8:00 AM (Sunday) | ***Heavy rain, strong winds, thunderstorms on the way to the I-95 corridor…temperatures tumble in the overnight hours with back end accumulating snow likely***
Paul Dorian
A strong upper-level jet streak will help enhance upward motion later today and tonight all along the I-95 corridor. Map courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com
Overview
A heavy rain event in the Mid-Atlantic’s I-95 corridor gets underway this morning and continues into Sunday night with increasingly strong winds that develop ahead of an incoming strong cold front. Flash flooding will become an increasing concern during this event with as much as 2-3 inches of rainfall possible in many areas by early Monday. In addition, with an eventual shifting of the main surface low pressure system to the northern Mid-Atlantic coastline, there is a threat for back-end accumulating snow in the late overnight/early Monday morning hours all the way into and especially to the N/W of the I-95 corridor. Significant snow is likely to fall during this storm across interior, higher elevation locations of the northeastern states from northeastern PA to northern New England.
A strong low-level jet streak can help to contribute to wind gusts of 50 mph along coastal sections during this late weekend weather event. Map courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com
Details
There are multiple players on the field that will play a role in a dynamic storm system that will have a big impact in the Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast US. Strong jet streaks at multiple levels of the atmosphere will provide the catalyst for intensification of low pressure on Sunday along a slow-moving frontal boundary zone. The associated upper-level low pressure system will push through the southeastern states later today and reach the Mid-Atlantic region by early Monday. At the surface, a strong N-S oriented cold front will slide slowly eastward on Sunday from the Appalachian Mountains at mid-day to the east coast by late tonight.
Heavy rainfall is on tap for the I-95 corridor region during this late weekend event with as much as 2-3 inches of total precipitation amounts by early Monday. Map courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com
The combination of the slow-moving strong surface cold front and vigorous support in the upper part of the atmosphere will result in moderate-to-heavy rainfall at times from this morning into the late evening hours all along the I-95 corridor. Embedded strong thunderstorms may enhance rainfall amounts locally and potentially produce strong wind gusts. Flash flooding will become an increasing concern during this heavy rain event in the I-95 corridor with as much as 2-3 inches of rainfall possible by ending time early on Monday. Temperatures ahead of the strong cold front will surge to 60 degrees in much of the eastern Mid-Atlantic region on Sunday with the milder air riding northward on increasingly strong S-SE winds. The winds can gust up to 40 mph or so across interior sections of the Mid-Atlantic on Sunday and up to 50 mph or so along coastal sections.
A strong cold front will advance slowly eastward today reaching the east coast in the overnight hours. Temperatures will tumble following the frontal passage and there can be a transition to snow all the way into and especially to the N/W of the I-95 corridor from the late overnight hours into early Monday. Map courtesy NOAA
Once the cold front slides through the Mid-Atlantic later Sunday night, colder air will wrap into the storm system from the northwest and back-end accumulating snow is possible all the way into and especially to the N/W of the I-95 corridor. The transition to snow in the I-95 corridor would be in the late overnight hours into early Monday morning. The ground will start off quite warm when the snow begins in the I-95 corridor so initially it will have trouble sticking in the I-95 corridor. However, snow accumulations of a coating to as much as a couple inches will be possible in and around DC and Philly and just to the northwest of NYC by the time the precipitation ends on Monday morning. Significant accumulating snow of 6+ can fall during this event across interior higher elevation locations from northeastern PA and interior NY to northern Vermont and upstate Maine. A moderately cold air mass will follow this dynamic storm system into the Mid-Atlantic region on Monday and it’ll stick around through much of the remainder of the week.
Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Arcfield
arcfieldweather.com