It appears somewhat likely that the current weak El Nino in the equatorial part of the central Pacific Ocean will transition into La Nina conditions later this summer. La Nina is a naturally occurring oceanic cycle that produces colder-than-normal sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropical Pacific Ocean whereas El Nino is associated with warmer-than-normal water. If indeed La Nina forms later this year, it could have ramifications on the upcoming Atlantic Basin tropical season, prospects for drought in California, and potentially on global temperatures in the lower atmosphere.
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Recent winters have been generally warmer-than-normal in Alaska, but the cold this season has been harsh and unrelenting. The forecast for the next couple of weeks doesn’t look all that promising either as colder-than-normal conditions should persist as we transition from January to February. In general, when Alaska is experiencing colder-than-normal weather for an extended period of time in the winter season, it is usually warmer-than-normal in the eastern US. Indeed, this adage has been observed this month as warmer-than-normal conditions have persisted in the eastern US while Alaska has shivered.
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Over the long term, the sun is the main driver of weather and climate on Earth and it is also connected to such phenomenon as the aurora borealis also known as the northern lights, upper atmospheric high-latitude blocking, and the influx of cosmic rays into Earth’s atmosphere. The aurora borealis tends to occur more often during times of increased solar activity though they can actually take place at any time of a solar cycle. On the other hand, there is a tendency for more frequent high-latitude blocking events in the atmosphere during periods of low solar activity and these episodes can play an important role in winter weather conditions across the central and eastern US. The influx of cosmic rays into the Earth’s atmosphere from outer space tends to increase dramatically during solar minimums which we are experiencing at the current time. Interestingly, there is evidence that solar activity plays a role in volcanic activity on our planet. In fact, in times of low solar activity such as during the current solar minimum, volcanic activity tends to rise. Indeed, there has been a significant amount of volcanic activity in recent weeks including the latest eruption in the Philippines.
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Normally, the stratosphere has no clouds at all as it is an extremely dry layer in Earth’s atmosphere. Every once in awhile, however, it gets so cold up there that the sparse water molecules can actually assemble themselves into icy clouds. Conditions for the past couple of days have been conducive to the formation of such clouds as it is extremely cold in the stratosphere over the Arctic Circle with temperatures as low as -85 degrees (C). As a result, there has been an outbreak of these polar stratospheric clouds and some reports suggest they are more prevalent than ever filling up as much as 25% of the sky.
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It wasn’t that long ago that there was a fear in Montana’s Glacier National Park (GNP) that the Jackson Glacier was going to disappear in coming years, but that sentiment has changed dramatically recently largely due to extensive cold and snow in the latest winters. In fact, the Jackson Glacier—easily seen from the Going-To-The-Sun Highway—may have grown as much as 25% or more over the past decade. As recently as September 2018, there were posted signs within the park warning that GNP’s glaciers were expected to disappear completely by 2020, but these have been removed due to the recent change in sentiment on this warning. If this weekend’s snowstorm is any indication, the recent cold and snowy weather pattern across Montana in recent winters may certainly be an on-going phenomenon.
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Low pressure that pushed southward yesterday from Georgia to the northeastern Gulf of Mexico is now showing clear signs of strengthening and it is very likely to reach named (Barry) tropical storm status over the next day or two. While only slow intensification is expected for the next day or two, there are reasons to believe that the combination of favorable atmospheric and oceanic conditions will allow for more rapid strengthening beyond 48 hours and this could result in a category 1 or 2 hurricane this weekend over the Gulf of Mexico. A key player in the eventual path of soon-to-be named “Barry” will be a strong ridge of high pressure to the northwest that may steer this system towards a landfall Louisiana or Texas by the latter part of the weekend. In addition, with the building ridge to the northwest, there is the chance that this system becomes a slow mover and this will only enhance chances for some serious rainfall in the Gulf of Mexico region from eastern Texas to the western Florida Panhandle. Elsewhere, the centrally-based El Nino in the Pacific Ocean is now showing signs of weakening and this could result in a more active Atlantic Basin tropical season during the next few months.
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One of the most widespread and destructive heat waves ever recorded in the US took place in the summer of 1936 which fell right in the middle of the hottest and driest decade ever for the nation. The decade of the 1930’s is renowned for the “Great Depression” and the “Dust Bowl”, both of which caused calamitous human suffering in this country. Not only were huge numbers of crops destroyed by the heat and lack of moisture in the “Dust Bowl” era, but thousands of lives were lost as a result of the heat, drought and economic hardship. Many of the all-time high temperature records that were set in the decade of the 1930’s still stand today. The heat wave experienced in 1936 began in late June, reached a peak in July, and didn’t really come to an end until September. This extreme heat wave was particularly deadly; especially, in high population areas where air conditioning was still in the early stages of development.
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Noctilucent clouds are the highest clouds on Earth and are quite rarely seen in the US as they are primarily visible at high latitudes above 55°N. For the past several weeks, however, they have been seen much more often than normal around the world and at unusually low latitudes. Two possible explanations for the on-going extraordinary viewing season revolve around the current (low) activity on the sun and the high water vapor levels way up in the atmosphere. Specifically, noctilucent clouds tend to be more prevalent during solar minimums and we are now entering what may be the deepest solar minimum in more than a century. In addition, unusually high levels of water vapor have been detected in the mesosphere creating favorable conditions for the formation of noctilucent clouds.
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The sun continues to be very quiet and it has been without sunspots this year 62% of the time as we approach what is likely to be one of the deepest solar minimums in a long, long time. In fact, all indications are that the upcoming solar minimum may be even quieter than the last one which was the deepest in nearly a century. In addition, there are now forecasts that the next solar cycle, #25, will be the weakest in more than 200 years. The current solar cycle, #24, has been the weakest with the fewest sunspots since solar cycle 14 peaked in February 1906. Solar cycle 24 continues a recent trend of weakening solar cycles which began with solar cycle 21 that peaked around 1980 and if the latest forecasts are correct, that trend will continue for at least another decade or so.
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Noctilucent clouds are the highest clouds on Earth and are quite rarely seen in the US as they are primarily visible at high latitudes above +55°N. This weekend, however, noctilucent clouds were seen across many spots in the US including as far south as Freedom, Oklahoma (+36°N) which according to spaceweather.com, may be the lowest latitude sighting ever. Research studies have shown that these clouds tend to become more prevalent during solar minimums and we are now entering into what is likely to be a deep and perhaps historic solar minimum.
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