1:15 PM | **Another weekend and another accumulating snow and ice threat for the Mid-Atlantic**

[Total snowfall forecast by the 12Z GFS for the upcoming event; map courtesy "tropicaltidbits.com", NOAA]

Discussion

Weekends have featured very active weather in recent weeks in the I-95 corridor and it looks like this weekend will be no exception. In fact, it appears that there could be a quick “thumping” of accumulating snow later Sunday; especially, in the region between Philly and New York City, and this accumulating snow will be followed by a period of icing. Sound familiar, in many ways this pattern resembles last weekend's situation in which bitter cold weather on Saturday was followed by accumulating snow and then a period of ice on Sunday. In fact, in another similar twist, much of last weekend’s frozen precipitation event took place with an unusual southerly wind direction as high pressure moved off the east coast – usually a recipe for rain around here - and a similar pattern is likely late this weekend. There does appear to be one difference from this upcoming event compared to last weekend and that is the idea that it appears the “thumping” of accumulating snow may take place farther north than last weekend - this time from Philly-to-NYC instead of from DC-to-Philly.

Currently, it looks like precipitation should arrive in the I-95 corridor in the form of snow during the afternoon hours on Sunday with accumulations likely at the onset. The snow will likely change rather quickly to a wintry mix in the DC metro region, but it could hold on as snow for a longer time in the region between Philly and NYC where a few inches can accumulate before a changeover finally takes place and there is a buildup of ice. Much like last weekend, a layer of crusty ice is likely to form on any snow that does accumulate in the I-95 corridor and precipitation should end by early Monday. Temperatures will start off the weekend at very cold levels in the single digits in some suburban locations, but should turn (temporarily) warmer next week before yet another impressive blast of Arctic air arrives on Thursday.

7:00 AM | Stays quite cold right through the weekend with snow and then a wintry mix likely later Sunday into early Monday

6-Day NYC Forecast

Today

Partly sunny, very cold, maybe a snow shower or two early, highs in the mid 20’s

Tonight

Mainly clear and very cold, lows not far from 10 degrees

Saturday

Mainly sunny, still quite cold, low-to-mid 20’s

Saturday Night

Partly cloudy, very cold, lows in the upper teens

Sunday

Becoming mostly cloudy, cold, chance for snow late in the day and snow or a wintry mix at night, mid 30’s

Monday

Mostly cloudy, not as cold, chance for snow early, near 40 degrees

Tuesday

Mostly cloudy, colder, chance for snow or rain at night, mid 30’s

Wednesday

Mostly cloudy, not as cold, chance for rain or snow, low-to-mid 40’s

Discussion

Cold weather will close out the work week and the weekend will remain well-below normal for this time of year. In fact, record cold is possible early Saturday as temperatures overnight will plunge to single digit territory in most areas which can break some records. February ends on Saturday and it will end up being one of the coldest February's ever in the NYC metro region where records go back quite a long time. As March begins on Sunday, a cold front will approach the Mid-Atlantic region. This front will likely generate some snow in the region later Sunday which could turn into a wintry mix from Sunday night into early Monday. The 40's are likely for highs by the middle of next week, but it'll be accompanied by rainfall, perhaps heavy at times, and then another batch of Arctic air is likely to return to the region by Thursday.

Video

httpv://youtu.be/NB-azcWSvzc

6:00 AM | *On the northwest fringe today of an area of snow*

6-Day NYC Forecast

Today

Cloudy with light snow possible during the late morning and mid-day hours, a coating of new snow is possible in some areas, cold, highs in the low-to-mid 20’s

Tonight

Cloudy, quite cold, chance for a snow shower or two, lows in the upper teens

Friday

Partly sunny, quite cold, blustery, low-to-mid 20’s

Friday Night

Partly cloudy, brutally cold, lows not far from 10 degrees

Saturday

Mostly sunny, still very cold, mid 20’s

Sunday

Becoming mostly cloudy, cold, chance for snow at night, mid 30’s

Monday

Mostly cloudy, not as cold, chance for rain or snow, near 40 degrees

Tuesday

Mostly cloudy, colder, chance for snow, mid 30’s

Discussion

An area of snow is moving towards the Mid-Atlantic coastline this morning and the I-95 corridor region between Philly and NYC is on its northwest fringe. The heaviest snowfall from this southern system will stay well south and east of the NYC metro region and any snowfall around here should only amount to a coating at most. Our Arctic cold pattern will be renewed for the late week time period as another batch of Arctic air pours into the region following the passage of the southern system.

