Just a few weeks ago, Comet ATLAS was very difficult to find, but it has surprised many astronomers and has brightened quite dramatically in recent days. The comet is now about as bright now as an 8th or 9th magnitude star which is hundreds of times brighter than astronomers predicted when it was discovered four months ago. There is increasing hope that Comet ATLAS will become quite bright by the time it approaches the sun in late May – perhaps even as bright as the moon.
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The rocket launch that was originally scheduled for late Sunday afternoon at NASA’s Wallops Island Facility has been rescheduled for Friday, February 14th at 3:43 PM and it may be visible throughout the Mid-Atlantic region. The original launch was scrubbed due to a faulty sensor issue which should be resolved by week’s end. Weather can be an issue on Friday as winds will be quite gusty out of the northwest throughout the Mid-Atlantic region. This will be Northrop Grumman’s 13th commercial resupply services mission to deliver NASA science investigations, supplies and equipment to the International Space Station. These resupply missions help NASA deliver critical research to the orbiting lab and increase its ability to conduct new investigations.
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Over the long term, the sun is the main driver of weather and climate on Earth and it is also connected to such phenomenon as the aurora borealis also known as the northern lights, upper atmospheric high-latitude blocking, and the influx of cosmic rays into Earth’s atmosphere. The aurora borealis tends to occur more often during times of increased solar activity though they can actually take place at any time of a solar cycle. On the other hand, there is a tendency for more frequent high-latitude blocking events in the atmosphere during periods of low solar activity and these episodes can play an important role in winter weather conditions across the central and eastern US. The influx of cosmic rays into the Earth’s atmosphere from outer space tends to increase dramatically during solar minimums which we are experiencing at the current time. Interestingly, there is evidence that solar activity plays a role in volcanic activity on our planet. In fact, in times of low solar activity such as during the current solar minimum, volcanic activity tends to rise. Indeed, there has been a significant amount of volcanic activity in recent weeks including the latest eruption in the Philippines.
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Normally, the stratosphere has no clouds at all as it is an extremely dry layer in Earth’s atmosphere. Every once in awhile, however, it gets so cold up there that the sparse water molecules can actually assemble themselves into icy clouds. Conditions for the past couple of days have been conducive to the formation of such clouds as it is extremely cold in the stratosphere over the Arctic Circle with temperatures as low as -85 degrees (C). As a result, there has been an outbreak of these polar stratospheric clouds and some reports suggest they are more prevalent than ever filling up as much as 25% of the sky.
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The sun is currently in the midst of a deep solar minimum and it is about to reach an historic milestone. So far this year the sun has been blank (i.e., no visible sunspots) for 266 days and, barring any major surprises, it’ll reach 269 days early next week which will be the quietest year in terms of sunspots since 1913 when the sun was spotless for 311 days. In fact, the current stretch of consecutive spotless days has reached 29 and for the year the sun has been blank 77% of the time. The current record-holder in the satellite era for spotless days in a given year is 2008 when the sun was blank for 268 days making the 2008-2009 solar minimum the deepest since 1913.
Solar minimum is a normal part of the 11-year sunspot cycle, but the last one and the current one have been far deeper than most. One of the consequences of a solar minimum is a reduction of solar storms and another is the intensification of cosmic rays. The just ended solar cycle 24 turned out to be one of the weakest in more than a century – continuing a weakening trend that began in the 1980’s – and, if the latest forecasts are correct, the next solar cycle will be the weakest in more than 200 years.
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It is time once again for the annual Geminid meteor shower – often the best meteor shower of the year - which peaks on December 13-14 (Friday-Saturday) right on the heels of the full moon (Thursday, December 12). Fortunately, Geminids are rich in fireballs and many of them may be seen in spite of lunar interference. The Earth is now entering a stream of debris from the “rock comet” officially named “3200 Phaethon”. If viewing conditions are favorable - and that is a big question mark - then there could be as many as 120 meteors per hour.
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There is a chance that they’ll be a burst of meteors later tonight as the Earth passes by a stream of debris from an unknown comet. The outburst could last as little as 15 minutes and probably no more than 40 minutes, but it could result in dozens of meteors during a short time period beginning somewhere between 11:30 -11:50 PM. There is no guarantee that anything will happen as only a handful of outbursts have been observed in the past century from this particular debris field with the last one being in 1995 and, as is often the case around here, cloud cover will be a concern.
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A relatively rare astronomical event will take place on Monday, November 11, with the passage of Mercury directly in front of the sun. The jet black and perfectly round Mercury will glide slowly across the solar disk and - given the right sky conditions and a properly safely-filtered telescope - it will be visible in all continents except Australia. The next transit of Mercury won’t take place until 2032. Warning! Do not stare at the sun during transit.
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The sun continues to be very quiet and it has been without sunspots on 200 days during 2019 or 72% of the time which is the highest percentage since 2009. We have entered into a solar minimum phase of the solar cycle and sunspot counts suggest this could turn out to be the deepest of the past century. Low solar activity has been well correlated with an atmospheric phenomenon known as “high-latitude blocking” and this could play an important role in the upcoming winter season; especially, across the eastern US. In addition, one of the natural impacts of decreasing solar activity is the weakening of the ambient solar wind and its magnetic field which, in turn, allows more cosmic rays to penetrate the solar system. The intensification of cosmic rays can have important consequences on such things as Earth’s cloud cover and climate, the safety of air travelers, and as a possible trigger mechanism for lightning.
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The sun continues to be very quiet and it has been without sunspots this year 69% of the time as we approach what is likely to be one of the deepest solar minimums in a long, long time. In fact, all indications are that the upcoming solar minimum may be even quieter than the last one which was the deepest in nearly a century. In addition, there are now forecasts that the next solar cycle, #25, will be the weakest in more than 200 years. Even weak solar cycles, however, can produce significant solar storms. In fact, it was this same time of year back in 1859 when a super solar storm - now known as the “Carrington Event” - took place during another weak solar cycle (#10). The event has been named for the British astronomer, Richard Carrington, as he observed from his own private observatory the largest solar flare which caused a major coronal mass ejection (CME) to travel directly toward Earth. Fortunately, solar storms of this magnitude are quite rare as it would very likely have a much more damaging impact on today’s world than it did in the 19th century.
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