2:45 Friday PM | ***Hurricane Irma continues on a collision course with Florida***
Paul Dorian
NOAA's hurricane model (HRWF) forecast map of simulated IR brightness for early Sunday morning; courtesy tropicaltidbits.com, NOAA/EMC
Friday PM update: Irma has strengthened slightly in the last few hours with max sustained winds now at 155 mph – just short of category 5 status which begins at 157 mph - and it is moving westerly at 14 mph with a central pressure of 925 millibars (27.32 inches). During the last few hours, Irma has tracked due west and this will likely result in some interaction with the island of Cuba over the next 6-12 hours which would likely generate some weakening due to increased shear. This potential weakening by the interaction with Cuba, however, would be only temporary.
12Z GFS forecast track of Irma out to Tuesday night in 6-hour increments; courtesy tropicaltidbits.com, NOAA/EMC
All indications suggest that once clear of Cuba on its north side, Irma will likely strengthen quite dramatically – perhaps even back to category 5 status – as it will track over very warm waters between Cuba and south Florida. Conditions will deteriorate tomorrow afternoon over the Keys and by early Sunday morning, there is likely going to be a monster hurricane knocking on the door step of the south-central-to-southwest coastline of Florida where landfall is likely as a 4 or 5 status "major" hurricane.
12Z Euro forecast map of Irma early Sunday morning; courtesy WSI, Inc.
Virtually the entire state of Florida could experience hurricane conditions later this weekend and into early Monday with the eventual north-to-northwest path likely to be over west-central Florida on Sunday into early Monday and most computer forecast models tend to agree with this unfolding dangerous scenario for the state.
Numerous 12Z computer forecast models take Irma's center to the central and southern Keys of Florida by early Sunday
By the time Irma reaches the central and northern parts of Florida, it is likely to have weakened some to perhaps category 2 status due to its interaction with land along with increased shear. All efforts to protect life and property should now be underway and completed by early tomorrow!
12Z Euro forecast map of Irma for Sunday evening; courtesy WSI, Inc.
One final note, there are currently three hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin (Irma, Katia and Jose). Two of these hurricanes are "major" (Irma and Jose) and all three have 90+ mph winds which has only happened 4 times in the Atlantic Ocean. The last time there were three hurricanes in the Atlantic at the same time was in 2010. The east coast may have to deal with Hurricane Jose in 7-10 days - we'll deal with that threat later. Equally as unusual to what is currently occurring in the Atlantic Ocean is the fact that there is absolutely no tropical activity at this normally very active time of year over the Pacific Ocean. By the way, the climatological peak of the Atlantic Basin tropical season is September 10th - and this year is certainly meeting that historical guideline.
12Z Euro forecast map of Irma on Monday morning; courtesy WSI, Inc.
Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Vencore, Inc.
vencoreweather.com
Morning extended video discussion on Irma: