12:20 PM | The month of July was cooler-than-normal on a nationwide basis; August also looks cool for most

Discussion

The month of July ended on a cool note throughout a good part of the country with 1456 cold temperature records set nationwide in the past week compared to only 130 warm temperature records. In fact, in dramatic contrast with last summer, the nation as a whole ended up cooler-than-normal for July by 0.47 degrees Celsius (source NCEP CFSv2) despite the excessive heat in the Northeast US during an 8-day stretch from the 14th to the 21st. The two main areas across the country that ended July with warmer-than-normal temperatures included the Northeast and the western US. In the Mid-Atlantic region, warmer-than-normal temperatures for July increased as one headed up I-95 with DC at +1.4 degrees, Philly +2.5 degrees, and New York City +3.3 degrees.

As far as August is concerned, it appears that the recent pattern of cooler-than-normal weather across the Central Plains, Midwest, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast will continue. The latest NCEP CFSv2 forecast map of temperature anomalies for August has the vast majority of the nation cooler-than-normal with the only exceptions being parts of the Pacific Northwest and the Gulf coastal region in the south-central part of the country.

7:00 AM | Pattern of late night and early morning low clouds and fog will continue

6-Day Forecast

Today

Patchy fog early then becoming mostly sunny, breezy, cool, highs near 70 degrees along coastal locations

Tonight

Mostly cloudy, breezy, mild, some fog possible late, lows in the low-to-mid 60’s

Thursday

Patchy fog early then becoming mostly sunny, cool, near 70

Thursday Night

Mostly cloudy, mild, some fog late, low-to-mid 60’s

Friday

Patchy fog early then becoming mostly sunny, cool, near 70

Saturday

Patchy fog early then becoming mostly sunny, cool, near 70

Sunday

Patchy fog early then becoming mostly sunny, cool, near 70

Monday

Patchy fog early then becoming mostly sunny, cool, near 70

Discussion

An upper level low to our northwest will produce persistent on shore later this week and weekend and this will keep coastal regions on the cool side of normal for this time of year. Late night and early morning low clouds and fog will persist in this pattern for the foreseeable future.

Video

httpv://youtu.be/su__igLBJFY

7:00 AM | Subtropical moisture retreats for today, but will return later this week

6-Day Forecast

Today

Mostly sunny, very warm, highs in the upper 80’s

Tonight

Mostly cloudy, mild, slight chance for showers and thunderstorms, lows in the lower 60’s

Thursday

Mostly sunny, very warm, slight chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms, near 90

Thursday Night

Partly cloudy, mild, maybe a shower or thunderstorm, mid 60’s

Friday

Partly sunny, very warm, slight chance for showers and thunderstorms, near 90

Saturday

Mostly sunny, very warm, slight chance for showers and thunderstorms, upper 80’s

Sunday

Partly sunny, very warm, slight chance for a shower and thunderstorm, upper 80’s

Monday

Mostly sunny, warm, slight chance for a shower and thunderstorm, mid 80’s

Discussion

An upper level ridge will be centered south of Colorado for today and this will allow for some subtropical moisture in the region, but not quite as prevalent as in recent days. By later this week, however, the center of the ridge will shift to the east and this may allow more moisture to move back into the region from our southwest. As a result, the threat for showers and thunderstorms will resume later this week and continue this weekend. For the next several days, high temperatures will not be far from the 90 degree mark which is right about normal for this time of year in Denver.

Video

httpv://youtu.be/su__igLBJFY

1:30 PM | Comet PANSTAARS was a disappointment, the cicada invasion was a dud, and now Comet ISON may turn out to be a bust

Discussion

Meteorologists are not the only ones to have occasional trouble making accurate predictions – astronomers and entomologists can certainly be added to the list. First, there was Comet PANSTAARS which was supposed to be an impressive sight in the April skies, but it generally turned out to be a disappointment. Then there was the predicted massive 17-year cicada invasion which turned out to be sporadic at best in the Mid-Atlantic region. Now, it is looking more and more like the so-called “Comet of the Century”, Comet ISON, indeed may turn out to be a bust.

Astronomers have found that Comet ISON, which is currently moving towards the sun at 16 miles per second, has not brightened since mid-January. This might be the case if the comet is already out of ice particles in its body which melt as the comet moves closer to the sun creating a long, bright tail. Another theory is that the comet is covered in a layer of dust that snuffs out water vapor and other gasses that brighten the comet. Recent quotes from astronomers don’t hold out much hope and include such words as “Comet ISON has been on a standstill for more than 132 days” and “the future of comet ISON does not look bright”. Comet ISON was supposed to put on a spectacular show late this year as it is due to pass about 724,000 miles from the sun on November 28th. This relatively close pass was expected to create a massive tail that some scientists had predicted would even be visible in daylight.

The forecast should start firming up a bit in the near future. Comet ISON — whose nucleus is thought to be just 3 to 4 miles (4.8 to 6.5 km) wide — is slated to cross the "frost line" within the next few weeks, scientists say. This boundary, which lies about 230 to 280 million miles (370 to 450 million km) from the sun, marks the point at which ISON's water ice will start boiling off into space. (Until now, most of its activity has been driven by sublimating carbon dioxide.) ISON should brighten as it crosses the frost line, and scientists and skywatchers should get a better idea of how tough the comet is, researchers say. Some inbound comets haven't survived their trip past the frost line.

Throw in the Phillies season with the comets and the bugs and there certainly have been some disappointments this year.

7:00 AM | Warmer today with highs climbing well up into the 80's

6-Day Forecast

Today

Mostly sunny, warmer, isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms, highs in the mid 80’s

Tonight

Partly cloudy, mild, lows in the lower 60’s

Wednesday

Mostly sunny, warm, slight chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms, mid-to-upper 80’s

Wednesday Night

Partly cloudy, mild, maybe a shower or thunderstorm, low 60’s

Thursday

Mostly sunny, very warm, slight chance for showers and thunderstorms, upper 80’s

Friday

Mostly sunny, very warm, slight chance for showers and thunderstorms, upper 80’s

Saturday

Partly sunny, warm, slight chance for a shower and thunderstorm, mid 80’s

Sunday

Mostly sunny, warm, slight chance for a shower and thunderstorm, mid 80’s

Discussion

An upper level ridge will build northward into the region promoting a northwesterly flow of air around here and this will help to boost temperatures well up into the 80's. The overall trending will be for warmer and drier conditions during the mid-week time frame. There will be just enough moisture around to allow for the possibility of isolated showers and thunderstorms in the southern Rockies during the next several days.

Video

httpv://youtu.be/Hq42CwJQCR0

7:00 AM | Cool pattern continues today and for much of the week

6-Day Forecast

Today

Patchy fog early then becoming mostly sunny, breezy, cool, highs near 70 degrees along coastal locations

Tonight

Mostly cloudy, breezy, mild, some fog possible late, lows in the low 60’s

Wednesday

Patchy fog early then becoming mostly sunny, cool, near 70

Wednesday Night

Mostly cloudy, mild, some fog late, low-to-mid 60’s

Thursday

Patchy fog early then becoming mostly sunny, cool, near 70

Friday

Patchy fog early then becoming mostly sunny, breezy, seasonably cool, low 70’s

Saturday

Patchy fog early then becoming mostly sunny, seasonably cool, low 70’s

Sunday

Patchy fog early then becoming mostly sunny, seasonably cool, low 70’s

Discussion

An upper level trough will continue to influence the weather around here into mid-week bringing slightly below normal temperatures to the region. There will be the continuation of late night and early morning clouds and fog along coastal sections for the next few days. High pressure will build into the region late in the week and seasonal temperatures should continue into the weekend along the coast.

Video

httpv://youtu.be/Hq42CwJQCR0

7:00 AM | Cool for much of the week along coastal regions

6-Day Forecast

Today

Patchy fog early then becoming mostly sunny, cool, highs near 70 degrees along coastal locations

Tonight

Mostly cloudy, breezy, mild, some fog possible late, lows in the low 60’s

Tuesday

Patchy fog early then becoming mostly sunny, seasonably cool, low 70’s

Tuesday Night

Mostly cloudy, mild, some fog late, low-to-mid 60’s

Wednesday

Patchy fog early then becoming mostly sunny, seasonably cool, low 70’s

Thursday

Patchy fog early then becoming mostly sunny, breezy, seasonably cool, low 70’s

Friday

Patchy fog early then becoming mostly sunny, seasonably cool, low 70’s

Saturday

Patchy fog early then becoming mostly sunny, seasonably cool, low 70’s

Discussion

An upper level trough will continue to influence the weather around here bringing slightly below normal temperatures to begin the new week. There will be the continuation of late night and early morning clouds and fog along coastal sections for much of the week and seasonal temperatures are likely for the second half of the week.

