11:40 AM | *Solar activity surges with strongest flares of the year - all three classified as X-level, the most intense type*

Discussion

Solar activity has surged in the past two days as a large sunspot region officially called AR1748 has actually generated three different solar flares classified by NASA as “X-class” eruptions, the most intense type of flare, and the strongest flares of the year so far. (Other solar flare categories include M-class, which are medium strength and C-class which are small and relatively weak). Specifically, in just the past two days, there have been three solar flares with increasing strength classified as X1.7, X2.8 and X3.2, and they signal a significant increase in solar activity. The largest X-class solar flare in this particular solar cycle (#24) was an X6.9 that occurred on August 9th, 2011.

Thus far, this recent surge in solar activity has occurred while the Earth was not in the direct line of fire, but this particular sunspot region is now rotating into that direction. Additionally, it appears another sunspot region is about to rotate into view from the sun’s eastern limb and there is reason to believe that it is quite an active region as well. All of these flares have produced strong flashes of extreme ultraviolet radiation and the NASA Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) has captured video which shows that the explosions produced coronal mass ejections (CMEs) blasting plenty of plasma material into space. These active sunspot regions will continue to be monitored over the next few days here at thesiweather.com. NOAA forecasters estimate a 40% chance of more X-flares during the next 24 hours or so.

Video

httpv://youtu.be/jsvQhBRKPCw

7:00 AM | Another day with highs in the 80's; a late day shower or thunderstorm possible

6-Day Forecast

Today

Mostly sunny, warm, chance for a shower or thunderstorm late in the day, highs in the mid 80’s

Tonight

Mostly cloudy, cool, chance for a shower or thunderstorm during the evening hours, lows near 50 degrees

Wednesday

Partly sunny, not quite as warm, chance for isolated showers and thunderstorms, mid 70’s

Wednesday Night

Mostly cloudy, cool, chance for more isolated showers, near 50

Thursday

Partly sunny, mild, upper 70’s

Friday

Mostly sunny, warm, near 80

Saturday

Partly sunny, mild, chance for a shower or thunderstorm, mid 70’s

Sunday

Partly sunny, not as mild, near 70

Discussion

Strong upper level ridging over the southern Rockies will produce another very warm day around here with high temperatures climbing once again in the 80’s. A shower or thunderstorm cannot be ruled out today or tonight, but most of the time should be rain-free. A weak upper level feature will affect the region on Wednesday possibly generating a few scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Video

httpv://youtu.be/O0uVecgW7gU

7:00 AM | Marine flow of air brings about a cooling trend beginning today

6-Day Forecast

Today

Early morning low clouds and fog then gradually becoming partly sunny, breezy, cool, highs in the upper 60's

Tonight

Becoming mostly cloudy, mild, breezy, some fog possible late, lows near 60 degrees

Wednesday

Early morning low clouds and fog then becoming partly sunny, cool, mid 60's

Wednesday Night

Mostly cloudy, mild, some fog possible late, lows near 60

Thursday

Early low clouds and fog possible then partly sunny skies, cool, mid 60’s

Friday

Early low clouds and fog possible then partly sunny skies, cool, mid 60’s

Saturday

Early low clouds and fog possible then partly sunny skies, cool, mid 60’s

Sunday

Early low clouds and fog possible then partly sunny skies, cool, upper 60’s

Discussion

High pressure generated some hot weather to begin the new work week on Monday, but a marine flow of air will begin a cooling trend today that will keep us on the cool side for much of the remainder of the week. In fact, the persistent marine flow will cause a pattern of late night and early morning low clouds and fog along coastal regions and high temperatures will struggle to escape the 60’s as compared with the 80’s that started the week.

