3:15 PM | *Storm threat continues for next weekend*
Paul Dorian
12Z Euro surface forecast maps for Saturday AM October 27th (left) and Sunday AM October 28th (right) with an intensifying low pressure system near the east coast; courtesy tropicaltidbits.com, ECMWF
Overview
There continue to be signals for a strong storm to form near the east coast towards the latter part of the month and it will be something to monitor in coming days. Cold air outbreaks will continue to drop southeastward into the eastern US over the next several days and by the latter part of next week vigorous energy in the upper part of the atmosphere may result in a deep negatively-tilted trough aloft. The end result may be a strong storm right near the Mid-Atlantic coastline sometime next weekend.
Discussion
Teleconnection indices such as the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillation continue to suggest “high latitude blocking” may form near the end of the month at the same time vigorous energy drops southeastward across the Great Lakes. The details still need to be ironed out, but signs point to an intensifying coastal storm in the waning days of October which could result in copious amounts of rain in most locations and perhaps even snow in some higher elevation spots.
12Z Euro forecast map of 500 mb height anomalies for Sunday, October 28th with a deep upper-level trough in the eastern US. courtesy tropicaltidbits.com, ECMWF
The latest run of the Euro map features low pressure near the NC/VA border on Saturday morning and it intensifies noticeably by 24 hours later. Central pressure of this low pressure system drops from 996 mb to 986 mb in a 24-hour period as it moves from the southern Mid-Atlantic to interior New England according to this particular forecast model run. With deep and negatively-tilted upper-level trough in place over the Great Lakes and Midwest at this time, it is possible that this “front-end” system may not be the last in this stormy-looking pattern.
Stay tuned…it could get pretty interesting just before Halloween.
Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Perspecta, Inc.
perspectaweather.com