A frontal system stalls out later today across the southern Mid-Atlantic region and its distance result in rain-free conditions in southeastern NY. A couple of low pressure systems will push along the frontal boundary zone later in the week and we’ll likely see a returning threat of showers as we progress through the remainder of the work week. High pressure will resume control of the weather around here this weekend with some sunshine expected both days along with very reasonable temperatures for this time of year.
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Large scale northwesterly flow in the upper part of the atmosphere this time of year in the Mid-Atlantic region often results in severe weather threats and there is just such a possibility from this afternoon into tonight. The zone with the best chance of strong-to-severe thunderstorm activity later today will likely be from the DC metro region/Delmarva Peninsula on the southern end to central/eastern Pennsylvania on the northern end as the remnants of an overnight “mesoscale convective system (MCS) appear to be headed right towards that region. Northwesterly flow aloft in this part of the nation usually is the result of strong high pressure ridging to the southwest of here and embedded shortwaves often move in a northwest-to-southeast fashion in the outer perimeter of this kind of system.
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The combination of an approaching cold front and an upstream batch of showers and thunderstorms will keep it somewhat unsettled around here later today and tonight with the chance of PM showers and thunderstorms. This same frontal system will meander to the south of here through the remainder of the week bringing us more unsettled weather on Thursday and Friday with the chance of additional showers and thunderstorm activity. High pressure may take back control of the weather later in the weekend.
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The holiday weekend will start off on the unsettled side with a slow-moving frontal system in the Mid-Atlantic region on Saturday. This system is likely to generate scattered showers and thunderstorms as we begin the long weekend and some of the storms can be on the strong side. A shower or thunderstorm is still possible on Sunday and on Monday - the 4th of July - but the chances will be lower than during the beginning stages of the weekend. Looking ahead, a northwest flow aloft could result in another round of severe weather for the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US by the middle of next week from a system that is headed for the Upper Midwest.
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The heat and humidity will build over the next couple of days with temperatures by tomorrow afternoon climbing into the 90’s. The holiday weekend will start off on the unsettled side on Saturday with a slow-moving frontal system in the Mid-Atlantic region. This system is likely to generate scattered showers and thunderstorms as we begin the long weekend and some of the storms can be on the strong. A shower or thunderstorm is still possible on Sunday and on Monday - the 4th of July - but the chances will be less than during the beginning stages of the weekend.
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After a comfortable day on Tuesday, the heat and humidity will begin to slowly build up over the next couple of days and by the time we get to Friday afternoon, we’ll be uncomfortably humid with temperatures likely reaching the low-to-mid 90’s. The 4th of July holiday weekend will start off on the unsettled side on Saturday with a slow-moving frontal system in the Mid-Atlantic region and it could very well remain somewhat unsettled on Sunday as well. The chance of showers and thunderstorms will be pretty high on Saturday afternoon and evening and the rain threat could linger into Sunday. One final note, there is a whiff of wildfire smoke noticeable this morning in the Mid-Atlantic region that originated in the southern part of Canada and traveled here on a northwest-to-southeast wind flow in the mid-levels of the atmosphere.
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A cold front passed through the region late yesterday and today will be a comfortable day in the Mid-Atlantic region with pleasant temperatures and much lower humidity values than yesterday. It turns much warmer and humid again by later in the week with highs at 90+ degrees by Thursday afternoon and Friday. The weekend could at least start off somewhat unsettled with a frontal system nearby on Saturday and possible scattered showers and thunderstorms.
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It’ll be quite humid today, but not as warm as yesterday, and there is a good chance for showers and thunderstorms as a cold front crosses the region. This front will usher in another comfortable air mass for the Mid-Atlantic region setting us up for a nice Tuesday with low humidity levels. Temperatures will then climb back to the 90’s later in the week and the holiday weekend is looking somewhat unsettled from this vantage point as a frontal system likely stalls in the region. As a result of the nearby frontal system, there may be scattered showers and thunderstorms on both Saturday and Sunday.
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After an unseasonably cool day on Thursday, a warming trend will begin today boosted in large part by the return of sunshine. High temperatures this afternoon should end up in the lower 80’s and then the upper 80’s are likely this weekend with sunshine on both days. Another comfortable air mass will move into the Mid-Atlantic region early next week following the passage of a cold front that can result in showers and thunderstorms late Sunday night and Monday.
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The weather remains somewhat unsettled today with a nearby stationary front and a continuation of the shower threat, perhaps a thunderstorm. The combination of clouds and a low-level ocean flow of air will keep temperatures well below-normal for this time of year with highs in the low-to-mid 70’s. A warming trend will begin on Friday and the weekend will become quite warm with sunshine on both days. Another cool front will arrive by the early part of next week ushering in another comfortable air mass for the Mid-Atlantic region.
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