Video

httpv://youtu.be/nMDfwiuapQA

7:00 AM | Unsettled weather today with highs confined to near 80 degrees

6-Day Forecast

Today

Mainly cloudy, not as warm, chance for showers and thunderstorms, highs near 80 degrees

Tonight

Mostly cloudy, mild, slight chance for showers and thunderstorms, lows near 60 degrees

Tuesday

Partly sunny, warmer, slight chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms, mid 80’s

Tuesday Night

Mostly cloudy, mild, maybe a shower or thunderstorm, low 60’s

Wednesday

Mostly sunny, quite warm, still a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms, mid-to-upper 80’s

Thursday

Mostly sunny, very warm, upper 80’s

Friday

Mostly sunny, very warm, slight chance for a shower and thunderstorm, upper 80’s

Saturday

Mostly sunny, warm, slight chance for a shower and thunderstorm, mid 80’s

Discussion

The week will start unsettled with enough moisture around to cause fog this morning and scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Upper level ridging will intensify over the interior west by mid-week and the general trend here as a result for the second half of the week will be somewhat drier and warmer, but still a slight chance each day for a shower or thunderstorm.

Video

httpv://youtu.be/nMDfwiuapQA

2:40 PM | Update on Tropical Storm Dorian with near-term prospects for intensification (not great) and potential "subtle, but important" change in the track

Discussion

Tropical Storm Dorian has weakened somewhat over the past 24 hours now with sustained winds estimated at 50 mph whereas this time yesterday the winds were about 10 mph higher. Additionally, the central pressure of Dorian has come up a few millibars (mb) in the past 24 hours to 1006 after being at 999 mb early yesterday. The movement continues to be to the west-northwest (285 degrees) at a rapid clip of 20 mph.

Looking ahead to the next couple of days, there are two things that can be said about the intensification prospects and the storm track. First, it is quite likely that intensification will continue to be inhibited by some more mid-level dry air that is still out ahead of the tropical storm. Second, the current steering winds in the lower part of the atmosphere may make a subtle change to the track from west-northwest to more due west (ie 270 degrees) or even just south of due west (e.g., 260 degrees) and while this may sound insignificant, it could result in the system heading very close to, if not right over, the Caribbean Islands of Puerto Rico and/or Hispaniola. This possible type of track over the Caribbean Islands would likely result in the further weakening or even complete demise of Tropical Storm Dorian. For weak tropical systems, the best atmospheric level to focus on for predicting future storm movement is usually between 850 mb (roughly 5000 feet) and 700 mb (10,000 feet). [The stronger the storm, the more important are the higher atmospheric winds for steering considerations]. Stay tuned.

7:00 AM | Monsoonal moisture keeps the weather active for the next several days

6-Day Forecast

Today

Partly sunny, warm, breezy, chance for showers and thunderstorms, highs in the mid 80’s

Tonight

Mostly cloudy, breezy, cooler late, chance for evening showers and thunderstorms, lows in the upper 50’s

Saturday

Partly sunny, warm, slight chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms, mid 80’s

Saturday Night

Mostly cloudy, mild, maybe a shower or thunderstorm, low 60’s

Sunday

Partly sunny, warm, still the chance for showers and thunderstorms, low-to-mid 80’s

Monday

Partly sunny, warm, chance for a shower or thunderstorm, mid 80’s

Tuesday

Partly sunny, warm, chance for a shower or thunderstorm, mid 80’s

Wednesday

Partly sunny, warm, chance for a shower or thunderstorm, mid 80’s

Discussion

The weather for the next several days looks quite active with a daily threat of showers and thunderstorms as monsoonal moisture continues to affect much of the interior western states including Colorado.

Video

httpv://youtu.be/dqIj5b9W6bo