7:00 AM | First freeze possible this weekend in northern and western suburbs

6-Day NYC Forecast

Today

Mainly sunny, breezy, a bit cooler, highs in the mid-to-upper 60’s

Tonight

Partly cloudy, quite cool, upper 40’s

Thursday

Mainly sunny, cool, mid 60’s

Thursday Night

Partly cloudy, cool, near 50 degrees

Friday

Partly sunny, cool, maybe a shower, mid 60’s

Saturday

Mainly sunny, breezy, quite chilly, mid-to-upper 50’s; possible freeze late at night in suburban locations

Sunday

Mainly sunny, quite chilly, low-to-mid 50’s; possible freeze late at night in suburban locations

Monday

Mainly sunny, still quite chilly, mid-to-upper 50’s

Discussion

A cool air mass has pushed into the Mid-Atlantic region following the passage of a weak cold front on Tuesday. A much stronger cold front will arrive on Friday – perhaps with an isolated shower or two – and it will usher in a cold air mass for the weekend in the Mid-Atlantic region for this time of year. In fact, for the first time this season, it is quite likely that low temperatures approach the freezing mark in some suburban locations to the north and west late Saturday night/early Sunday morning and late Sunday night/early Monday morning. It turns noticeably milder again by the middle of next week.

Video

httpv://youtu.be/QLYHDhRE8DQ

7:00 AM | Coldest air yet this season arrives for the weekend

6-Day NYC Forecast

Today

Mostly cloudy skies with a couple of showers possible primarily during the mid-day and early afternoon hours, comfortable temperatures with highs in the low 70’s

Tonight

An evening shower possible; otherwise, mostly cloudy skies, cool, lows in the mid 50’s

Wednesday

Partly sunny, breezy, cooler, mid-to-upper 60’s

Wednesday Night

Partly cloudy, quite cool, mid-to-upper 40’s

Thursday

Mainly sunny, cool, low-to-mid 60’s

Friday

Partly sunny, cool, maybe a shower, low 60’s

Saturday

Mainly sunny, breezy, quite chilly, mid-to-upper 50’s; possible freeze late at night in suburbs

Sunday

Mainly sunny, quite chilly, mid 50’s; possible freeze late at night in suburbs

Discussion

A weak cold front will arrive today and it could set off a few mid-day showers, but then clearing is likely late in the day. This front will usher in another cool air mass for the mid-week time period and then a second and stronger cold front will arrive on Friday. That late week cold front will usher in some serious cold air for this time of year for the upcoming weekend in the Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast US. Low temperatures near the freezing mark are quite possible late Saturday night/early Sunday and again late Sunday night/early Monday in some suburban locations of the I-95 big cities.

7:00 AM | Weak cool front ushers in another cool air mass for the second half of the week...downright cold air mass for the upcoming weekend

6-Day NYC Forecast

Today

Mainly sunny, comfortable, highs in the low-to-mid 70’s (normal high at Central Park is now 65 degrees)

Tonight

Mostly cloudy, cool, chance for a shower late, lows in the upper 50’s

Tuesday

Mostly cloudy, breezy, mild, chance for a few showers, near 70 degrees

Tuesday Night

Mostly cloudy, an evening shower possible, turning cooler late, low-to-mid 50’s

Wednesday

Partly sunny, breezy, quite cool, mid 60’s

Thursday

Mainly sunny, cool, mid 60’s

Friday

Partly sunny, cool, maybe a shower, low 60’s

Saturday

Mainly sunny, breezy, cool, mid 50’s

Discussion

High pressure is in control as we begin a new work week and there should be plenty of sunshine today along with rather comfortable overall conditions. A weak cold front will arrive early tomorrow – perhaps accompanied by a few showers during the morning and mid-day hours – and this frontal passage will be followed by another cool air mass for Wednesday and Thursday. Another cold frontal system will arrive on Friday and it will usher in a downright cold air mass for the upcoming weekend that will be way below normal for this time of year.

7:00 AM | Frontal system showers later today, maybe a gusty thunderstorm...cool weekend follows

6-Day NYC Forecast

Today

Mainly cloudy, warmer, breezy, more humid, good chance for late afternoon showers, maybe a brief, gusty thunderstorm, highs in the mid-to-upper 70’s

Tonight

Showers still possible early, maybe a thunderstorm; otherwise, clouds early give way to late clearing, turning cooler late, lows by morning in the middle 50’s

Saturday

Becoming mostly sunny, breezy, quite cool, low 60’s

Saturday Night

Mainly clear, quite chilly with the lowest temperatures so far this season in suburban locations, lows in the low-to-mid 40’s outside of town, upper 40's in town

