Now that the latest Arctic frontal system that generated the first snowflakes of the season for many of us has pushed off the east coast, attention turns to the weekend possibilities. It looks like there will be one system that affects the I-95 corridor with rain from Friday night into early Saturday, and then a second – and far less certain – system could impact the region late Sunday. The second threat carries with it a bigger concern since - if it were to reach this area late Sunday - it would encounter much colder air than the initial system and snow would likely be the result.
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In the wake of yesterday’s Arctic frontal passage, temperatures today will struggle to reach the 30 degree mark and a persistent breeze will generate even lower wind chills. Temperatures will then modify on Thursday and Friday ahead of an influx of moisture from the southern states that reaches us by the end of the week. As a result of the slight warm up later this week, rain is likely to fall early this weekend as a system forms near the Northeast US coast line, but colder air could get wrapped in later in the weekend as a second system moves from the Gulf of Mexico towards the east coast.
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An energetic Arctic front with copious upper-level support is wreaking havoc today from the Ohio Valley to central and western sections of PA and NY. Buffalo, NY just recorded thunder snow with a wind gust to 64 mph and State College, PA broke its longest snowless streak ever recorded with a coating of the white stuff earlier today. While there will be flurries and snow showers this afternoon in the I-95 corridor, the heaviest band may not arrive until early tonight. Also, much like a summertime situation, don't be surprised to see some sunshine break out later this afternoon just ahead of the main squall line band of precipitation. A high-resolution computer forecast model (HRRR) is indicating that an impressive band of precipitation will arrive in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor approximately between 5 and 9PM (5-6pm DC, 7pm Philly, 8-9pm NYC). This band can be mixed with or even start as rain, but should end up producing snow and perhaps even a burst of heavier, wind-blown snow with small accumulations. Winds will also get quite gusty this afternoon and early tonight with 50 mph gusts possible in much of the Mid-Atlantic region. Following the frontal passage, reinforcing Arctic air will grip the area on Wednesday holding temperatures generally to the 20’s for highs.
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The first snowflakes of the season should fall later today as an energetic Arctic front arrives in the I-95 corridor featuring lots of upper-level support. Snow showers are likely to develop during the afternoon hours, possibly mixed with rain at times, and continue into the early evening and there can even be a brief burst of heavier snow in some spots with a minor accumulation. Reinforcing Arctic air pours into the region tonight on gusty winds - perhaps to 50 mph - and Wednesday will see temperatures failing to reach the 30 degree mark, but they will then modify later in the week. By the weekend, moisture is likely to push to the northeastern US from the Deep South and this will bring about a chance for rain (at least initially) in the I-95 corridor.
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An active weather pattern is setting up for the Mid-Atlantic region which will feature an energetic Arctic frontal passage later tomorrow and then a weekend storm threat. It is quite certain that the frontal passage later tomorrow and early tomorrow night will generate the first snowflakes of the season for much of the I-95 corridor, but the weekend system is far from being clear as to its impact on the region and requires more time for clarification.
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An active weather pattern is setting up for the Mid-Atlantic region with the combination of high-latitude blocking and an energetic southern branch of the jet stream. The first snowflakes of the season are likely later tomorrow and early tomorrow night as an Arctic front slides through the area. This front will have lots of upper-level support and it can even generate a small accumulation in parts of the DC metro region by early Wednesday. The second half of the week will feature generally cold and dry conditions. By the weekend, moisture is likely to push to the northeastern US from the Deep South and this will bring about a chance for rain in the I-95 corridor.
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Moisture has pushed in our direction from the southern states and there will be some light rain or drizzle at times from today and shower activity later tonight and Saturday. A second and more important system is likely to throw steadier and heavier rain our way from tomorrow night into early Sunday and this system will be followed by another Arctic air mass for the early part of next week. A reinforcing second blast of Arctic air will arrive here by Tuesday night. This secondary Arctic outbreak will have plenty of upper-level support which could result in snow showers around here Tuesday night and early Wednesday - perhaps even a heavier snow squall. This active frontal passage could even have an impact on the early Wednesday commute.
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High pressure will drift off the northeastern US coastline over the next couple of days and this will allow for some continued moderation in our temperatures. Moisture will push in our direction from the southern states late in the week and showers should break out here from late Friday into Saturday. A second and more important system is likely to throw rain our way late Saturday into early Sunday - some heavy at times - and then much colder air will follow for early next week. A reinforcing second blast of Arctic air will arrive here by the middle of next week. This mid-week Arctic frontal passage will have plenty of upper-level support which could result in snow showers or perhaps even snow squalls in some of the Mid-Atlantic region.
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The Arctic air mass in control around here during the past couple of days will modify somewhat today and we’ll turn slightly milder for the second half of the week. By the end of the week, moisture will spread northeastward from the Deep South and showers are likely later Friday into early Saturday. By late in the weekend, a more important rain event is possible from Saturday night into Sunday and this system will usher in much colder air for the early part of next week. This initial shot of more Arctic air will likely be followed by a second blast at mid-week. Elsewhere, the rain (coast) and snow (inland) will continue to pile up over the next few days across California thanks to El Nino enhanced Pacific Ocean storms. Also, next week's initial Arctic blast will arrive first in the Upper Midwest and the playoff football game in Minneapolis on Sunday is likely to be played with temperatures near zero.
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Arctic air continues to grip the region today, but it will ease during the second half of the week. By the end of the week, moisture will spread northeastward from the Deep South and rain is likely to affect the Mid-Atlantic late Friday and for parts of the upcoming weekend. Colder air will return by early next week which is looking quite cold across much of the nation.
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