Video

httpv://youtu.be/O0uVecgW7gU

7:00 AM | A taste of summer with strong upper level ridging and highs in the 80's to start the week

6-Day Forecast

Today

Mostly sunny, warm, highs in the low-to-mid 80’s

Tonight

Mostly clear, cool, lows in the lower 50's

Tuesday

Mostly sunny, still warm, chance for isolated showers and thunderstorms, low-to-mid 80’s

Tuesday Night

Mostly cloudy, cool, chance for more isolated showers, near 50

Wednesday

Partly sunny, not quite as warm, chance for a shower or thunderstorm, low-to-mid 70’s

Thursday

Partly sunny, mild, upper 70’s

Friday

Partly sunny, mild, upper 70’s

Saturday

Partly sunny, mild, chance for a shower or thunderstorm, mid-to-upper 70’s

Discussion

Strong upper level ridging has moved over the southern Rockies region and the result will be mainly dry weather with temperatures likely climbing into the 80's both today and Tuesday. There will be a slight cool down during the mid-week as a weak cool front passes through the region, but highs will still generally reach the 70's during the second half of the week.

Video

httpv://youtu.be/LeWK68xtX8s

7:00 AM | Marine layer keeps late night and early morning clouds around and temperatures for much of the week will be on the cool side

6-Day Forecast

Today

Early morning low clouds and fog then gradually becoming partly sunny, windy, pleasant, highs in the low-to-mid 70’s

Tonight

Becoming mostly cloudy, mild, breezy, some fog possible late, lows near 60 degrees

Tuesday

Early morning low clouds and fog then becoming partly sunny, pleasant, low-to-mid 70’s

Tuesday Night

Mostly cloudy, mild, some fog possible late, lows near 60

Wednesday

Early low clouds and fog possible then partly sunny skies, cool, upper 60’s

Thursday

Early low clouds and fog possible then partly sunny skies, cool, upper 60’s

Friday

Early low clouds and fog possible then partly sunny skies, cool, upper 60’s

Saturday

Early low clouds and fog possible then partly sunny skies, cool, mid-to-upper 60’s

Discussion

Low pressure will move onshore over the next day or so, but it’ll be well north of the region; consequently, it won’t have much of an effect here. A marine layer will dominate over the next few days and that will cause a persistent pattern of late night and early morning low clouds and fog and temperatures will generally stay on the cool side of normal.

Video

httpv://youtu.be/LeWK68xtX8s

1:30 PM | Quiet tornado season continues as a result of the spring chill; now at a 60-year low for the past 12 months

Discussion

With yet another widespread cold air mass headed for the Midwest, Mid-Atlantic and New England later this weekend, it is time to update the positive aspects of this cool spring with regards to tornadoes. Indeed, tornado activity for the 12 months is now the lowest it has been in 60 years (since 1954) and the number of fatalities has dropped significantly since the very active 2011 severe weather season. Through Thursday, there have been three tornado related fatalities compared to two years ago when more than 500 people were killed as a result of tornado activity.

In terms of the number of tornadoes, the year-to-date count is approaching the lowest 10% of all years on record according to NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma. Only three tornadoes have formed so far in the month of May which is usually the USA’s most active month, and all three were rated at the weakest classification level (EF-0). According to NOAA, April 2013 ended up with 83 official tornado reports as compared with 206 last year and 758 in 2011. March 2013 ended up with only 18 tornadoes as compared with 154 last year and 75 in 2011.

In terms of the cause of the quiet tornado season, the cold has been so relentless across the Rockies, Plains, South and East during the past couple of months that it has stopped in its tracks one necessary requirement for severe weather and that is the advance northward of very warm and humid air from the Gulf of Mexico. This upcoming cold air outbreak will send many places 15 to 20 degrees below normal for this time of year later this weekend and early next week and it will no doubt inhibit tornado activity during that stretch of weather.

