12:00 PM | The onset of El Nino and what it could mean

Discussion

There are important changes going on in the tropical Pacific Ocean in terms of sea surface temperatures that will likely have ramifications on the overall US and tropical Atlantic weather for the next several months. For almost two years now, sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific have been below normal (La Nina). It now appears, however, that an El Nino is developing with above normal sea surface temperatures off of the west coast of South America and that transformation could very well last right into the 2012-2013 winter months. In terms of possible effects on the weather in the US and tropical Atlantic this summer, the developing El Nino could do the following based on analog years:

1) diminish the chances for widespread and long-lasting heat 2) diminish the threat for drought in certain places like the southeastern part of the country and 3) diminish tropical Atlantic storm development as there is a tendency for greater vertical wind shear in the Atlantic which inhibits storm formation.

Looking way ahead, the newly emerging El Nino could have an impact on the upcoming winter weather here in the US, but much of that will depend on the strength that it ultimately reaches. In general, strong El Nino events feature less snow in the eastern US whereas weak-to-moderate events have been known to produce heavier wintertime snowfall amounts. My guess at this point is that this El Nino will remain in the weak-to-moderate range as winter approaches, but we’ll continue to monitor that over the next several months. El Ninos tend to be weaker and less frequent during periods of "negative" Pacific Decadal Oscillations (PDOs) as were are currently experiencing in the northern Pacific. One thing is pretty certain at this point in time, the overall pattern during the upcoming winter will very likely be quite different in the tropical Pacific compared to last winter when there was a moderately strong La Nina.

Video

httpv://youtu.be/75dgOCffV0Q

7:00 AM | Cool, breezy conditions continue for much of the week

6-Day Forecast

Today

Becoming mostly sunny after early morning clouds and fog, windy, a bit cooler than normal, upper 60’s

Tonight

Mostly clear early, breezy, possible low clouds and fog late, low 60’s

Wednesday

Becoming mostly sunny after early morning clouds and fog, breezy, still a bit cooler than normal, upper 60’s

Wednesday Night

Mostly clear early, patchy fog late, near 60

Thursday

Fog possible early then mostly sunny skies, breezy, cool, mid 60’s

Friday

Fog possible early then mostly sunny skies, cool, mid 60’s

Saturday

Fog possible early then mostly sunny skies, a tad milder, upper 60’s

Sunday

Fog possible early then mostly sunny skies, near 70

Discussion

An onshore flow of air will rule for much of the week and that will lead to generally slightly cooler-than-normal temperatures in the LA metro region along with breezy, rain-free conditions. The typical dailypattern for the week will be some late night and early morning clouds and fog followed by afternoon sunshine and breezy and cool conditions. The onshore flow will tend to weaken late in the week and weekend and that will lead to slightly milder weather on Saturday and Sunday.

Video

httpv://youtu.be/44KuUKNd6k8

7:00 AM | Brief cool down is over and temperatures will climb again into the 80's

6-Day Forecast

Today

Partly sunny, becoming warmer than yesterday, an isolated afternoon shower or thunderstorm, low 80's

Tonight

An isolated early evening shower or thunderstorm; otherwise, partly cloudy skies, breezy, cool, low 50’s

Wednesday

Mostly sunny, even warmer, breezy, near 90

Wednesday Night

Partly cloudy, cool, mid 50’s

Thursday

Mostly sunny, warm, chance for a few thunderstorms, near 90

Friday

Mostly sunny, warm, still the chance for a few thunderstorms, upper 80’s

Saturday

Mainly sunny, maybe a shower or thunderstorm, mid-to-upper 80’s

Sunday

Partly sunny, maybe a shower or thunderstorm, mid-to-upper 80’s

Discussion

A warming trend will begin today with high temperatures climbing back into the 80's once again and highs will likely climb to near 90 for the next few days. While a shower or thunderstorm cannot be ruled out for the next couple of days, an increase in low level moisture will increase our chances somewhat for scattered storms on Thursday and Friday.

Video

httpv://youtu.be/44KuUKNd6k8

7:00 AM | Pleasant temperatures to start the new week

6-Day Forecast

Today

Mostly sunny, breezy, pleasant, a late day shower or thunderstorm cannot be ruled out, upper 70’s

Tonight

Partly cloudy, cool, lows near 50

Tuesday

Mostly sunny, warmer, breezy, a shower or thunderstorm possible during the afternoon, low 80's

Tuesday Night

Mostly clear, cool, low 50’s

Wednesday

Mostly sunny, even warmer, mid-to-upper 80’s

Thursday

Mostly sunny, warm, maybe a shower or thunderstorm, upper 80’s

Friday

Partly sunny, maybe a shower or thunderstorm, upper 80’s

Saturday

Partly sunny, maybe a shower or thunderstorm, low 80’s

Discussion

Cooler weather returned to the Rockies on Sunday after a strong cold frontal system swept through the region early in the day. Temperatures will start off the week below normal, which is now about 81 degrees for the highs, as we’ll likely stay in the mid 70’s on Monday. However, the mid-week time frame will feature highs well up into the 80’s once again and it looks like we’ll stay in the 80's right into the weekend.

Video

httpv://youtu.be/MsGtKn2HVTw

7:00 AM | General cool pattern continues for the west coast

6-Day Forecast

Today

Mainly sunny skies after early morning clouds and fog, breezy, a bit cooler than normal, upper 60’s

Tonight

Mostly clear early, breezy, possible low clouds and fog late, lows near 60

Tuesday

Mainly sunny skies after early morning clouds and fog, windy, cool, upper 60’s

Tuesday Night

Mostly clear early, patchy fog late, near 60

Wednesday

Fog possible early then mostly sunny skies, cool, mid-to-upper 60’s

Thursday

Fog possible early then mostly sunny skies, cool, mid 60’s

Friday

Fog possible early then mostly sunny skies, cool, mid-to-upper 60’s

Saturday

Fog possible early then mostly sunny skies, cool, mid 60’s

Discussion

The general longer term trend (6-10 days) is for cooler-than-normal weather to continue along the west coast. For today, the normal high temperature is around 70 degrees at Los Angeles Airport and we’ll be a few degrees below that mark for much of the week. The typical pattern for the week will be some late night and early morning low clouds and fog with afternoon sunshine along with breezy and cool conditions.

Video

httpv://youtu.be/MsGtKn2HVTw

7:00 AM | 90 degrees or above for highs today and tomorrow; cooler early next week

6-Day Forecast

Today

Mostly sunny, very warm, near 90

Tonight

Partly cloudy, cool, lows near 60

Saturday

Mostly sunny, windy, very warm, low 90’s

Saturday Night

Mostly clear, cool, upper 50’s

Sunday

Mostly sunny, not quite as warm, low 80’s

Monday

Mostly sunny, even cooler, upper 70’s

Tuesday

Partly sunny, maybe a shower or thunderstorm, near 80

Wednesday

Partly sunny, maybe a shower or thunderstorm, near 80

Discussion

Cooler weather will return to the Rockies late this weekend and for the early part of next week, but for now, we’ll remain quite warm with high temperatures approaching or even slightly surpassing the 90 degree mark both today and tomorrow. By early next week, temperatures will be much closer to 80 degrees for highs compared to 90, and sunshine should dominate the weather scene throughout the Rockies region to start off the new week.

Video

httpv://youtu.be/bDewjFbyux0

7:00 AM | Highs generally in the 60's for the next few days

6-Day Forecast

Today

Mainly sunny skies after early morning clouds and fog, breezy, a bit cooler, upper 60’s

Tonight

Mostly clear, breezy, possible fog late, lows near 60

Saturday

Mainly sunny skies after early morning clouds and fog, breezy, a bit cooler, mid 60’s

Saturday Night

Mostly clear early, patchy fog late, near 60

Sunday

Fog possible early then mostly sunny skies, cool, mid-to-upper 60’s

Monday

Fog possible early then mostly sunny skies, cool, upper 60’s

Tuesday

Fog possible early then mostly sunny skies, a bit milder, near 70

Wednesday

Fog possible early then mostly sunny skies, near 70

Discussion

A cooling trend will develop today and last into the weekend as an onshore flow redevelops. As a result of the renewed onshore flow, coastal clouds will return for the weekend and the early part of next week; especially, in the late night and early morning hours before sunshine returns for the afternoon hours.

Video

httpv://youtu.be/bDewjFbyux0

5:00 PM | Severe storms now from Fort Morgan to Limon and the threat will continue for the entire area through the evening hours

Discussion

The threat for severe weather will continue through the evening with a tornado watch in effect until 8PM. Scattered severe storms are now moving eastward from Fort Morgan to Limon and more storms are reforming in and around the Denver downtown metro region. Flash flooding is also a concern given the saturated grounds in many sections as a result of last night’s scattered heavy rainfall.

7:00 AM | More severe weather possibilities later today; near 90 degrees on Friday and Saturday, but then a cooling trend sets in

6-Day Forecast

Today

Partly sunny, windy and warm, chance for showers and thunderstorms, some of the storms can reach severe levels, low 80’s

Tonight

Partly cloudy, windy, chance for showers and thunderstorms during the evening hours and some of the storms can be strong, lows near 55

Friday

Mostly sunny, very warm, near 90

Friday Night

Mostly clear, mild, lows near 60

Saturday

Mostly sunny, still very warm, windy, near 90

Sunday

Mostly sunny, not quite as warm, low 80’s

Monday

Partly sunny, even cooler, maybe a thunderstorm, upper 70's

Tuesday

Partly sunny, maybe a shower or thunderstorm, near 80

Discussion

There are signs for cooler weather to return to the Rockies late this weekend and early next week, but for now we’ll remain quite warm and high temperatures should reach the low 80’s today and then near or slightly above 90 degrees on Friday and Saturday. Scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening and some of the storms can reach severe levels as was the case last night across the front range. By early next week, temperatures will be closer to 80 degrees for highs compared to the 90 degree mark that is likely for tomorrow and Saturday.

Video

httpv://youtu.be/JKTQxZcbjyw

7:00 AM | Cooling trend sets in for the weekend

6-Day Forecast

Today

Mainly sunny skies, breezy, but as windy as yesterday, low 70's

Tonight

Mostly clear, breezy, possible fog late, lows near 60

Friday

Mainly sunny skies after early morning fog, breezy, a bit cooler, upper 60’s

Friday Night

Mostly clear early, patchy fog late, near 60

Saturday

Fog possible early then mostly sunny skies, cooler, mid 60’s

Sunday

Fog possible early then mostly sunny skies, cool, mid-to-upper 60’s

Monday

Fog possible early then mostly sunny skies, a bit milder, low 70’s

Tuesday

Fog possible early then mostly sunny skies, low 70’s

Discussion

Yesterday’s gusty winds will relax somewhat today and temperatures should reach the 70's this afternoon. After that, however, a cooling trend will develop into the weekend as an onshore flow redevelops. As a result of the renewed onshore flow, coastal clouds will return for the weekend; especially, in the late night and early morning hours before copious amounts of sunshine return for the afternoon hours.

Video

httpv://youtu.be/JKTQxZcbjyw