Bali is an Indonesian island known for its volcanic mountains, beaches and rice paddies. For the last month or so, Bali’s largest volcano Mount Agung has been rocked by hundreds of earthquakes and in recent days that number has spiked to nearly 1,000 per day. In addition, white steam is now billowing out of the Bali volcano and this in combination with the increasing number of earthquakes suggests that a major eruption could be imminent. As a precaution, some 180,000 people have been evacuated from the surrounding area during the past few weeks. If there is a major eruption in this part of the world, it could have a significant impact on global temperatures for a few years.
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Beneath Yellowstone National Park lies a supervolcano that can become primed for an eruption in decades rather than the millennia that was previously thought. The odds of an eruption are very small, but scientists have discovered that conditions that lead to super eruptions can emerge within the typical life span of a human. A full-blown eruption of the Yellowstone supervolcano would have up to 2000 times the power of the Mount St. Helens eruption of 1980 and would likely cover the US in a thick layer of ash and send the Earth into a volcanic winter.
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Earlier this year, there were signs that a weak El Nino in the tropical Pacific Ocean could continue through the fall and even into the upcoming winter season, but there is now substantial agreement amongst numerous computer forecast models that La Nina conditions are likely to become established over the next couple of months and current observations back this notion. La Nina is a naturally occurring oceanic cycle that produces colder-than-normal sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the equatorial Pacific Ocean whereas El Nino is associated with warmer-than-normal SSTs. The formation of La Nina in the tropical Pacific Ocean will likely have important ramifications around the world including significant impacts on the upcoming winter season, next summer’s tropical season, and global temperatures.
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Arctic sea ice extent has likely just reached its low point of the melting season and is above levels from 2012 and 2007 at this same time of year. Arctic sea ice generally shrinks every year during the spring and summer seasons until it reaches its minimum yearly extent around this time of year. Sea ice then typically regrows during the frigid fall and winter seasons when the sun is below the horizon in the Arctic. The apparent end to this year’s melting season in the Arctic is right around the mid-point of September.
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The high temperature forecast in Death Valley, California for the next couple of days is an impressive 120°F or so, but this is rather pedestrian compared to the all-time record high that occurred on this date one hundred and four years ago. On July 10th, 1913, the weather observer at Greenland Ranch in Death Valley recorded a high temperature of 134°F. One hundred and four years later, this is still the highest air temperature ever reliably recorded on Earth. In addition to this all-time and worldwide high temperature record, the year of 1913 produced numerous other extreme weather events.
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While we were celebrating our Independence Day on July 4th, Summit Station in Greenland may have experienced the coldest July temperature ever recorded in the Northern Hemisphere at -33°C (-27.4°F). Much of Greenland has been colder-than-normal for the year so far and has had record or near record levels of accumulated snow and ice since the fall of last year. The first week of this month was especially brutal in Greenland resulting in the record low July temperature and it also contributed to an uptick in snow and ice extent - despite the fact that it is now well into their summer season.
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The sun is currently featuring one lonely visible sunspot region and this relatively blank look is becoming more and more common as solar cycle 24 heads towards the next solar minimum. In fact, there have been 42 days in 2017 with a completely blank sun – already ten more days than all of last year – and this makes up almost one-quarter of the time for this year. Solar cycle 24 has turned out to be historically weak with the lowest number of sunspots since cycle 14 peaked more than a century ago in 1906. In fact, by one measure, the current solar cycle is the third weakest since record keeping began in 1755 and it continues a weakening trend since solar cycle 21 peaked in 1980. One of the natural impacts of decreasing solar activity is the increase of cosmic rays that can penetrate into the Earth’s upper atmosphere and this can have many important consequences.
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A weak El Nino instead of a moderate-to-strong one would allow for a more active tropical season in the Atlantic Basin. In addition, should a weak El Nino persist into the upcoming winter season and be concentrated in the central tropical Pacific Ocean (Modoki), it could increase the chances for a snowy winter in the eastern US. Earlier this year, it looked as though a moderate-to-strong El Nino was a sure bet as sea surface temperatures shot up to well above normal levels just off the west coast of South America. In addition, numerous computer forecast models at that time supported the idea of a moderate-to-strong El Nino in the tropical Pacific for the summer and fall seasons. Recent actual observations, however, indicate El Nino is sputtering and many computer forecast models have now backed away from a moderate-to-strong El Nino and this potential change could indeed have some important implications.
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This could very well be just a temporary blip, but Arctic sea ice extent has actually crossed into territory in recent days that it hasn’t seen too often in many months. Specifically, Arctic sea ice extent as measured by the European global operational satellite agency (EUMETSAT) has moved into the relatively “normal” range of +/- 2 standard deviations – albeit on the very low side of “normal” for this particular time of year. Arctic temperatures have dropped to below-normal levels in recent weeks after running consistently above-normal for the first four months of the year and this has slowed down the normal springtime melting in that region.
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Earlier this year, it looked as though El Nino was beginning to form in the tropical Pacific Ocean with warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures becoming more evident off the west coast of South America. In addition, numerous computer forecast models were predicting moderate-to-strong El Nino conditions for the summer and fall seasons in the equatorial region of the Pacific Ocean. While this can still happen, recent actual observations have raised some questions about those predictions. One of the reasons it is necessary to closely follow the changes in the tropical Pacific Ocean is the fact that it can have an important consequence on the rapidly approaching Atlantic Basin tropical season. In an El Nino year, for example, there is a tendency for less tropical activity in the Atlantic Basin as El Nino-induced vertical wind shear is typically higher-than-normal and this tends to inhibit the growth of tropical storms.
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