1:00 PM | *An update on the snow threat for early Thursday*

Discussion

An area of moisture across the Deep South may come close enough to the NYC metro region to generate a coating to an inch or so during the morning hours on Thursday. Substantially more snowfall will occur from this southern storm well to the south of NYC with 2-5 inches of accumulation possible in coastal central and souther New Jersey This will be one of those snowfalls for the NYC region in which the lesser amounts should fall to the north and west (e.g., interior NW NJ) and the higher amounts to the south and east (e.g., coastal northern NJ, Long Island). Any slight shift in the storm track could still have a big impact on the forecasted snowfall estimates so stay tuned.

7:00 AM | Southern system skirts the I-95 corridor with light snow late tonight/early Thursday...after moderation today, Arctic air returns for the second half of the week

6-Day NYC Forecast

Today

Mainly sunny, breezy, not as harsh, highs in the low-to-mid 30’s

Tonight

Becoming cloudy, quite cold, lows in the middle teens

Thursday

Mostly cloudy, chance for some light snow, quite cold, low-to-mid 20’s

Thursday Night

Snow showers possible early; otherwise, partly cloudy, very cold, upper teens

Friday

Mostly cloudy, very cold, low 20’s

Saturday

Partly sunny, cold, upper 20's

Sunday

Becoming mostly cloudy, cold, chance for snow or a wintry mix at night, upper 30’s

Monday

Mostly cloudy, not as cold, chance for rain or snow, low 40’s

Discussion

Temperatures will moderate today ahead of another Arctic frontal system, but then we’ll return to the deep freeze for the latter part of the week following the frontal passage. Meanwhile, an area of moisture in the Deep South will head northeast today and will skirt the I-95 corridor region late tonight and early Thursday. Light snow is possible in the NYC metro region early Thursday and there can even be a coating of new snow in some areas. An inch or two is likely well to the south of the metro region across central NJ by the time the precipitation winds down later tomorrow.

Video

httpv://youtu.be/p0_ikWuPbCo

7:00 AM | Bitter cold for another day...modification on Wednesday...back in the deep freeze for Thursday and Friday

6-Day NYC Forecast

Today

Mainly sunny, still very cold, highs struggle to reach 20 degrees

Tonight

Mostly cloudy, maybe a snow shower or two after midnight, quite cold, lows hold nearly steady in the upper teens

Wednesday

Partly sunny, not as harsh, maybe a snow shower early, low-to-mid 30’s

Wednesday Night

Becoming cloudy, quite cold, mid-to-upper teens for lows

Thursday

Clouds early, maybe a few snow showers, then becoming partly sunny, brutal cold, near 20 degrees for highs

Friday

Partly sunny, still quite cold, low 20’s

Saturday

Partly sunny, not as harsh, near 30 degrees

Sunday

Partly sunny, cold, chance for snow at night, upper 30’s

Discussion

The beat goes on as far as the extreme cold is concerned in the eastern US. Temperatures this morning reached record low levels in many areas and, to make matters worse, there is accumulating snow falling as far south as Georgia. A small sampling of today's impressive record low temperatures include the following:

1) Pittsburgh, PA breaks a record held since 1914 (new record -9 degrees, old record -2 degrees) 2) Dulles Airport, VA absolutely annihilates the previous record by 18 degrees when it bottomed out at -4 degrees earlier today (old record of +14 degrees was set in 1967) 3) Buffalo, NY breaks a record held since 1889 by dropping to -7 degrees 4) Chicopee, MA breaks a record by 14 degrees (new record is -19 degrees, old record was -5 degrees set in 1948) 5) Windsor Locks, CT sets record at -8 degrees (old record of -4 degrees was set in 1907) 6) JFK Airport in NYC dropped to a record low of 7 degrees breaking the old record of 14 degrees set in 1968

Finally, while not a record, the low temperature this morning in Punxsutawney, PA was -21 degrees and the groundhog was heard saying "I told you so".

Temperatures here today will struggle to pass the 20 degree mark, but at least the winds will be on the light side so wind chills will not be much of an issue. Noticeable modification will take place on Wednesday ahead of the next Arctic front, but we'll get right back into the deep freeze during the second half of the week. An area of moisture that continues to bear watching will scoot just to our southeast early Thursday, but it could come just close enough to throw some snow showers into portions of the Mid-Atlantic region and any slight shift in the storm track could have an important impact on our local forecast.