Sunday

Mainly sunny, cool, upper 60’s

Monday

Mainly sunny, pleasant, low 70's

Tuesday

Partly sunny, comfortable, maybe a shower, near 70 degrees

Wednesday

Partly sunny, cooler, mid 60’s

Discussion

A strong cool front will arrive in the Mid-Atlantic region today and it is going to break our recent dry spell with occasional showers and perhaps a brief, gusty thunderstorm or two - gusts can reach 50+ mph in isolated spots. This does not look like a significant rain event and it should pull out of here in time for a decent, but quite cool weekend. In fact, temperatures late Saturday night/early Sunday morning are likely to drop to the lowest levels of the season so far in suburban locations with lows way down in the 40's in many spots. Another cool front arrives on Tuesday of next week and it will be followed by another cool air mass for the mid-week time period.

Video

httpv://youtu.be/kDE8L3m9tUQ

7:00 AM | Quite a cool air mass follows for the weekend after Friday showers

6-Day NYC Forecast

Today

Mainly sunny, a bit cooler, highs in the upper 60’s

Tonight

Increasing clouds, cool, lows in the upper 50’s

Friday

Mainly cloudy, warmer, more humid, good chance for showers, maybe a thunderstorm, mid-to-upper 70’s

Friday Night

Showers likely early, maybe a thunderstorm, turning cooler late, lows by morning near 55 degrees

Saturday

Early clouds give way to sunshine, breezy, quite cool, low 60’s

Sunday

Mainly sunny, cool, mid 60’s

Monday

Mainly sunny, pleasant, upper 60’s

Tuesday

Partly sunny, comfortable, low 70’s

Discussion

A strong cool front will approach the region on Friday and it is likely to generate numerous showers and possibly a thunderstorm or two; however, this does not look like a signficant rain event. This front will be followed by a cool air mass for the weekend as high pressure builds back into the area.

7:00 AM | Next threat for showers comes on Friday...rocket launch tonight at NASA/Wallops may be visible here

6-Day NYC Forecast

Today

Clouds give way to partly sunny skies, nice, highs in the mid 70’s

Tonight

Partly cloudy, quite cool late, lows in the lower 50’s

Thursday

Mainly sunny, a bit cooler, low 70's

Thursday Night

Partly cloudy, cool, near 55 degrees

Friday

Mainly cloudy, warm, more humid, good chance for showers, maybe a thunderstorm, mid 70’s

Saturday

An early shower possible; otherwise, becoming partly sunny, breezy, cooler, mid 60’s

Sunday

Mainly sunny, cool, mid 60’s

Monday

Mainly sunny, comfortably cool, upper 60’s

Discussion

Our overall quiet and dry weather pattern will continue for the next couple of days as high pressure across the northern tier of the US continues to have an influence on our weather here in the NYC metro region. A strong cold front approaches on Friday and it is likely to generate numerous showers in the region and then a cool air mass will follow for the upcoming weekend.

One final note…there is a launch scheduled for this evening (7-9pm) at the NASA/Wallops facility and it could be visible in the NYC metro region depending upon cloud cover (look low in the southern sky). In addition, one of the main purposes of this experiment is to generate "glowing vapor” clouds which also may be visible in this region way up in the sky. For more info: http://vencoreweather.com/2015/10/05/1245-pm-nasa-launch-tomorrow-evening-should-be-visible-in-the-mid-atlantic-region/

7:00 AM | Quiet weather continues

6-Day NYC Forecast

Today

Mainly sunny, nice, highs near 70 degrees

Tonight

Partly cloudy, cool, lows in the upper 50’s

Wednesday

Mainly sunny, pleasant, low 70’s

Wednesday Night

Partly cloudy, cool, low 50’s

Thursday

Mainly sunny, a bit cooler, mid-to-upper 60’s

Friday

Mainly cloudy, more humid, good chance for showers, near 70 degrees

Saturday

Partly sunny, a bit cooler, low-to-mid 60’s

Sunday

Mainly sunny, comfortably cool, mid 60’s

Discussion

High pressure centered over northern New England remains in control of our weather today, but it’ll push away tomorrow and a weak cold front will cross the area. While this mid-week front is likely to come through on the dry side, a stronger front will approach on Friday and it is quite likely to generate numerous showers in the Mid-Atlantic region. One final note…the launch originally set for tonight at NASA/Wallops has been postponed until tomorrow night.

