1:15 PM | ****Significant snow late tonight and Thursday****

[12Z GEM model forecast map of total snowfall accumulations during this upcoming event; courtesy tropicaltidbits.com]

Discussion

Overview We are now in phase 2 of this 3-day weather event. Phase 1 featured lots of freezing rain and sleet late yesterday with numerous slippery spots during the evening commute in the Philly metro region. Today’s phase 2 brings us noticeably milder conditions with occasional rain and the touch of fog in some areas. Phase 3 will feature colder air moving in from the northwest and moisture moving in from the southwest. The cold and moisture will meet to bring the I-95 corridor significant snow from late tonight through much of the day on Thursday. Six inches of snow is a pretty safe bet as a minimum in most areas along the I-95 corridor with the chance for considerably more than that and all of this follows rain this evening and then a period of sleet later tonight.

Timetable, snowfall estimates Occasional rain will fall right into the evening hours in DC, Philly and NYC at the same time colder air is filtering in from the northwest to the southeast. The rain will change to a period of sleet during the middle of the night and this should then transition to snow late tonight from the northwest to the southeast. Specifically, the transition to snow should take place between 1 and 4 am in the NYC and Philly metro regions and 5-8am in the DC metro region. The snow should continue well into the afternoon in all areas and then taper off during the late afternoon or early evening hours. DC’s best snows will likely take place between mid-morning and mid-afternoon whereas Philly and NYC will likely see their best snows from the pre-dawn hours to mid-day. Temperatures will drop through the day on Thursday and bottom out in the single digits in some areas by early Friday morning.

Accumulation estimates are as follows:

6-10 in the DC metro region with the higher amounts in that range likely to the north and west of the District and the lower amounts in the District and nearby points to the south and east

6-10 in the Philly metro region with the higher amounts in that range likely in Philadelphia and nearby areas and the lower amounts well to the north and west of the city; central and south New Jersey also fall into the 6-10 inch range

4-8 inches in the NYC metro region with the higher amounts in that range from the metro region and points south and east and the lesser amounts to the north and west

Stay tuned...small shifts can have a big impact.

Morning Video Discussion

httpv://youtu.be/_Jx_2Rjhk24