Use the form on the right to contact us.
You can edit the text in this area, and change where the contact form on the right submits to, by entering edit mode using the modes on the bottom right.
123 Street Avenue, City Town, 99999
(123) 555-6789
email@address.com
You can set your address, phone number, email and site description in the settings tab.
Link to read me page with more information.
Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information
Filtering by Category: Climate Info
The usually brownish-green North Atlantic has turned blue-green in recent weeks due to a combination of atmospheric conditions and it now seemingly resembles the Caribbean Sea. The uncharacteristically blue-green hue of the North Atlantic is the result of phytoplankton and has been around for at least ten days or so – but is likely to not last much longer.
Read MoreThe forecast for the high temperature in Death Valley, California for the next couple of days is a rather pedestrian 108 degrees or so. One hundred and three years ago – on July 10th, 1913 - the weather observer at Greenland Ranch in Death Valley recorded a high temperature of 134 degrees. This is the highest air temperature ever reliably recorded on Earth, but it didn’t get that distinction until just recently. The Greenland Ranch weather station was located across the street from what is known today as the Furnace Creek Ranch and it is about 180 feet below sea level.
Read MoreThe Atlantic Basin hurricane season is now well underway and there has been somewhat of an active start to the season with one hurricane (Alex) already in the books which formed way back in January and three recent tropical storms (Bonnie, Colin and Danielle). While there is not a significant statistical correlation between early season activity and the tropical season as a whole, there are reasons to believe that this year may end up being more active than recent years which have been relatively quiet for the US mainland. In fact, the Atlantic Basin is in the midst of an unprecedented streak with no major (i.e., categories 3, 4 and 5) hurricane strikes in the US since 2005. In fact, this is the longest streak of that nature since record-keeping began in 1851 and there are some meteorological factors involved. The closest major hurricane drought to that of the present was the smaller 8-year record of 1861-1868. Just as a point of comparison, in 1954 the US was hit by 3 major hurricanes in less than 10 weeks (plot below).
Read MoreFor the second time this month, the sun has gone completely blank. On June 4th, the sun went completely spotless for the first time since 2011 and that quiet spell lasted for about 4 days. Sunspot regions then reappeared for the next few weeks on a sporadic basis, but are once again completely missing from the surface of the sun. The blank sun is a sign that the next solar minimum is approaching and there will be an increasing number of spotless days over the next few years. At first, the blankness will stretch for just a few days at a time, then it’ll continue for weeks at a time, and finally it should last for months at a time when the sunspot cycle reaches its nadir. The next solar minimum phase is expected to take place around 2019 or 2020. The current solar cycle is the 24th since 1755 when extensive recording of solar sunspot activity began and is the weakest in more than a century with the fewest sunspots since cycle 14 peaked in February 1906.
Read MoreThe collapse of El Nino in the tropical Pacific Ocean has continued throughout the spring season and it should evolve into La Nina conditions by the fall of this year. El Nino is a naturally occurring oceanic cycle that produces warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the equatorial Pacific Ocean whereas La Nina is associated with colder-than-normal SSTs. This now fading El Nino event reached its peak intensity level during December 2015 and rivaled in intensity some of the strongest El Nino’s of the past 50 years including those of 1997-1998 and 1982-1983. El Nino had widespread consequences on weather and climate around the world including a spike in global temperatures and – if history is any guide – its demise and the eventual flip to La Nina will have important consequences as well. In fact, global temperatures have already been dropping noticeably during the past couple of months - typical of post El Nino time periods – and should continue to do so for the foreseeable future as La Nina becomes well established.
Read MoreThe sun has gone completely blank. This may not last too long, but at least for now, there are no visible sunspots – a sure sign of an approaching solar minimum - and this is the first spotless day on the sun since 2014. In fact, there has been only one spotless day on the sun since 2011 – until today that is. The current solar cycle is the 24th since 1755 when extensive recording of solar sunspot activity began. Solar cycle number 24 is the weakest solar cycle in more than a century with the fewest sunspots since cycle 14 peaked in February 1906.
Read MoreThe “official” Atlantic Basin hurricane season has just begun and it may be more active than recent years and also compared to normal (tropical outlook), but so far the tornado season in the US has been below-normal which continues a trend over the past several years. Through the end of May, the preliminary number of tornadoes reported across the US is 605 and this compares to the 10-year normal of 788. This below-normal reading at the end of May comes despite a quick start to above-normal levels early in the year following a somewhat unusual large outbreak of tornadoes during the month of February. Fortunately, it has not been since 2011 in which the US actually had an above-normal number of tornadoes at this time of year.
Read MoreThe “official” Atlantic Basin hurricane season begins on June 1st and it is likely to feature more activity than normal and more activity than seen in recent years which have been relatively quiet. The major factors involved with the "2016 Tropical and Mid-Atlantic Summertime Outlook" include a quickly weakening El Nino in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, the likelihood for the onset of La Nina by later in the summer, and the current sea surface temperature pattern across the tropical Atlantic Ocean. In a typical Atlantic Basin tropical season, there are about 12 named storms with 6 or 7 reaching hurricane status and only 2 or 3 actually reaching "major" status (i.e., category 3, 4 or 5). Amazingly, the US has not been struck by a major hurricane since 2005 – the longest such streak by far since 1900 – and this season will most likely present at least a few challenges for that streak to continue.
Read MoreIn addition to solar cycles, temperature cycles in the planet’s oceans play critical roles in our ever changing climate and also on the extent of global sea ice. Oceanic temperature cycles are often quite long-lasting and a warm or cold phase can persist for two or three decades at a time. In general, the Atlantic Ocean experienced a cold phase from the early 1960’s to the mid 1990’s at which time it flipped to a warm phase and that has continued for the most part ever since. The current warm phase; however, is now showing early signs of a possible long-term shift back to colder-than-normal sea surface temperatures (SST) and this could have serious implications on US climate and sea ice areal extent in the Northern Hemisphere.
Read MoreIn a typical Atlantic Basin tropical season, there are about 12 named storms with 6 or 7 reaching hurricane status and only 2 or 3 actually reaching "major" status (i.e., category 3, 4 or 5). Based on six analog years chosen in large part for their similar "El Nino-to-La Nina" transitions, this year may feature slightly above normal tropical activity in the Atlantic Basin with around 14 named storms, 7 reaching hurricane level, and 3 attaining “major” status. While this would be a slightly above normal season - and noticeably more active than recent relatively quiet years - it is not likely to turn out to be a mega-year given among other reasons the numerous cold pockets of water across the Atlantic Ocean.
Based on the chosen six analog years, odds favor a hot summer in the Mid-Atlantic region with temperatures averaging 1-2 degrees (F) above normal and also a drier-than-normal summer with rainfall totals some 2-4 inches below the June/July/August standards. The good news is that soil moisture content is in relatively decent shape in this area - despite the recent dry spell - thanks to some early spring rains (and snow) and this should help reduce the chances for an excessive drought this summer despite the outlook for hot and dry conditions.
Read More