2:00 PM | *Tropics showing some life as the month of August approaches*
Paul Dorian
Multiple waves can now be seen on satellite imagery between the west coast of Africa and the Caribbean Sea as the tropical Atlantic shows some life; courtesy NOAA, University of Wisconsin
Overview
The month of August begins this week and that is climatologically the period when the Atlantic Basin tropical season begins to ramp up with activity before typically reaching a peak in the middle of September. As if right on schedule, there are now multiple waves to monitor in the tropical Atlantic and some reasons to believe the atmosphere is becoming somewhat more favorable for the potential of tropical storm formation over the next week or so.
Dry air that has pushed westward from Africa out over the Atlantic Ocean has retreated slightly to the north in recent days and this could open the door for more tropical activity; courtesy NOAA, University of Wisconsin/CIMSS
Discussion
The typical Atlantic Basin tropical season peaks with activity around September 10th after ramping up markedly during the month of August as sea surface temperatures continue their summer-long climb. The last few weeks have been relatively quiet in the tropical Atlantic largely as a result of copious amounts of dry air that has pushed westward in the trade winds from the Sahara Desert out into the open Atlantic Ocean. This dry air mass has been an inhibiting factor in the formation of “African-wave” type tropical activity, but there are some signs that it has been retreating northward some in the last few days. As a result, there is a little better environment in the tropical Atlantic than we’ve seen in some time and indeed, there are now multiple waves appearing on satellite between Africa’s west coast and the Caribbean Sea.
There is now quite a moist plume of air that extends from the west coast of Africa to the Gulf of Mexico and this could be favorable for more tropical activity; courtesy NOAA, University of Wisconsin/CIMSS
In fact, water vapor imagery (more specifically “total precipitable water” imagery) is currently showing quite a moist plume of air between the west coast of Africa and the Caribbean Sea – all signs that the dry air mass of recent weeks has at least temporarily abated. The initial wave over the eastern Caribbean Sea has little chance of intensifying, but the other two systems in the eastern Atlantic should be closely monitored in coming days. They will be “undercutting” the drier air mass to the north and also headed over slightly warmer waters as they trek across the tropical Atlantic. Stay tuned.
Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Perspecta, Inc.
perspectaweather.com
Video discussion: