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Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information
Filtering by Category: DC
[Latest radar image; courtesy NOAA]
Powerful storms have exploded just to the south and west of DC and NYC...get ready in those two metro regions and expect torrential downpours in the near term...Philly's time is coming a bit later on.
Heavy showers and strong-to-severe thunderstorms pounded much of the region late yesterday from DC-to-Philly-to-NYC, but today’s action could be even stronger with the potential for more extensive and greater damage. The explosive combination of a vigorous upper level low, strong upper level jet streak, strong surface cold front, and excessively humid air will lead to widespread showers and thunderstorms from this afternoon through tonight and even into early tomorrow morning in some areas. There is currently no "severe thunderstorm watch" for the region, but that will very likely be issued by the National Weather Service later today. The eastward progress of the strong surface cold front will slow later today/early tonight as upper level winds along the east coast become parallel to the “north-to-south” oriention of the frontal system. This will inhibit eastward movement by the front for several hours leading to the possibility of a serious dumping of rain across portions of eastern PA, southeastern NY, the Delmarva Peninsula and all of New Jersey. As a result, localized flooding is a serious concern as 2-4 inches of rain can fall in some areas in a relatively short period of time on top of already well-saturated grounds.
In addition to the flooding concerns, power outages are also a threat in parts of the region later today/early tonight caused by strong thunderstorm activity. The greatest threat for damaging thunderstorms will be between 2pm and 9pm in the I-95 corridor from DC-to-Philly-to-NYC, but heavy showers and strong thunderstorms can occur before and after that “severe weather” timetable and could even last into early Wednesday morning in some areas. The good news is that a refreshing air mass will push into the region later Wednesday with a substantial drop in overall humidity levels, but we’ll have to pay a price before we experience the invigorating change. Stay tuned.
Mostly cloudy, warm, very humid, numerous showers and thunderstorms likely from mid-day on through the afternoon, some of the rain can be heavy at times and some of the storms can reach strong-to-severe levels, highs in the upper 80’s
Showers and thunderstorms likely, some of the rain can be heavy at times and some of the storms can be strong-to-severe, mild, lows in the mid 60’s
Becoming partly-to-mostly sunny with lowering humidity, low 80’s
Mostly clear, comfortably cool, near 60
Mostly sunny, pleasantly cool, low 80's
Partly sunny, still on the cool side, maybe a shower or thunderstorm, low 80’s
Mostly cloudy, more humid, but still below-normal temperatures, chance for showers and thunderstorms, low 80’s
Mostly cloudy, humid, still below-normal temperatures, chance for showers and thunderstorms, low 80’s
An approaching strong cold frontal system combined with a vigorous upper level low will help to generate numerous showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening throughout the Mid-Atlantic region. Some of the rain that falls will be heavy at times and some of the thunderstorms can reach strong-to-severe levels. Flash flooding is a serious concern; especially, in those locations pounded by yesterday's strong storms and heavy rainfall. Another 1-3 inches of rain can fall this afternoon and tonight as this cold front grudingly works its way through the region. Much more refreshing air will push into the region later tomorrow with a noticeable drop in humidity levels.
Elsewhere, very chilly air for this time of year invaded the Upper Midwest/Northern Plains on Monday with low temperatures this morning as low as the upper 30's in some spots (e.g., Hettinger, North Dakota). Minneapolis had its coldest high temperature ever yesterday for July 14th at 65 degrees and the "Home Run Weather" app index only reached a 5 out of 10 last night for the MLB Home Run Derby. Tonight's All-Star game in Minneapolis should be one of the coldest on record with temperatures likely to drop from the 60's into the 50's. This very chilly air mass for the middle of July will modify some as it heads into the Mid-Atlantic region later tomorrow, but temperatures here for the rest of the week will be below normal.
httpv://youtu.be/UtK7iU1OAJ8
[Current NEXRAD radar image; courtesy University of Wisconsin]
Showers and thunderstorms have been increasing in coverage and intensity during the past couple of hours and this trend will continue into the evening. The combination of an unstable and very humid air mass with a deep upper level low and associated jet streak is producing a heavy rain and severe weather threat from DC-to-Philly-to-NYC for this afternoon and evening and it will do so on Tuesday and Tuesday night as well. In fact, the picture gets even more complex on Tuesday as a strong and slow-moving cold front will approach the region from the northwest. Any shower that forms during this unstable period of weather from this afternoon through tomorrow night can produce heavy rainfall in a short period of time and any thunderstorm can reach strong-to-severe levels with damaging wind gusts, torrential rain and possibly even some large hail. The National Weather Service has posted a "severe thunderstorm" watch for the entire I-95 corridor through 8PM and another one is likely to be issued later tomorrow. In addition, much of the region is under a “flash flood” watch as upwards of three inches of rainfall can accumulate by the time cooler and less humid air pushes in behind the cold front later Wednesday.
The current NEXRAD radar image (above; courtesy University of Wisconsin) for the Northeast US shows numerous showers and thunderstorms over interior higher elevation Mid-Atlantic locations and these will roll eastward to the I-95 corridor over the next couple of hours. The simulated radar from NOAA’s WRF-ARW high-resolution computer forecast model for 7PM this evening shows predicted heavy rainfall across eastern Pennsylvania/western New Jersey as well as just to the north and west of the DC metro region (below; courtesy NOAA and Capital Weather Gang).
[Simulated radar image for 7PM from the WRF-ARW computer forecast model; courtesy NOAA, Capital Weather Gang]
Mostly cloudy, quite warm, humid, showers and thunderstorms likely this afternoon, some of the rain can be heavy at times and some of the storms can be strong-to-severe, highs not far from 90 degrees
Showers and thunderstorms likely, some of the rain can be heavy at times and some of the storms can be strong-to-severe, mild, lows in the lower 70’s
Mostly cloudy, warm, humid, showers and thunderstorms likely, some of the rain can be heavy at times and some of the storms can be strong-to-severe, mid-to-upper 80’s
Showers and thunderstorms still likely during the evening, some of the rain can be heavy at times and some of the storms can be strong-to-severe, turning cooler late, low-to-mid 60’s
Becoming partly sunny with lowering humidity, low 80’s
Mostly sunny, pleasantly cool, near 80
Partly sunny, still very comfortable, low 80’s
Partly sunny, more humid, but still cooler-than-normal, chance for showers and thunderstorms, low 80’s
Several ingredients are setting up for a heavy rainfall threat that begins here this afternoon and continues through tomorrow night. Surface low pressure will begin to develop across the Great Lakes region later today as a deep upper level low swings slowly southeastward out of the Upper Mississippi Valley. A pre-frontal trough of low pressure will form near the east coast ahead of this unusually strong upper level low and this will be the focus for shower and thunderstorm development around here right through tomorrow night and some of the rainfall will be heavy at times. In addition to the heavy rain threat, another concern will be for severe weather. The atmosphere is quite unstable and any thunderstorm that forms later today and again later tomorrow can produce damaging wind gusts and hail - in addition to the heavy rainfall. A strong cold front will then push through the region by early Wednesday and usher in a refreshingly cool air mass into the Mid-Atlantic region for this time of year.
httpv://youtu.be/ZeRXsHwOcWU
Partly sunny, warm, highs in the mid 80’s
Partly cloudy, mild, lows in the upper 60’s
Partly sunny, warm, mid-to-upper 80’s
Partly cloudy, mild, upper 60’s
Partly sunny, quite warm, more humid, chance for showers and thunderstorms late, near 90
Partly sunny, quite warm, more humid, chance for showers and thunderstorms, near 90
Partly sunny, not quite as warm, chance for showers and thunderstorms, mid-to-upper 80’s
Mainly sunny, comfortable, low-to-mid 80’s
High pressure will take control today and provide the Mid-Atlantic region with pleasant weather conditions as we end the work week and begin the weekend. Humidity will begin to climb on Sunday as the high pressure system slides off the east coast allowing for the return flow of warmer and more humid air from our southwest. A strong cold front will approach the Mid-Atlantic region early next week enhancing our chances for showers and thunderstorms. That front will usher in cooler air to the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes and Northeast US later next week.
Partly sunny, warm, still the chance for late afternoon showers and thunderstorms and the rain can be heavy, highs in the mid 80’s
Chance for evening showers and thunderstorms and the rain can be heavy; otherwise, mostly cloudy, mild, lows in the mid-to-upper 60’s
Partly sunny, comfortable, mid 80’s
Partly cloudy, mild, mid-to-upper 60’s
Mostly sunny, warm, mid-to-upper 80’s
Partly sunny, very warm, more humid, chance for showers and thunderstorms late, near 90
Partly sunny, very warm, humid, chance for showers and thunderstorms, near 90
Partly sunny, not as warm, chance for showers and thunderstorms, mid-to-upper 80’s
A cold front worked its way through the region on Wednesday, but it will remain close enough to generate more showers and thunderstorms later today and early tonight and some of the rain can be heavy at times. High pressure will control the weather on Friday and Saturday providing us with pleasant overall conditions, but then the humidity will begin to climb again later in the weekend. The threat for showers and thunderstorms will rise significantly early next week with the approach of another strong cold front. That front should usher in cooler air for the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes and Northeast US later next week.
More clouds than sun, not as hot as yesterday, still the chance for showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon hours, highs not far from 90 degrees
Mostly cloudy, mild and muggy, slight chance for an evening shower or thunderstorm, lows in the upper 60’s
Mainly sunny, warm, slight chance for a shower or thunderstorm, mid-to-upper 80’s
Maybe an evening shower or thunderstorm; otherwise, partly cloudy, mild, mid-to-upper 60’s
Mostly sunny, warm, mid-to-upper 80’s
Mostly sunny, warm, upper 80’s
Partly sunny, quite warm, more humid, chance for showers and thunderstorms, near 90
Partly sunny, quite warm, chance for showers and thunderstorms, near 90
Yesterday featured the development of a squall line that formed early in the afternoon across the Ohio Valley and then it raced eastward across the interior Mid-Atlantic region reaching the I-95 corridor around 8pm with damaging wind gusts and brief heavy rainfall. A cold front arrives in the region today and it will then slowly settle just to the south of the area by later tomorrow. The threat for showers and thunderstorms will continue this afternoon in the Mid-Atlantic region and cannot be completely ruled out for Thursday afternoon. High pressure should then control the weather on Friday and Saturday providing us with pleasant overall conditions before more humidity returns to the area as we close out the weekend. Another cold front will then enhance the chances for showers and thunderstorms early next week ahead of a cool air mass for this time of year.
httpv://youtu.be/IPbMmjWitLw
[NOAA's HRRR model forecast map for radar reflectivity at 4pm today]
A squall line is now forming across eastern Ohio and it will intensify over the next couple of hours as it moves into western Pennsylvania, western New York and West Virginia. The combination of a strong cold front, very humid air mass, and impressive upper level support will help to generate strong-to-severe thunderstorms as the afternoon progresses. While the squall line should weaken slightly by the time it reaches the I-95 corridor, some nasty storms should make it all the way into the northern and western suburbs by this evening. NOAA’s latest High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) computer forecast model predicts the squall line will be in western Pennsylvania at 4pm (above) and then it'll reach the I-95 corridor by 8pm (below) - albeit in a slightly weakened state. The timetable for the arrival of this line of thunderstorms in the big cities along I-95 is as follows: 6-9pm in DC, 7-10 pm in Philly, and 8-11pm in the NYC metro region. Any storm that makes it into the I-95 corridor can produce damaging wind gusts, hail, and brief heavy rainfall with the highest chance for severe weather to the north and west of I-95.
[NOAA's HRRR model forecast map for radar reflectivity at 8pm today]
Partly sunny, breezy, hot and humid, chance for late day showers and thunderstorms, highs near 95 degrees
Mostly cloudy, mild and muggy, chance for showers and thunderstorms, lows in the low-to-mid 70’s
Partly sunny, not as hot, still the chance for showers and thunderstorms, near 90
Mostly cloudy, mild, muggy, slight chance for a shower or thunderstorm, mid-to-upper 60’s
Mostly sunny, warm, slight chance for a shower or thunderstorm, mid 80’s
Mostly sunny, warm, mid 80’s
Partly sunny, quite warm, chance for showers and thunderstorms late, upper 80’s
Partly sunny, very warm, chance for showers and thunderstorms, near 90
A cold front arrives in the region late today and it will slowly settle to the south of the area by Thursday. The threat for showers and thunderstorms will increase in much of the Mid-Atlantic region later today and tonight; especially, in areas to the N and W of Route I-95 and some of the storms that form can be on the strong side. The front should move just far enough to the south and east of the I-95 corridor later this week to allow for high pressure to build in on Thursday and Friday providing us with more pleasant conditions.