7:00 AM | Unsettled through tomorrow; warming trend begins Sunday and the low 80's are possible early next week

6-Day Forecast

Today

Partly sunny, mild, chance for showers and thunderstorms, highs in the mid-to-upper 60’s

Tonight

Mostly cloudy, chilly, chance for showers and thunderstorms, lows in the low-to-mid 40’s

Saturday

Partly sunny, mild, chance for scattered showers, mid-to-upper 60’s

Saturday Night

Mostly cloudy, chilly, chance for more showers, mid 40’s

Sunday

Partly sunny, milder, low-to-mid 70's

Monday

Mostly sunny, even warmer, low 80's

Tuesday

Partly sunny, warm, low 80’s

Wednesday

Partly sunny, not as warm, chance for showers and thunderstorms, low 70’s

Discussion

It’ll stay somewhat cool and unsettled through tomorrow, but then warmer and drier conditions are likely early next week. In fact, high temperatures could reach the low-to-mid 70's on Sunday and then the low 80's on Monday and Tuesday afternoons as upper level ridging develops over the region.

Video

httpv://youtu.be/IxYrCg4PV30

7:00 AM | Warming trend sets in this weekend and the late night and early morning low clouds and fog will persist along coastal sections

6-Day Forecast

Today

Early morning low clouds and fog then gradually becoming mostly sunny, cool, highs in the mid 60’s

Tonight

Becoming mostly cloudy, mild, some fog possible late, lows in the upper 50’s

Saturday

Early morning low clouds and fog then becoming partly sunny, not as cool, upper 60’s

Saturday Night

Mostly cloudy, mild, some fog possible late, lows near 60

Sunday

Early low clouds and fog possible then partly sunny skies, mild, low 70’s

Monday

Early low clouds and fog possible then mostly sunny skies, pleasant, low 70’s

Tuesday

Early fog then mostly sunny, pleasant, near 70

Wednesday

Early fog then mostly sunny, cooler, mid-to-upper 60’s

Discussion

Low pressure finally exists to the east today and this will help to set off a warming trend so that by late in the weekend high temperatures will be back up in the 70’s. High pressure will build into the region this weekend and dry conditions will dominate, but there will be some late night and early morning low clouds and fog along coastal regions.

Video

httpv://youtu.be/IxYrCg4PV30

7:00 AM | A continuation of the unsettled conditions for the next few days; warmer air by late in the weekend

6-Day Forecast

Today

Mostly cloudy, cool, chance for showers and thunderstorms; especially, during the afternoon hours, highs in the upper 50’s

Tonight

Mostly cloudy, chilly, chance for showers and thunderstorms, lows in the low 40’s

Friday

Partly sunny, mild, chance for showers and thunderstorms, mid 60’s

Friday Night

Mostly cloudy, chilly, chance for more showers, low 40’s

Saturday

Mostly cloudy, cool, chance for showers and thunderstorms, low 60's

Sunday

Partly sunny, milder, near 70

Monday

Mostly sunny, warmer, upper 70’s

Tuesday

Partly sunny, warm, near 80

Discussion

Slow-moving upper level low pressure will continue to produce unsettled conditions around here right into the first part of the weekend with occasional showers and thunderstorms and some of the rain can be heavy at times. In general, temperatures will stay on the cool side for the next few days, but by the latter part of the weekend and for the early part of next week highs could reach or even surpass the 80 degree mark.

Video

httpv://youtu.be/TTuaxPuFagc

7:00 AM | Still a little bit unsettled, but high pressure builds back into the region this weekend

6-Day Forecast

Today

Becoming partly sunny, breezy, mild, highs near 70 degrees

Tonight

Becoming mostly cloudy, mild, some fog possible late, lows in the upper 50’s

Friday

Early low clouds and fog possible then partly sunny skies, cool, mid-to-upper 60’s

Friday Night

Mostly cloudy, mild, some fog possible late, lows near 60

Saturday

Early low clouds and fog possible then partly sunny skies, cool, upper 60’s

Sunday

Early low clouds and fog possible then mostly sunny skies, pleasant, low 70’s

Monday

Early fog then mostly sunny, milder, low-to-mid 70’s

Tuesday

Early fog then partly sunny, mild, low-to-mid 70’s

Discussion

Some clouds will remain in the southern California region over the next couple of days as low pressure lingers and there can even be some shower activity in the mountains. High pressure will take over this weekend and a slight warming trend will begin and continue into early next week.

Video

httpv://youtu.be/TTuaxPuFagc