7:00 AM | Another week...another Arctic blast (or two)

6-Day NYC Forecast

Today

Clouds this morning will give way to increasing amounts of sunshine, windy, very cold with temperatures into the teens during the day along with sub-zero wind chills

Tonight

Mostly clear, blustery, brutally cold with low temperatures not far from 0 degrees and sub-zero wind chills

Tuesday

Mostly sunny, still very cold, highs near 20 degrees

Tuesday Night

Mostly cloudy, chance for snow showers, quite cold, upper teens

Wednesday

Partly sunny, not as harsh, maybe a snow shower, low-to-mid 30’s

Thursday

Partly sunny, much colder again, windy, low 20’s

Friday

Partly sunny, still quite cold, low-to-mid 20’s

Saturday

Partly sunny, not as harsh, near 30 degrees

Discussion

After a temporary “warm-up” on Sunday following the weekend snowfall, more Arctic air is pouring into the Mid-Atlantic region today and the new work week will get off to a much colder start compared to the end of the weekend. Temperatures today will drop into the teens and an increasing wind will generate much lower wind chill values. Temperatures tonight will once again flirt with the 0 degree mark in much of the I-95 corridor and, unfortunately, that may not be the last time this week as brutal cold conditions are likely again late this week after the arrival of another Arctic blast.

Looking back to the significant weekend snowfall in the I-95 corridor, what was quite amazing is that it took place with a steady, strong southerly wind. In normal winters, this type of synoptic weather pattern would have produced little in the way of accumulating snow in the I-95 corridor; especially, in late February, but given the extreme cold heading into the weekend, even a southerly wind couldn’t stop accumulating snow in much of the region between DC and NYC.

Video

httpv://youtu.be/Ii6R6gtVw4E

7:45 AM | *****Heavy snow on the way with significant accumulations before a changeover to a period of ice*****

[Latest NEXRAD radar image with moisture in western sections of the Mid-Atlantic; courtesy University of Wisconsin]

Discussion

Skies remained clear for much of the night in the Mid-Atlantic region which allowed temperatures to fall to record levels in some areas. In fact, temperatures plunged to an amazing 6 degrees below zero this morning in Atlantic City, NJ breaking the record there and making this the latest date ever with sub-zero conditions. Records were also set this morning in Allentown, PA, Wilmington, DE and Trenton, NJ.

Meanwhile, those early morning partly cloudy can be deceiving…a mountain of moisture (see radar) is moving quickly from southwest-to-northeast right towards the I-95 corridor and - given these extremely cold temperatures - that spells trouble. Snow will arrive in the DC metro region during the mid-to-late morning hours, in Philly during the mid-day hours, and in NYC during the late afternoon hours. The snow will fall heavily shortly after its arrival with quick accumulations and rapid deterioration in road conditions. The snow will ultimately change to a period of icing (sleet, freezing rain) after significant accumulations and this will add a layer of ice on top of the snow. Towards the latter stages of this storm, areas in the immediate I-95 corridor and points to the south and east of there may actually change to plain rain with above freezing temperatures, but the plain rain and “milder” weather will not be major factor in this upcoming event – frozen precipitation-type (i.e., snow, sleet, freezing rain) will dominate with a thumping of accumulating snow at the onset. In some of the farther N and W suburbs, temperatures will probably not even make it above the freezing mark throughout this precipitation event. Precipitation winds down early Sunday and another brutally cold Arctic blast will arrive on Monday - we'll be flirting with 0 degrees once again by the time Tuesday morning rolls around.

Snow accumulations will generally be higher the farther north and west one goes away from the big cities along I-95. As a result, here are the latest snowfall estimates which will take place before the changeover:

DC: 4-8 in an around the immediate District region; 6-10 inches in the northern and western suburbs

Philly: 3-6 inches in and around the immediate Philly metro region; 4-8 inches in the northern and western suburbs

NYC: 3-6 inches in and around the immediate NYC metro region; 4-8 inches in the northern and western suburbs

2:30 PM | ****More on today' extreme cold and tomorrow's accumulating snow and ice threat****

Discussion

More on today’s extreme cold A bit more on this morning’s extreme cold in the eastern US... dozens and dozens of records were set this morning throughout the eastern US and some are summarized in the table above provided by NOAA. Philadelphia International Airport bottomed out at 2 degrees above zero which did not break a record as it missed a tie by just one degree; however, it was the coldest reading in Philadelphia since January 20, 1994 – i.e., the coldest in Philly in 21 years. Reagan National Airport in Washington, DC broke a record held there since 1896 by reaching 5 degrees this morning. This was the first time since 1996 in Washington, DC that the temperature fell to as low as 5 degrees (above zero).. Lynchburg, Virginia absolutely smashed their daily record this morning by plunging to -11 degrees with the previous record of +7 degrees being set in 1896. In fact, this turned out to be the all-time lowest temperature ever recorded in Lynchburg, Virginia. Additionally, Flint, Michigan attained their all-time low temperature this morning by plunging to -25 degrees. Earlier in the week, Cape Girardeau, Missouri (-19 degrees), Erie, Pennsylvania (-18 degrees), and Jamestown, New York (-31 degrees) set their all-time low temperature records.

