, windy, cool, maybe a couple of showers, highs in the low 60’s

Tonight

Mostly cloudy, windy, cool, lows in the low-to-mid 50’s

Tuesday

Mostly sunny, very windy, cool, low 60’s

Tuesday Night

Mostly clear, cool, lows in the low-to-mid 50’s

Wednesday

Mostly sunny, still windy, seasonal temperatures, mid-to-upper 60's

Thursday

Mostly sunny, mild, low-to-mid 70’s

Friday

Mostly sunny, pleasant, near 70

Saturday

Mostly sunny, pleasant, near 70

Discussion

The new work week will begin bring a broad upper level trough of low pressure through California and Nevada and it will create some gusty winds for the region right through mid-week. In fact, winds could gust as high as 35 mph on Tuesday although skies should be partly sunny. That trough pushes to the east by mid-week and this will allow for offshore flow to develop and rather pleasant temperatures around here during the second half of the week.

Video

httpv://youtu.be/vWVgQdxSdYY

10:00 AM | Incoming solar storm...possible northern lights tonight

Discussion

Several sunspot regions have emerged in recent days during the current solar cycle (#24) and one such region, officially called AR1719, erupted on Thursday morning resulting in a coronal mass ejection (CME) directed towards the Earth. That CME is expected to reach the Earth’s upper atmosphere this evening as it is traveling some 600 miles per second. As a result, northern lights are quite possible across the northern tier of states Saturday night – perhaps as far south as Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Delaware where viewing conditions should be quite good. The eruption on the sun Thursday morning was officially classified as an M6-class eruption. Solar flares create auroras when radiation from the sun reaches Earth and interacts with charged protons in our atmosphere. The effects are greater at the magnetic poles and weaken as they move south from the Arctic or north of the Antarctic. The CME emerged from the circled area on the sun early Thursday morning (image on Facebook page).

7:00 AM | Onshore flow rules through the weekend and into early next week

6-Day Forecast

Today

Early morning fog possible; otherwise, clouds giving way to afternoon clearing skies, breezy, cooler, highs in the low 60’s

Tonight

Mostly cloudy, some patchy fog late, breezy, cool, lows in the low-to-mid 50’s

Saturday

Early morning fog possible; otherwise, remaining mostly cloudy, breezy, cool, near 60

Saturday Night

Mostly cloudy, some patchy fog late, breezy, cool, lows in the low-to-mid 50’s

Sunday

Early morning fog possible; otherwise, partly sunny, cool, near 60

Monday

Early morning fog possible; otherwise, partly sunny, cool, low 60’s

Tuesday

Early morning fog possible; otherwise, partly sunny, a bit milder, mid 60’s

Wednesday

Early morning fog possible; otherwise, partly sunny, milder, upper 60’s

Discussion

Onshore flow will continue through the weekend and right into the early part of next week producing cool conditions around here along with the typical late night and early morning low clouds and fog along coastal sections. By the middle of next week, this onshore flow should reverse and offshore flow will promote warming in the region so that highs will approach the 70 degree mark by mid-week.

Video

httpv://youtu.be/JrBUXy7oQjk

7:00 AM | A nice rebound in temperatures with highs in the middle 60's on Saturday

6-Day Forecast

Today

Partly sunny, milder, a few rain showers possible, highs near 50 degrees

Tonight

Mostly cloudy, cold, chance for rain or snow showers, lows in the low 30’s

Saturday

Mostly sunny, breezy, even milder, low-to-mid 60’s

Saturday Night

Partly cloudy, windy, chilly, upper 30’s

Sunday

Partly sunny, a bit cooler, chance for a few showers, mid 50’s

Monday

Mostly cloudy, colder, mid-to-upper 40’s

Tuesday

Mostly cloudy, breezy, cold, chance for a few snow showers, near 40

Wednesday

Partly sunny, cold, chance for snow showers, upper 30’s

Discussion

Northwest flow will bring another weak disturbance into the region today and this could spawn a few rain or showers into the evening hours. The weekend will start off on a drier and warmer note with high temperatures climbing into the 60’s, but this change will be rather short-lived. It looks an unsettled pattern will return early next week as a cooling trend develops and this could lead to some snow shower activity by Tuesday and Wednesday.

Video

httpv://youtu.be/JrBUXy7oQjk

7:00 AM | Marine layer and cooling trend returns

6-Day Forecast

Today

Sun followed by clouds, breezy, cool, highs in the mid-to-upper 60’s

Tonight

Mostly cloudy with some patchy fog late, cool, lows in the low 50’s

Friday

Early morning fog possible; otherwise, becoming mostly sunny, breezy, cool, low-to-mid 60’s

Friday Night

Mostly cloudy, some patchy fog late, breezy, cool, lows in the low 50’s

Saturday

Early morning fog possible; otherwise, partly sunny, cool, near 60

Sunday

Early morning fog possible; otherwise, mostly sunny, cool, near 60

Monday

Early morning fog possible; otherwise, partly sunny, cool, low-to-mid 60’s

Tuesday

Early morning fog possible; otherwise, partly sunny, cool, low-to-mid 60’s

Discussion

A cooling trend will begin today as an onshore flow of air reforms in the region. In addition to the cooler temperatures, the onshore flow of air will bring a return of the late night and early morning pattern with low clouds and fog along coastal regions. The marine layer will stick with us right into the early part of next week.

Video

httpv://youtu.be/jdi_andtRF0