Historically weak solar cycle 24 continues to transition away from its solar maximum phase and towards the next solar minimum. There have already been 11 spotless days during 2017 and this follows 32 spotless days that occurred during the latter part of 2016. The blank look to the sun will increase in frequency over the next couple of years leading up to the next solar minimum - probably to be reached in late 2019 or 2020. By one measure, the current solar cycle is the third weakest since record keeping began in 1755 and it continues a weakening trend since solar cycle 21 peaked in 1980. One of the impacts of low solar activity is the increase of cosmic rays that can penetrate into the Earth’s upper atmosphere and this has some important consequences.
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There will be a lot going on in the sky on Friday night, February 10th, including a pass by what is commonly referred to as the green comet. In addition, there will be a penumbral eclipse and a full moon on the same night. All of this, of course, depends on clear skies and on that front, the prospects are iffy.
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GOES-16 (formerly known as GOES-R) was launched on November 19th, 2016 from Cape Canaveral, Florida and it has sent its first high-resolution images - and the first impression is quite spectacular. The images from GOES-16’s new Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) instrument shows the complete full disk of the Western Hemisphere including the continental US in all 16 channels (above). GOES-16 is the first spacecraft in the GOES-R series of four new NOAA geostationary satellites, capturing higher resolution images of weather patterns and atmospheric phenomena than any of NOAA’s GOES satellites to-date. The higher resolution will allow weather forecasters to pinpoint the location of severe weather with greater accuracy, ultimately saving lives.
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Sunspot counts have just reached their lowest level since 2011. The sun has been completely spotless on 23 days in 2016 and the blank look is increasing in frequency as it heads towards the next solar minimum. The next solar minimum is expected to be deep and extended - probably reached around 2019 or 2020. The current solar cycle is the 24th since 1755 when extensive recording of solar sunspot activity began and it is the weakest in more than a century with the fewest sunspots since cycle 14 peaked in February 1906. Low solar activity is known to have consequences on Earth’s weather and climate and it also is well correlated with an increase in cosmic rays that reach the upper part of the atmosphere.
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Weather forecasters have been waiting for this for a long, long time. The Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite-R (GOES-R) Series is the nation’s next generation of geostationary weather satellites. There are four satellites in the series (GOES-R, GOES-S, GOES-T and GOES-U) with six primary instruments on each that will help to improve weather forecasting around the world by providing advanced imaging with faster coverage and increased spatial resolution, real-time mapping of lightning activity, and improved monitoring of solar activity. NASA is aiming to launch the $1.2 billion GOES-R satellite from Cape Canaveral, Florida on Saturday, November 19th at 5:42PM EST via an Atlas V rocket. The original launch date was set for November 4th, but delays occurred due to the threat in Florida by Hurricane Matthew.
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The weather looks like it will cooperate and if you step outside on Sunday night, you may notice the moon is looking bigger and brighter than usual. In fact, it may very well look bigger than at any time in the last 68 years as the moon will be the closest it has been to Earth since January 1948. This month’s supermoon will be the biggest of the year and the biggest of the 21st century so far and it won’t look like this again until November 2034.
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If skies are clear and you step outside on Monday, November 14th, you may notice the moon is looking bigger and brighter than usual. In fact, it may very well look bigger than at any time in the last 68 years as the moon will be the closest it has been to Earth since January 1948. This month’s supermoon will be the biggest of the year and the biggest of the 21st century so far and it won’t look like this again until November 2034.
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The sun has been completely spotless on 21 days in 2016 and it is currently featuring just one lonely sunspot region. In fact, on June 4th of this year, the sun went completely spotless for the first time since 2011 and that quiet spell lasted for about four days. Sunspot regions then reappeared for the next few weeks on a sporadic basis, but that was followed by several more completely spotless days on the surface of the sun. The increasingly frequent blank sun is a sign that the next solar minimum is approaching and there will be an even greater number of spotless days over the next few years. At first, the blankness will stretch for just a few days at a time, then it’ll continue for weeks at a time, and finally it should last for months at a time when the sunspot cycle reaches its nadir. The next solar minimum phase is expected to take place around 2019 or 2020. The current solar cycle is the 24th since 1755 when extensive recording of solar sunspot activity began and is the weakest in more than a century with the fewest sunspots since cycle 14 peaked in February 1906. One other note, the weak solar cycle and the expectation for continued low solar activity this upcoming winter is an important factor in this year’s colder-than-normal Winter Outlook for the Mid-Atlantic region.
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The sun has been relatively quiet in recent years and the current solar cycle (24) is actually on pace to be the weakest in over one hundred years. Even weak solar cycles, however, can produce significant solar storms. In fact, it was this time of year back in 1859 when a super solar storm - now known as the Carrington Event - took place during another weak solar cycle (# 10). The event has been named for the British astronomer, Richard Carrington, as he observed from his own private observatory the largest solar flare during this event which caused a major coronal mass ejection (CME) to travel directly toward Earth. Fortunately, solar storms of this magnitude are quite rare as it would very likely have a much more damaging impact on today’s world than it did in the 19th century.
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The year was 1979. The Pittsburgh Pirates were on their way to winning the “we are family” baseball championship. The Philadelphia Phillies were only a year away from their first ever World Series championship. And this was the last time that there was a total solar eclipse visible from the contiguous US. Next year - on Monday, August 21, 2017 - not only will there be a total solar eclipse on US soil for the first time since 1979, but totality will extend from coast-to-coast across a good chunk of the country and it will be the first total eclipse visible only in the US since the country was founded in 1776. The next total solar eclipse on US soil will take place in April 2024.
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