1:30 PM | *Two tropical systems to monitor…one poses a big threat to Texas…the second could impact the Southeast US coastline*

12Z GFS forecast map for next Tuesday, August 29th; map courtesy tropicaltidbits.com, NOAA/EMC

Overview
From a climatological point-of-view, tropical activity tends to ramp up in the Atlantic Basin during the month of August as sea surface temperatures climb towards their highest levels of the year.  In fact, sea surface temperatures currently are generally warmer-than-normal in the all-important tropical breeding grounds of the western Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico. Indeed, there are now two tropical systems to closely monitor over the next several days with one over the Yucatan Peninsula region of Mexico and the other near the northwestern side of the Bahamas Island chain.  The system over the Yucatan Peninsula poses a big threat to Texas in coming days and the system near the east coast of Florida poses a threat to the Southeast US coastline from Florida to North Carolina.  

Texas threat
An area of showers and thunderstorms over the Yucatan Peninsula are associated with the remnants of Tropical Storm Harvey.  Once this tropical wave moves over the warmer-than-normal waters of the Bay of Campeche, intensification is likely to take place and this system could eventually reach hurricane status.  Signs point to a northwesterly track – towards the state of Texas – and heavy rainfall could ultimately be the result for southeastern sections.  

Current sea surface temperature anomalies over the western Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico; courtesy NOAA

Bahamas system
There is a broad trough of low pressure near the northwestern part of the Bahamas Island chain.  Any development here over the next few days should be somewhat limited, but sea surfaces temperatures are above-normal in the western Atlantic.  By the weekend, overall environmental conditions are likely to become more favorable for intensification as this system likely moves slowly northeastward – not far from the Southeast US coastline.  As a result, all coastal sections from Florida to North Carolina should closely monitor the movement of this tropical wave.

Mid-Atlantic impact?
In about a week’s time, the latest (12Z) GFS computer model forecast features one strong tropical system near the Texas/Louisiana border and another just off the coastline of North Carolina.  The TX/LA system could very well take a northeast turn later next week and head towards the Mid-Atlantic region.  High pressure across the Northeast US/Southeastern Canada always raises a red flag for potential tropical mischief this time of year and that kind of synoptic pattern will certainly be in place for several days later this week and into the early part of next week.

Stay tuned – the next six weeks or so could be quite an active time period.    

Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Vencore, Inc.
vencoreweather.com