Accumulating snow and ice threat on Saturday A large area of moisture is headed our way this weekend and it will arrive during the day on Saturday in the form of snow with accumulations very likely followed by an extended period of icing (sleet, freezing rain) in many areas. Eventually, advancing warmer air will likely cause a changeover of the snow to sleet and freezing rain and then ultimately to plain rain - at least in the immediate I-95 corridor and points south and east. However, before the snow changes to sleet and freezing rain, it is likely that snow accumulations reach 2-5 inches in the region from DC-to-Philly-to-NYC with the higher amounts in that range to the north and west and the lesser amounts to the south and east. There will be an extended period of icing following the accumulating snow and before any eventual change to plain rain. Snow should develop in the DC metro region during the late morning-to-mid-day hours, in Philly during the mid-day-to-early afternoon hours, and in the NYC region by late afternoon. The period of icing is in DC is likely during the late afternoon/early evening hours, in Philly during the early-to-mid part of tomorrow night and then late at night in the NYC region. Before the snow mixes with and then changes over to sleet and freezing rain, it will come down quite heavily at times. Given the extremely cold ground conditions and potential heavy snowfall before the changeover, snow accumulations will likely be quite rapid.

6:00 AM | ****Arctic blast punishes the eastern US this morning...accumulating snow follows late Saturday****

[Record or near record lows this morning throughout the eastern US; map courtesy "coolwx.com"]

6-Day NYC Forecast

Today

The coldest day of the year so far…brutally cold with mostly sunny skies, temperatures struggle to reach the 15 degree mark after near zero morning lows, winds remain quite brisk into the early afternoon producing painfully cold sub-zero wind chills, but then the winds will diminish late in the day

Tonight

Partly cloudy, calm, bitter cold with low temperatures in the upper single digits

Saturday

Becoming cloudy, accumulating snow likely to develop during the late afternoon hours, temperatures moderate to near 30 degrees by later in the day after a very cold start

Saturday Night

Snow in the evening likely mixes with or changes to sleet and freezing rain, but not before accumulations on the order of 2-5 inches, temperatures hold steady near 30 degrees

Sunday

Mixed precipitation may change to plain rain before ending at mid-day, milder, highs near 40 degrees

Monday

Partly sunny, much colder again, windy, low 20’s

Tuesday

Partly sunny, quite cold, low 20’s

Wednesday

Mostly cloudy, breezy, cold, chance for snow, near 30 degrees

Discussion

Arctic air is punishing the eastern US this morning with many records broken and freezing temperatures all the way down to southern Florida - welcome to spring training. Some Mid-Atlantic records this morning include State College, PA at -8 degrees, 5 degrees at Reagan National Airport in DC which broke a long-standing record held there since 1896, BWI Airport in Baltimore, MD at 1 degree above zero, Wilmington, DE and Trenton, NJ broke records, and the list goes on and on. Today will be the coldest day of the winter so far as temperatures reluctantly rise into the middle teens from near zero starting points. Winds will continue to be quite brisk into the early afternoon with painfully cold sub-zero wind chills, but then the winds should diminish as we heads towards the evening. The weekend brings a complicated precipitation forecast to the region and it looks like it will include accumulating snow on the order of 2-5 inches with the higher amounts in that range to the north and west and the lower amounts to the south and east.

A large area of moisture is headed our way for Saturday and Saturday night and it should arrive at a time in which Arctic air is still in place. Eventually, advancing warmer air will likely cause a changeover of the snow to sleet and/or freezing rain and perhaps even ultimately to plain rain. However, before the snow mixes with or changes to sleet and/or freezing rain, there are likely to be snow accumulations on the order of 2-5 inches. By later Saturday evening there is likely to be a period of icing with sleet and/or freezing rain before any possible changeover to plain rain ever takes place. The precipitation winds down Sunday mid-day and then another blast of cold Arctic air will arrive by early next work week. More accumulating snow threatens the Mid-Atlantic region by the middle of next week. Overall, this punishing weather pattern shows no signs of letting up its tight grip on the eastern US.

Video

httpv://youtu.be/Fet5z_S6Z0U