2:50 PM | Tropical season may still have an active period left in it

Discussion

The Atlantic tropical basin has been rather quiet during the last few weeks, but it appears as if there may be more action before the season winds down for good, and this is certainly not too surprising. While the climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season has indeed passed by in mid-September, there is often a second pulse of tropical storms during the month of October. There are a couple of possible meteorological reasons as to why there is often a second max of tropical storms during October. The first has to do with the fact that there are frontal systems that can now make their way all the down to the Gulf of Mexico or to the Southeast US coastline after having great difficulty of doing this during the summer months. Frontal systems in the Deep South tend to spawn thunderstorms and these can, under the right circumstances, gradually develop into tropical systems. Additionally, there tends to be more frequent large high pressure systems near or off the US east coast during this time of year and the large-scale circulation around these systems can help to spin up tropical storms to their south and east over the still warm Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico waters.

As it turns out, the latter part of the upcoming weekend will feature a strong, large high pressure system along the east coast and this system will have to be watched early next week to see if it acts to help promote the growth of a tropical system. There are currently two areas of interest in the tropics with the first being near the Bahamas and the second system will move over the Caribbean Sea this weekend and it could cause some heavy rainfall in Puerto Rico later this weekend. Also, a third tropical wave has just moved off of the western African coast and it too will have to be watched over the next several days.

By the way, the strongest winds ever recorded at Philadelphia International Airport, 94 mph, occurred during October 1954 as Hurricane Hazel passed to the west.

7:00 AM | Warmer weather for a change after a chilly start

6-Day Forecast

Today

Mostly sunny, warmer today after a chilly start, highs in the low 70’s

Tonight

Mostly clear, cool, lows by morning in the mid 40’s

Thursday

Mostly sunny, pleasant, near 70

Thursday Night

Partly cloudy, cool, mid 40’s

Friday

Partly sunny, not quite as mild, chance for a shower or thunderstorm, mid-to-upper 60’s

Saturday

Partly sunny, cool, breezy, chance for a shower and thunderstorm, mid 60’s

Sunday

Partly sunny, cool, mid 60’s

Monday

Mainly sunny, cool, mid 60’s

Discussion

Upper level high pressure will move over the region today at the same time an upper level cutoff low will heads from the California coast towards Nevada. This activity will likely bring some warmer air into the region along with relatively dry conditions. Later this week, the upper level low will be close enough to the central Rockies to increase our chances for showers and thunderstorms.

Video

httpv://youtu.be/Vv8uBkZEUuE

7:00 AM | Threat for showers and thunderstorms from later today through tomorrow night as upper low spins overhead

6-Day Forecast

Today

Partly sunny skies, breezy, cool, chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms, highs in the mid-to-upper 60’s

Tonight

Mostly cloudy, cool, breezy, chance for showers and thunderstorms, near 60

Thursday

Mostly cloudy, cool, breezy, chance for showers and thunderstorms, mid 60’s

Thursday Night

Mostly cloudy, breezy, cool, possible showers, maybe a thunderstorm, near 60

Friday

Mostly sunny skies, cool, mid-to-upper 60’s

Saturday

Mostly sunny skies, not as cool, highs near 70

Sunday

Mostly sunny skies, noticeably warmer, upper 70’s

Monday

Mostly sunny skies, warm, upper 70’s

Discussion

A strong upper level low pressure system will bring cooler-than-normal weather around here for the rest of the work week and it will raise the chances considerably for showers and thunderstorms from later today through tomorrow night. In fact, with the cold air that is expected in the upper part of the atmosphere, some of the thunderstorms that do form could contain hail and brief heavy downpours over the next 36 hours or so. The threat for showers will diminish late this week and then temperatures will begin a noticeable warming trend during the latter part of the weekend.

Video

httpv://youtu.be/Vv8uBkZEUuE

11:45 AM | Weather delays sky diver attempt to break sound barrier

Discussion

Austrian skydiver Felix Baumgartner is hoping to break the sound barrier today in a 120,000 foot jump over New Mexico, but so far the weather has delayed the operation. The planned early morning 23-mile free fall was delayed by high winds of ~20 mph about 700 feet off the ground – the location at the top of the balloon - but there are hopes that the winds will calm down later today. The 43-year old former military parachutist plans to take the 55-story, ultra-thin and easy-to-tear helium balloon into the stratosphere for the jump that could make him the first skydiver to break the sound barrier and break three other world records. The balloon was scheduled to launch at around 7 am local time from a field near the airport in the town most famous for the rumored 1947 UFO landing, Roswell, New Mexico.

If the mission does go ahead as planned later today, Baumgartner will make a nearly three-hour ascent to 120,000 feet, then jump from a pressurized capsule carried up by the ballon into a near vacuum where there is barely any oxygen to begin what is expected to be the fastest, farthest free fall from the highest-ever manned balloon (these are the three other world records). The altitude record currently is held by Joe Kittinger who jumped from 19.5 miles in 1960 and reached a speed of 614 mph. After jumping from 120,000 feet, Baumgartner expects to hit a speed of 690 mph before activating his parachute at about 5000 feet above the ground in southeastern New Mexico. The total jump should take about 10 minutes.

At 23 miles up, "Fearless Felix" as he is known, will jump through the stratosphere into the troposphere. Temperatures can be as low as -90 degrees F at the top of the troposphere, but actually a bit warmer where the jump begins in the stratosphere (around -70 degrees F) as temperatures actually rise up there. Baumgartner has made two practice jumps in preparation for this, one from 15 miles up in March and another from 18 miles in July. The jump was actually originally scheduled for yesterday, but was delayed until today due to a cold frontal passage in the region. Stay tuned.

7:00 AM | Cooler temperatures return today following a cold frontal passage

6-Day Forecast

Today

Mostly sunny, breezy, cool, highs in the upper 50’s

Tonight

Mostly clear, cold, lows by morning in the mid 30’s

Wednesday

Mostly sunny, warmer, low 70’s

Wednesday Night

Partly cloudy, not as cold as recent nights, mid-to-upper 40’s

Thursday

Mostly sunny, not as warm, upper 60’s

Friday

Partly sunny, cool, chance for a shower and thunderstorm, mid 60’s

Saturday

Partly sunny, cool, maybe a shower, mid 60’s

Sunday

Mainly sunny, cool, low-to-mid 60’s

Discussion

A cold front will slide through the region early today and cooler temperatures can be expected. By mid-week, high pressure will build in aloft and this will lead to warmer conditions with highs actually moving into slightly above-normal territory. An upper low off the southern California coast will likely eject northeast towards eastern Colorado by late this week and this will help to increase moisture levels which will raise the chances for showers around here.

Video

httpv://youtu.be/F3N2PEfwLhA

7:00 AM | Mid-week threat for southern California showers and thunderstorms

6-Day Forecast

Today

Clouds early then partly sunny skies, breezy, cool, highs in the upper 60’s

Tonight

Mostly cloudy, cool, breezy, lows near 60 degrees

Wednesday

Mostly cloudy, cool, windy, mid 60’s

Wednesday Night

Mostly cloudy, windy, cool, chance for showers and thunderstorms, near 60

Thursday

Mostly cloudy, cool, chance for showers and thunderstorms, mid-to-upper 60’s

Friday

Mostly sunny skies, not as cool, highs in the upper 60's

Saturday

Mostly sunny skies, pleasant, low 70’s

Sunday

Mostly sunny skies, warmer, mid 70’s

Discussion

A strong upper level low pressure system will track across southern California during the mid-week time frame and this will raise the chances for showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday night and Thursday. With the cold air expected in the upper part of the atmosphere some of the thunderstorms that form could feature hail and brief heavy downpours on Wednesday night and Thursday. The threat for showers will diminish later this week and temperatures will begin a warming trend this weekend.

Video

httpv://youtu.be/F3N2PEfwLhA

7:00 AM | Much nicer day to begin the week

6-Day Forecast

Today

Mostly sunny, much milder than yesterday, highs in the upper 60’s

Tonight

Mostly clear, cold, lows by morning in the upper 30’s

Tuesday

Mostly sunny, cool, low 60’s

Tuesday Night

Mostly cloudy, cold, upper 30’s

Wednesday

Mostly sunny, not as cool, upper 60’s

Thursday

Mostly sunny, mild, near 70

Friday

Partly sunny, cooler, maybe a shower, near 60

Saturday

Partly sunny, cool, maybe a shower, low 60’s

Discussion

The late week and weekend cold and snow will be but a memory today as temperatures rebound nicely and head towards 70 degrees. In fact, it appears as if the next few days will see highs in the 60’s, but these are generally still slightly below normal for this time of year.

