2:45 PM | ***Severe weather threat for the entire region between DC, Philly and New York City between 3 and 10pm***

[Latest NEXRAD radar; courtesy AOS - Wisconsin]

Discussion

Clearing skies this morning and the subsequent quick uptick in low-level temperatures has increased instability in the atmosphere dramatically across the Mid-Atlantic region and the result is an impressive area of showers and thunderstorms across much of central Pennsylvania and northwestern Maryland/Virginia. These showers and thunderstorms are now racing towards the I-95 corridor region between DC, Philly and New York City and severe weather is a definite threat from mid-afternoon through the late evening hours (3pm-10pm). Any of these storms can produce torrential rainfall, frequent cloud-to-ground lightning, large hail, damaging wind gusts and even isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out. The threat has prompted the National Weather Service to issue severe thunderstorm watches and warnings for the entire Mid-Atlantic region until late this evening. One final note - there have been reports of golf ball sized hail with some of these storms; move your car into the garage if time permits.

7:00 AM | The threat continues today for more showers and thunderstorms as temperatures climb into the 80's

6-Day Forecast

Today

More clouds than sun, quite warm, a few more showers and thunderstorms are likely, highs in the low-to-mid 80’s

Tonight

Partly cloudy, still the chance for a shower or thunderstorm, mild, becoming breezy, lows in the mid 50’s

Friday

Cooler with partly sunny skies, slight chance for a shower or thunderstorm, low-to-mid 70’s

Friday Night

Partly cloudy, cool, low-to-mid 50’s

Saturday

Mainly sunny, still a bit on the cool side, low-to-mid 70’s

Sunday

Mostly sunny, pleasant, upper 70’s

Monday

Mostly sunny early, some clouds late, warmer, low-to-mid 80’s

Tuesday

Partly sunny, warm, chance for showers and thunderstorms, mid-to-upper 80’s

Discussion

A warm front is working its way through the region this morning and a cool front will approach the region this afternoon. As a result, there will continue to be some instability in the atmosphere today throughout the Mid-Atlantic region and scattered showers and thunderstorms will likely reform this afternoon and early evening. Any shower that develops can bring some brief heavy rainfall to the area and there is a chance that some storms that form will be on the strong side with gusty winds and possible hail. The cool front will pass through and usher in slightly cooler air for Friday and Saturday and a shower or thunderstorm cannot be completely ruled out on either day. High pressure will arrive along the east coast by Sunday and then this high will shift off the coast into a “Bermuda High” type of position early next week and the result should be a couple of 80+ degrees days in the Mid-Atlantic region on Monday and Tuesday.

Video

httpv://youtu.be/Ej4NlrpW_Uw

7:00 AM | Showers and thunderstorms return to the region and some of the rain can be heavy at times; weekend looking pretty decent

6-Day Forecast

Today

Mainly cloudy, warmer and more humid, occasional showers and thunderstorms, some of the rain can be heavy at times, highs near 80 degrees

Tonight

Showers and thunderstorms likely, some of the rain can be heavy at times, mild, lows in the lower 60’s

Thursday

Patchy fog possible early then becoming partly sunny, warm, chance for a few more showers and thunderstorms, low 80’s

Thursday Night

Partly cloudy, mild, mid 50’s

Friday

Cooler with mainly sunny skies, low-to-mid 70’s

Saturday

Mostly sunny, comfortable, low-to-mid 70’s

Sunday

Mostly sunny, pleasant, mid-to-upper 70’s

Monday

Mostly sunny early, clouds late, warmer, near 80; showers possible at night

Discussion

A warm front will lift through the region today pushed to the northeast by a low pressure system over the Great Lakes. This same low pressure area will swing a cool front through the region on Thursday. The result of this frontal activity will be an unstable period containing showers and thunderstorms. Some of the rain will be heavy at times later today and tonight and some of the thunderstorms that form will be on the strong side with downpours and gusty winds. The unstable conditions will continue on Thursday with a shower or thunderstorm possible although they won't be as numerous as today. By the weekend, calmer conditions will take over and it should turn out to be a decent holiday weekend weather-wise with pleasant temperatures and mainly rain-free conditions.

Video

httpv://youtu.be/iUPZpFbe_qk

7:00 AM | The threat for showers and thunderstorms from late tonight through tomorrow night

6-Day Forecast

Today

More clouds than sun, warmer, highs in the upper 70’s

Tonight

Mostly cloudy, mild, chance for showers and thunderstorms late, lows in the upper 50’s

Wednesday

Mostly cloudy, warm, showers and thunderstorms likely, upper 70’s

Wednesday Night

Mostly cloudy, mild, still the chance for a few showers and thunderstorms, low 60’s

Thursday

Partly sunny, warm, still the chance for a couple of showers and thunderstorms, near 80

Friday

Mostly sunny, not as warm, maybe a shower or thunderstorm, low 70’s

Saturday

Mainly sunny, pleasant, low-to-mid 70’s

Sunday

Mostly sunny, warmer, upper 70’s

Discussion

High pressure will move south of the region today and a warm front will approach the area on Wednesday from the southwest. The warm front will enhance the chances around here for showers and thunderstorms from late tonight through tomorrow night and some of the storms that form can be on the strong side. A cool front will cross the region on Thursday and high pressure will return as we close out the work week and begin the weekend, but lingering low pressure to the east will still threaten us with a shower or thunderstorm at the end of the week.

Video

httpv://youtu.be/t4CGnnEq0So

7:00 AM | A good start to the week

6-Day Forecast

Today

Mainly sunny and pleasant, highs near 70 degrees

Tonight

Mainly clear, chilly, lows near 50 degrees

Tuesday

Mostly sunny, comfortable, mid-to-upper 70’s

Tuesday Night

Mostly cloudy, mild, a few showers and thunderstorms possible late, mid-to-upper 50’s

Wednesday

Mainly cloudy, warm, chance for showers and thunderstorms, upper 70’s

Thursday

Partly sunny, warm, still the chance for a shower or thunderstorm, upper 70’s

Friday

Partly sunny, mild, cannot rule out a couple of showers, low 70’s

Saturday

Partly sunny, pleasant, low 70’s

Discussion

The week will get off to a good start as high pressure will remain in control of the weather in the Mid-Atlantic region for another couple of days. A warm front will approach the region on Wednesday bringing with it the chance for showers and thunderstorms. It’ll stay mild behind the front on Thursday and the chance for a shower or thunderstorm will linger.

Video

httpv://youtu.be/iMKgEixlAlM

7:00 AM | Summer-like preview continues through early next week; warm spell likely peaks on Monday with a possible flirtation with the 90 degree mark; showers/storms on Saturday; turns noticeably cooler again later next week

6-Day Forecast

Today

Early morning patchy fog and drizzle; otherwise, mostly cloudy skies today and very warm, slight chance for a shower or thunderstorm, highs in the low-to-mid 80’s

Tonight

Cloudy, quite mild, chance for showers and thunderstorms, lows in the lower 60’s

Saturday

Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely, warm, upper 70’s

Saturday Night

Mostly cloudy, mild, a few showers and thunderstorms possible early, near 60

Sunday

Becoming mostly sunny, warm, low 80’s

Monday

Mainly sunny, summer-like warmth, mid-to-upper 80’s

Tuesday

Partly sunny, summer-like warm, showers and thunderstorms possible, mid-to-upper 80’s

Wednesday

Mainly cloudy, not quite as warm, showers and thunderstorms possible, near 80

Discussion

Warm air surged into the DC metro region on Thursday afternoon and it will stick around right through early next week with perhaps the warmest conditions occurring on Monday in the Mid-Atlantic region. In fact, temperatures on Monday afternoon could flirt with the 90 degree mark in the DC metro region, the middle 80’s in Philly, and near 80 degrees in NYC. A cold front will reach the east coast by the middle of next week and it’ll turn noticeably cooler by the end of the week.

As far as rainfall is concerned, while there is a chance for a shower or thunderstorm this afternoon and tonight, they are much more likely on Saturday as a frontal system approaches the region. In fact, this front will likely produce widespread showers and thunderstorms later tomorrow up and down the I-95 corridor from DC-to-Philly-to-NYC. Saturday’s shower and thunderstorm activity should clear out in time to allow for a dry, sunny and warm Mother’s Day on Sunday.

11:40 AM | "A Taste of Summer"

[3-hour temperature change map between 8 and 11am shows surge of warmth near DC; courtesy NOAA]

Discussion

Warm air is surging into the DC metro region today (11am temperature in Culpepper, VA is 81 degrees) and it will arrive in Philly on Friday and then in New York City on Saturday. Once here, the warm air mass will stick around right through the early part of next week and the warm spell is likely to peak on Monday afternoon. This early taste of summer will, however, not be rain-free. In fact, while there can be a scattered shower or thunderstorm at just about any time through tomorrow night, they will become more numerous on Saturday all along the I-95 corridor from DC-to-Philly-to-NYC. These showers and thunderstorms should then clear out of here in time to allow for a warm, dry and mostly sunny Mother’s Day on Sunday.

Temperatures on Monday afternoon could flirt with the 90 degree mark in the DC metro region, rise to the mid 80’s in Philly, and to near 80 degrees in New York City (normal highs are 73 at DCA, 71 at PHL and 68 in Central Park, NY). At the same time, it will turn much colder on Monday across the Rockies and central Plains and this could lead to an interesting nationwide weather picture featuring temperatures not far from 90 degrees in the DC metro region, accumulating snow in Denver, Colorado, and some wild weather in between those extremes. That colder air mass in the central and western states early next week will then definitely make a move towards the east coast. A cold front is likely to arrive in the Mid-Atlantic region by the middle of next week with showers and thunderstorms and then it’ll turn noticeably cooler again around here by the end of next week.

7:00 AM | Temperatures surge into the 80's today and stay well above normal through the weekend and into early next week

6-Day Forecast

Today

Early morning clouds, drizzle and patchy fog will give way to partly sunny skies and much warmer conditions, highs soaring to the low 80’s

Tonight

Mostly cloudy, quite mild, patchy fog late, lows in the low 60’s

Friday

Low clouds and patchy fog early then partly sunny, warm, slight chance for a shower or thunderstorm, low-to-mid 80’s

Friday Night

Mostly cloudy, mild, a few showers possible and maybe a thunderstorm, low 60’s

Saturday

Mostly cloudy, warm, showers and thunderstorms likely, near 80

Sunday

Becoming mostly sunny, warm, low 80's

Monday

Mainly sunny, very warm, mid-to-upper 80's

Tuesday

Partly sunny, very warm, showers and thunderstorms possible, mid 80's

Discussion

Much warmer air will surge into the DC metro region today and high temperatures will respond by climbing into the low 80's later this afternoon. Friday and the weekend will stay well above normal for this time of year with high temperatures on all three days at or above the 80 degree mark. While much of the time will be rain-free during this upcoming warm spell, there can be showers or thunderstorms at just about any time over the next few days and they will be especially likely on Saturday afternoon. Next week begins on the warm side, but a cold front will approach the Mid-Atlantic region by mid-week and it should turn much cooler again by the end of next week.

Video

httpv://youtu.be/oSp7lajw_zY

11:30 AM | Storm complex to hit the DC metro region by noon

Discussion

A batch of showers and thunderstorms is headed right towards the DC metro region and it will arrive right around the noon hour. Heavy rain, gusty winds, thunder and lightning will occur as this stormy area passes through the region between 11:45 am and 2PM. Some areas could pick up a quick half inch of rain with locally heavier amounts and it is quite likely to delay the Nationals early afternoon game at Nationals Park.

7:00 AM | Showers and thunderstorms arrive at midday and signal the approach of a warm front; 80's on the way for tomorrow afternoon and right through the weekend

6-Day Forecast

Today

Mostly cloudy, a bit on the cool side, showers and possible thunderstorms develop during the mid-day hours and some of the rain can be heavy at times into the mid-afternoon, highs not far from 70 degrees

Tonight

Cloudy, mild, a shower or thunderstorm possible, some fog late, lows not far from 55 degrees

Thursday

Becoming partly sunny, much warmer, still an outside chance for a shower or thunderstorm, low 80's

Thursday Night

Partly cloudy, mild, near 60

Friday

Partly sunny, very warm, low-to-mid 80’s

Saturday

Mainly cloudy, quite warm, showers and thunderstorms possible, near 80

Sunday

Partly sunny, warm, a shower or thunderstorm still possible, near 80

Monday

Partly sunny, warm, showers and thunderstorms possible, near 80

Discussion

Much warmer air has been building up in the southern portion of the country over the last few days with triple digits in parts of Texas and Oklahoma. This warm air mass is now pushing to the north and east and the warm front at its leading edge will produce showers and thunderstorms in the region beginning at mid-day and continuing into mid-afternoon. The warm air will surge into the DC metro region on Thursday afternoon, then into Philly on Friday, and finally, into the NYC metro region on Saturday. Temperatures around here should climb into the 80's tomorrow afternoon and should flirt with the 80 degree mark for highs right through the upcoming weekend.

Looking ahead, this surge of much warmer-than-normal air does not look like it will signal a long-term spell of above-normal weather for the Mid-Atlantic region. A cold front should arrive next Tuesday bringing cooler air to the Mid-Atlantic region by mid-week and then even colder air is likely to return to the region by the end of next week.

Video

httpv://youtu.be/oDp7_eIPkQc