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Blog

Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information

Filtering by Category: Other

7:00 AM | Onshore flow keeps us cool for the next couple of days

Paul Dorian

6-Day Forecast

Today

Early morning low clouds and patchy fog then becoming partly sunny, cool, breezy, highs near 70 degrees along coastal locations

Tonight

Mostly cloudy, breezy, cool, patchy fog possible late, lows by morning in the low 60’s

Thursday

Early morning low clouds and patchy fog then becoming partly sunny, breezy, cool, near 70

Thursday Night

Mostly cloudy, cool, patchy fog possible late, lows by morning in the low 60’s

Friday

Becoming partly sunny after early clouds and fog, becoming warmer, mid 70’s

Saturday

Mostly sunny skies, warm, mid-to-upper 70’s

Sunday

Mostly sunny, warm, mid-to-upper 70’s

Monday

Mainly sunny, warm, mid-to-upper 70’s

Discussion

Onshore flow will keep us on the cool side of normal during the next couple of days with some late night and early morning low clouds and fog along coastal regions. By the weekend, the marine layer will diminish as high pressure becomes re-established. As a result, temperatures will modify this weekend likely rising to the mid and upper 70’s for highs along coastal locations.

Video

httpv://youtu.be/N6CtjU8oVcM

7:00 AM | *Unseasonably cool and very moist pattern to continue in the southern Rockies*

Paul Dorian

6-Day Forecast

Today

Mostly cloudy, cool, showers and possible thunderstorms, highs in the upper 60's

Tonight

Mostly cloudy, quite cool, more showers and possible thunderstorms, some of the rain will be heavy with potential flash flooding problems, lows by morning in the mid 50’s

Thursday

Mostly cloudy, still cool, showers and thunderstorms, some of the rain can be heavy with more flash flooding problems, near 70

Thursday Night

Mostly cloudy, cool, chance for more showers and thunderstorms, some of the rain can be heavy, mid-to-upper 50’s

Friday

Mostly cloudy, cool, chance for showers and thunderstorms, low 70’s

Saturday

Partly sunny, warmer, slight chance for showers and thunderstorms, mid-to-upper 70’s

Sunday

Partly sunny, cool, slight chance for showers and thunderstorms, low 70’s

Monday

Partly sunny, cool, slight chance for showers and thunderstorms, mid 70’s

Discussion

Big weather changes continue from last week to this week in the southern Rockies. A very moist and unseasonably cool period has set up for much of Colorado as a late season monsoonal plume of air hangs around the region. Showers and thunderstorms are in the forecast each day right into the weekend and some of the rain can be heavy at times tonight and Thursday and this could create flash flooding issues across the region. Temperatures will hold near the 70 degree mark during the next few days with a slight warm up possible over the weekend.

Video

httpv://youtu.be/N6CtjU8oVcM

1:00 PM | Historically quiet first half of the Atlantic tropical season may gets its first hurricane later today

Paul Dorian

tropicsInfrared satellite image of the tropics (courtesy of Wisconsin-SSEC)

Discussion

The climatological peak of the Atlantic tropical season happens to fall on today’s date, September 10th, and yet we have not had a single hurricane so far this year in the Atlantic Basin – but that could change as soon as later today. Currently, there are three areas of interest in the Atlantic Basin with two named tropical storms, Gabrielle in the western Atlantic and Humberto in the eastern Atlantic, and a third area in the western Caribbean that could become named during the next few days. Humberto is the strongest of the three systems and it could very well become a hurricane later today or tonight. Humberto’s latest measured sustained winds are at 65 mph with gusts to 75 mph – not far at all from the required 74+ mph needed for attaining official hurricane status.

Whether or not Humberto reaches hurricane status later today or tonight, the first half of this season has already made its mark as one of the least active periods on record. In fact, going back to the mid 1940’s when hurricanes hunters began to fly, there has been only one hurricane season in the Atlantic Basin that made it to the halfway point (September 10th) without a single hurricane and that was in the year 2002 when Gustav became a hurricane on September 11th. According to the National Hurricane Center, August 10th is the average date for the first Atlantic hurricane and typically there are three hurricanes by the mid-way point of the tropical season. An average season brings six hurricanes in the Atlantic of which two typically reach major hurricane status (i.e., category 3, 4 or 5). Going farther back, there were two years that had no reports of hurricanes in the Atlantic – 1907 and 1914. However, it is important to note that storms may have gone undetected back then without the aid of weather satellites.