Video

httpv://youtu.be/4PZ3Fmuwg0Y

7:00 AM | A relatively cool week with showers possible later tomorrow into Wednesday

6-Day Forecast

Today

Early morning low clouds and fog give way to mostly sunny skies, breezy, cool, highs near 70 degrees

Tonight

Mostly cloudy, cool, breezy, lows near 60 degrees

Tuesday

Mostly cloudy, cool, upper 60’s

Tuesday Night

Mostly cloudy, breezy, cool, possible showers, near 60

Wednesday

Partly sunny skies, breezy, cool, chance for showers, mid-to-upper 60’s

Thursday

Mostly sunny skies, cool, mid-to-upper 60’s

Friday

Mostly sunny skies, cool, mid-to-upper 60’s

Saturday

Mostly sunny skies, not as cool, near 70

Discussion

A marine layer of air developed over the weekend leading to a cooling trend and this general weather pattern will continue early this week. Temperatures will remain slightly below normal levels during the first half of the week and there can be some drizzle or light rain as moisture increases from the ocean flow of air. Warmer weather is likely towards the end of the week as high pressure builds into the region.

Video

httpv://youtu.be/4PZ3Fmuwg0Y

3:00 PM | Some interesting playoff weather and info on the Home Run Weather app "favorability" index

Discussion

The weather is quite interesting today across northern Texas as much cooler air is plunging southward through the Southern Plains and into the northern part of the state. This weather phenomenon known as a “blue norther” around that part of the country will bring dramatic changes in temperatures across northern Texas from highs in the 80’s today to just the 50’s on Saturday. Meanwhile, there is a “winner-take-all” playoff game later tonight in Arlington, Texas between the Rangers and Orioles and the temperatures could drop noticeably during the game that begins at 8:37 PM ET with stiffening northerly winds. In fact, the Home Run Weather app “favorability” index starts off at a 10 in the hour before the game and winds up as a 6 late in the evening as the temperatures drop from the 80’s to the 60’s. Elsewhere, there is a "winner-take-all" playoff game late this afternoon (5:07 PM ET) in Atlanta, Georgia between the Braves and the Cardinals and the weather looks calmer and quite nice there with temperatures in the 80’s to start the game and then likely the mild 70’s to finish (HRW app index is a 10 at game time and holds at a rather high 8 around the expected ending time). Tomorrow's playoff games will include one game in Detroit (6PM ET) where it'll be downright cold with temperatures likely dropping through the 40's, and one in San Francisco where it always seems to be chilly and windy (9:30 PM ET).

7:00 AM | Snow and 25-30 degrees below normal temperatures in the forecast!!

6-Day Forecast

Today

Mostly cloudy, windy, cold, snow showers in the morning, even some accumulations, low 40's

Tonight

Mostly cloudy, breezy, cold, snow is likely especially after midnight, lows by morning in the upper 20’s

Saturday

Mostly cloudy, breezy, cold, chance for a few more snow showers in the morning, low 40’s

Saturday Night

Mostly cloudy, cold, upper 20’s

Sunday

Mostly sunny, chilly, low-to-mid 50’s

Monday

Mostly sunny, cool, low-to-mid 60’s

Tuesday

Mostly sunny, cool, low-to-mid 60’s

Wednesday

Mostly sunny, cool, low 60’s

Discussion

Snow showers early today will bring the first accumulations of the season in many spots and then a reinforcing shot of cold air moves in overnight and more snow is possible after midnight accompanying the arrival of that new air mass. Temperatures both today and Saturday will be some 25-30 degrees below normal for this time of year with highs close to 40 degrees whereas the normal is about 70. Temperatures will begin to moderate some late this weekend and early next week with the 60’s likely on Monday and Tuesday.

Video

httpv://youtu.be/PfIv9cvGUTo