7:00 AM | A much quieter week in store for the region

6-Day NYC Forecast

Today

Partly sunny, comfortably cool, highs in the low-to-mid 60’s

Tonight

Partly cloudy, cool, lows in the lower 50’s

Tuesday

Mainly sunny, pleasant, near 70 degrees

Tuesday Night

Partly cloudy, cool, mid 50’s

Wednesday

Mainly sunny, nice, low 70's

Thursday

Mainly sunny, cooler, mid-to-upper 60’s

Friday

Mainly cloudy, cool, good chance for showers, upper 60’s

Saturday

Partly sunny, cool, low-to-mid 60’s

Discussion

Hurricane Joaquin continues to trek across the Atlantic Ocean this morning now to the northwest of Bermuda and high pressure will build into the Mid-Atlantic region over the next couple of days. The bullseye of the weekend rainfall occurred over South Carolina where 2 feet of rain fell in spots aided by a deep, slow-moving upper-level trough and stationary strong high pressure to the north. It is likely to stay rain-free around here for much of the week with the next good chance for showers coming on Friday as a cold front approaches the region.

7:00 AM | **Rain, wind in the Mid-Atlantic region...Joaquin continues to churn over the western Atlantic..."out to sea" solution still most likely**

6-Day NYC Forecast

Today

Cloudy, windy, quite cool, periods of rain, some of the rain will be heavy at times, highs in the lower 50’s

Tonight

Cloudy, windy, cool, periods of rain, some of the rain will be heavy at times, lows in the mid-to-upper 40's

Saturday

Cloudy, windy, quite cool, periods of rain likely; especially, during the first part of the day, middle 50's

Saturday Night

Cloudy, windy, cool, showers possible, low 50’s

Sunday

Considerable clouds, windy, cool, showers possible, low 60’s

Monday

Partly sunny, windy, cool, chance of showers, upper 60’s

Tuesday

Partly sunny, pleasant, upper 60’s

Wednesday

Partly sunny, nice, near 70 degrees

Discussion

Hurricane Joaquin continues to churn near the Bahama Islands as a category 4 storm and is under the influence of weakening upper-level ridging, but soon it will come under the influence of an upper-level trough. Once this upper-level trough approaches the hurricane, it will likely turn northward and then northeast away from the US east coast. In the meantime, the combination of a cold front, strong high pressure to the north, and a "nor'easter-like" low pressure system will produce heavy rainfall and strong onshore winds in the Mid-Atlantic region right into tomorrow. Rainfall amounts of one to as much as four inches are possible in the I-95 corridor from this setup by later tomorrow (the higher amounts near DC, the lesser amounts near NYC). Winds will remain persistent out of the northeast over the next 24 hours with 35 mph gusts at inland locations and 50 mph gusts at the coast. Farther south, staggering amounts of rain can fall over the next few days with 1-2 feet possible in parts of the Carolinas and widespread flooding is quite likely in that part of the country.

Video

httpv://youtu.be/J_ZTu9d0aWQ

12:40 PM | **“Out to sea” solution for Hurricane Joaquin continues to look viable**

[Satellite image of Hurricane Joaquin from GOES West; courtesy NOAA]

Discussion

Hurricane Joaquin has strengthened slightly in the past few hours with sustained winds now at 125 mph and central pressure at 27.82 inches. Joaquin (image above) has moved slowly to the southwest during the past several hours, but the shortwave ridge causing this motion is weakening and an upper-level trough is developing over the Southeast US. Once this upper-level trough becomes well-established by the weekend, it is likely to begin to influence Joaquin's movement. In fact, the hurricane is likely to turn northward on a track towards the US east coast early in the weekend; however, odds are increasing that Joaquin will then steer away from the coast later in the weekend without ever making landfall.

In the meantime, the combination of a cold front, strong, stationary high pressure to the north, and a "nor'easter-like" low pressure system will produce heavy rainfall and increasingly strong onshore winds in the Mid-Atlantic region from later today into Saturday as the pressure gradient tightens between the high and low. Rainfall amounts of one to three inches are possible in the I-95 corridor between now and early Saturday (higher near DC, lower near NYC) and there can be minor-to-moderate coastal flooding. Winds will be persistent out of the northeast with 30 mph gusts possible at inland locations by the weekend and up to 50 mph at the coast.

Farther south, staggering amounts of rain can fall over the next several days with 1-2 feet possible in parts of the Carolinas and widespread flooding is quite likely in that part of the country. Should Joaquin ever impact the Mid-Atlantic region with a direct hit – and odds are slowly diminishing - it would be in the Sunday-Tuesday time frame. Indeed, odds are probably better right now for some sunshine in the Mid-Atlantic region by the time Sunday afternoon rolls around rather than "stormy" conditions associated with Joaquin; however, stay tuned as this is a slow-moving dangerous hurricane that comes awfully close to the coast for comfort.

[The latest track of Joaquin from NOAA's Hurricane Center].