The two tropical storms in the Atlantic, Gabrielle and Humberto, will stay over water for the next several days. Gabrielle will head northward affecting Bermuda later today and then the Atlantic Provinces of Canada this weekend. The western Caribbean disturbance may indeed develop into Tropical Storm Ingrid over the next few days as it heads out over the Gulf of Mexico - likely on its way towards South Texas and northeastern Mexico.

One word of caution, although the first half of this tropical season has been very quiet relatively speaking, the second half is usually more active than the first half. According to NOAA, there have been 645 hurricanes during the months of September, October and November as compare to 321 hurricanes during June, July and August.

humberto GOES visible satellite image of Tropical Storm Humberto in the eastern Atlantic (courtesy NOAA)

7:00 AM | A change to unseasonably cool and moist with a daily threat for showers and thunderstorms and some of the rain can be heavy at times

Paul Dorian

6-Day Forecast

Today

Mostly cloudy, cooler, chance for showers and thunderstorms, highs near 70 degrees

Tonight

Mostly cloudy, cool, chance for showers and thunderstorms, lows by morning in the mid 50’s

Wednesday

Mostly cloudy, still cool, chance for showers and thunderstorms, near 70

Wednesday Night

Mostly cloudy, cool, chance for showers and thunderstorms, mid-to-upper 50’s

Thursday

Mostly cloudy, cool, chance for showers and thunderstorms, near 70

Friday

Mostly cloudy, a bit milder, chance for showers and thunderstorms, mid 70’s

Saturday

Partly sunny, pleasant, slight chance for showers and thunderstorms, upper 70’s

Sunday

Partly sunny, cool, slight chance for showers and thunderstorms, mid 70’s

Discussion

A rather moist and unseasonably cool period has set up for the state as a late season monsoonal plume of air hangs around the southern Rockies through much of the week. The upper level ridge of high pressure that sat on top of the area last week has shifted eastward into the southeastern part of the country and this has opened the door for moisture to advance northward into the southern Rockies. As a result, showers and thunderstorms are in the forecast each day right through the week and into the weekend and high temperatures will generally be confined to the cool 70's.

Video

httpv://youtu.be/PIqeD4lU5YY

7:00 AM | A couple more days with cool weather along the coast and then a warm up during the latter part of the week

Paul Dorian

6-Day Forecast

Today

Early morning low clouds and patchy fog then becoming partly sunny, cool, highs near 70 degrees along coastal locations

Tonight

Mostly cloudy, cool, patchy fog possible late, lows by morning in the low 60’s

Wednesday

Early morning low clouds and patchy fog then becoming partly sunny, breezy, cool, near 70

Wednesday Night

Mostly cloudy, cool, patchy fog possible late, lows by morning in the low 60’s

Thursday

Early morning low clouds and patchy fog then becoming partly sunny, cool, low 70’s

Friday

Mostly sunny skies, warmer, mid 70’s

Saturday

Mostly sunny, warm, mid-to-upper 70’s

Sunday

Mainly sunny, warm, mid-to-upper 70’s

Discussion

A cooling trend will continue today with temperatures holding to near 70 degrees for highs along coastal sections. Late night and early morning low clouds and fog will persist along the coast into the mid-week time frame. Some warming is likely later this week as the marine flow weakens.

Video

httpv://youtu.be/PIqeD4lU5YY

10:45 AM | America's Deadliest Natural Disaster - the Galveston Hurricane of 1900

Paul Dorian

galvestonSurface weather analysis just before landfall on September 8, 1900

Discussion

At the end of the 19th century the city of Galveston, Texas was a booming town with a population of 37,000 residents. The city of Galveston lies on the east end of Galveston Island which runs about thirty miles in length and anywhere from one and a half to three miles in width. Its position on the harbor of Galveston Bay along the Gulf of Mexico made it the center of trade and the biggest city in Texas in the year 1900. A quarter of a century earlier, a nearby town was destroyed by a powerful hurricane and this object lesson was heeded by many Galveston residents and talks of a seawall to protect the city were quite prevalent; however, no seawall was built and sand dunes along the shore were actually cut down to fill low areas in the city, removing what little barrier there was to the Gulf of Mexico.

By late August of 1900 the local residents couldn’t help but to have an uneasy feeling as they knew the heart of the hurricane season had arrived and there was not nearly the weather observation network that we now have with today’s satellites and radar. In fact, ship reports were the only reliable tool for observing hurricanes at sea, but these were of somewhat limited warning value as they had no way of telegraphing weather observations ashore. The first formal observation for a developing new eastern Atlantic Ocean storm occurred on August 27th when a ship recorded an area of “unsettled weather” about 1000 miles east of the Windward Islands. This storm is believed to have begun as a “Cape Verde-type” hurricane – a tropical wave moving off the western coast of Africa. By September 1st, the US Weather Bureau observers were reporting on a “storm of moderate intensity” southeast of Cuba. The storm made landfall on southwest Cuba, but some of the reports that surfaced from Cuba were simply not believed as there was a distrust of Cuban weather forecasters. By September 5th, the system emerged into the Florida Straits as a tropical storm or weak hurricane. By the afternoon of the 7th, large swells from the southeast were observed on the Gulf of Mexico from Galveston Island and clouds at all altitudes began moving in from the northeast – both observations consistent with a hurricane approaching from the east. The Galveston Weather Bureau office raised its double square flags indicating a hurricane warning was in effect. By early afternoon on Saturday, September 8th, the Bureau office was recording hurricane-force winds.

In the early part of the night of September 8th, 1900 - a terrifying night that reshaped the Gulf of Mexico forever - the wind direction shifted to the east, and then to the southeast as the eye began to pass over the island just to the west of the city. The hurricane brought winds that evening estimated to be near 145 mph at landfall making it a Category 4 on today’s rating scale – stronger than Hurricane Katrina of 2005. It also brought a storm surge of over 15 feet that inundated most of Galveston Island and the city of Galveston. By the next morning, skies had cleared and a 20 mph breeze greeted the Galveston survivors, there were 3600 homes destroyed, and it was quite obvious that there was a tremendous loss of life. The storm continued on its trek producing lots of heavy rain and strong winds along the way, first tracking into Oklahoma, then the Great Lakes, and ultimately to near Halifax, Nova Scotia. As far away as New York City there were winds estimated as high as 65 mph - some four days after the devastation occurred in Galveston.

The Galveston Hurricane of 1900 is estimated to have killed as many as 12,000 individuals, but the number most often cited in official reports is 8000 – the true number will never be known. More people were killed in this single storm than the total of those killed in all the tropical cyclones that have struck the United States since. Indeed, the Galveston Hurricane of 1900 is the deadliest natural disaster to ever strike the US. By contrast, the second deadliest storm to strike the US, the 1928 Okeechobee hurricane, caused more than 2500 deaths and the deadliest storm of recent times, Hurricane Katrina of 2005, claimed the lives of approximately 1800 people.

Galveston never regained its former status as a major commercial center as development shifted north to Houston, which was enjoying the benefits of an oil boom. A 17-foot seawall was built beginning in 1902 and perhaps an even more dramatic effort to protect the city was its raising. Dredged sand was used to raise the city of Galveston by as much as 17 feet above its previous elevation. In 1915, a storm similar in strength and track to the 1900 hurricane struck Galveston. This storm brought a 12-foot storm surge which tested the new seawall. Although 53 people died on Galveston Island during the storm in 1915, this was a great reduction from the thousands who died in 1900 during the worst natural disaster America has ever faced.

storm_path

Path of the Galveston hurricane in the year 1900

7:00 AM | Showers and thunderstorms to start the new week as much more bearable temperatures move into the region

Paul Dorian

6-Day Forecast

Today

Showers and thunderstorms likely later today and some of the rain can be heavy at times, not as warm as recent days, highs near 80 degrees

Tonight

Mostly cloudy, cool, showers and thunderstorms still likely, lows by morning in the upper 50's

Tuesday

Mostly cloudy, even cooler, chance for showers and thunderstorms, low 70’s

Tuesday Night

Mostly cloudy, cool, chance for showers and thunderstorms, mid-to-upper 50’s

Wednesday

Mostly cloudy, cool, chance for showers and thunderstorms, low 70’s

Thursday

Mostly cloudy, still cool, chance for showers and thunderstorms, low 70’s

Friday

Partly sunny, pleasant, slight chance for showers and thunderstorms, mid 70's

Saturday

Mostly sunny, mild, upper 70's

Discussion

Large upper level ridge continued our hot weather pattern this weekend, but it will migrate to the east today and this will open the door for cooler weather to reach the southern Rockies from the Pacific Northwest as an upper level trough approaches. With the approach of the upper level trough, sub-tropical moisture will flow north into the region and showers and thunderstorms will be the result with the threat lasting from later today into the mid-week time frame and some of the rain that falls can be heavy at times. Temperatures will hold at much more bearable levels this week compared to last with highs generally in the 70's after reaching the 80 degree on Monday.

Video

httpv://youtu.be/mcmSJjqlfis

7:00 AM | Much cooler to begin this week compared to last

Paul Dorian

6-Day Forecast

Today

Mostly cloudy this morning with patchy fog then becoming partly sunny this afternoon, windy and cool, highs in the low 70’s along coastal locations

Tonight

Mostly cloudy, cool, patchy fog late, lows by morning in the low 60’s

Tuesday

Low clouds and patchy fog early then gradual clearing, breezy, cool, low 70’s

Tuesday Night

Mostly cloudy, cool, patchy fog late, low 60’s

Wednesday

Low clouds and patchy fog early then gradual clearing, breezy, cool, near 70

Thursday

Mostly sunny skies after early clouds and fog, warmer, mid 70’s

Friday

Mostly sunny, warm, mid-to-upper 70’s

Saturday

Mainly sunny, warm, upper 70’s

Discussion

A weak area of low pressure will produce cooler weather around here to start the new week. Along with the cooler conditions, the usual pattern of late night and early morning low clouds and patchy fog has returned to the region for the first half of the week. Some warming is possible later this week as high pressure becomes re-established.

Video

httpv://youtu.be/mcmSJjqlfis

7:00 AM | Hot through the weekend, but there is real relief in sight

Paul Dorian

6-Day Forecast

Today

Mostly sunny, very warm, slight chance for showers and thunderstorms, highs in the mid 90’s

Tonight

Partly cloudy, mild, slight chance for showers and thunderstorms, lows by morning in the mid-to-upper 60’s

Saturday

Mostly sunny, very warm, slight chance for showers and thunderstorms, low-to-mid 90’s

Saturday Night

Partly cloudy, mild, slight chance for showers and thunderstorms, low-to-mid 60’s

Sunday

Mostly sunny, very warm, slight chance for showers and thunderstorms, low 90’s

Monday

Mostly sunny, warm, chance for showers and thunderstorms, mid 80’s

Tuesday

Mostly sunny, not as warm, chance for showers and thunderstorms, near 80

Wednesday

Partly sunny, even cooler, chance for showers and thunderstorms, mid 70’s

Discussion

Large upper level ridge will remain in control of the region’s weather through the weekend. This pattern will generate continued very warm temperatures for the southern Rockies and enough sub-tropical moisture will be around to allow for the slight chance for showers and thunderstorms each day into the weekend. By early next week, the upper level high will shift eastward and this will open the door for a cool frontal passage that will cool things off around here by Tuesday and Wednesday of next week.

Video

httpv://youtu.be/NnAayuTKwDE

7:00 AM | Warm pattern continues right through the weekend

Paul Dorian

6-Day Forecast

Today

Mostly sunny, breezy, very warm, highs in the low 80’s along coastal locations, even warmer in the interior sections

Tonight

Partly cloudy, mild, breezy, lows by morning in the upper 60’s

Saturday

Mainly sunny, breezy, very warm, low 80’s

Saturday Night

Partly cloudy, mild, mid 60’s

Sunday

Mostly sunny, warm, near 80

Monday

Mostly sunny skies, not as warm, mid 70’s

Tuesday

Mostly sunny, pleasant, mid 70’s

Wednesday

Mainly sunny, pleasant, low-to-mid 70’s

Discussion

A broad area of high pressure continues to dominate the weather scene across the western US keeping temperatures around here at well above normal levels through the weekend. There is relief in sight, however, as cooler air should return to coastal sections early next week.

Video

httpv://youtu.be/NnAayuTKwDE