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Blog

Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information

Filtering by Category: Space Weather

7:15 AM | *The next great total solar eclipse on US soil is now just under a year away...Monday, April 8th, 2024*

Paul Dorian

In August of 2017 America went crazy for the first coast-to-coast total solar eclipse on US soil since 1918 and it provided a great opportunity for scientists and all sky watchers. What was referred to as “The Great American Solar Eclipse” took place on August 21st, 2017 when the moon passed between the sun and earth. Total solar eclipses occur somewhere on Earth every year or so, but generally cast their shadows over oceans or remote land masses.  If you missed the 2017 total solar eclipse or it turned out to be cloudy in your particular area then there will be another opportunity in just under a year from now on Monday, April 8th, 2024. This time the Moon's dark shadow, about 115 miles wide, will cross Mexico, sweep northeast from Texas to Maine, and then darken the Canadian Maritimes. 

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1:45 PM | *Total lunar eclipse coming with the next full moon on the morning of Tuesday, November 8th (Election Day)*

Paul Dorian

Election Day on Tuesday, November 8th will not only come on a day with a full moon this year, but it’ll feature a total lunar eclipse visible across the country. This is actually the first Election Day total lunar eclipse in U.S. history and the next such occurrence won’t occur for 372 years according to earthsky.org. A total lunar eclipse takes place when the Earth comes between the sun and the moon and its shadow covers the lunar surface. Eclipse watchers can see the moon turn red when the eclipse reaches the totality phase.

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7:15 AM | *An update on solar cycle 25 and its impact on cosmic rays*

Paul Dorian

Solar cycle 25 began during late 2019 and is expected to continue until about 2030 with a peak around 2025. This current solar cycle is the 25th since 1755 when extensive recording of sunspot activity began. Sunspot activity has ramped up significantly since the beginning of cycle 25 featuring 57% spotless days in 2020, 18% in 2021, and only 1 day so far this year without visible sunspots. In fact, the start to solar cycle 25 has been somewhat surprising with more sunspot activity than most earlier predictions had suggested and this is having an impact on cosmic rays.

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7:15 AM | *The “Carrington Event” of 1859…a massive solar storm and what it could mean in today’s world*

Paul Dorian

The sun continues to be peppered with sunspots in recent days as solar cycle 25 progresses towards the next solar maximum and there can be a couple of minor-to-moderate geomagnetic storms during the next few days. There has been only one day this year with no visible sunspots continuing a downward trend that began during the height of the last solar minimum in 2019. It remains to be seen just how strong solar cycle 25 becomes over the coming months, but even weak solar cycles can produce significant solar storms. In fact, it was this same time of year back in 1859 when a super solar storm - now known as the “Carrington Event” - took place during another weak solar cycle (#10). The event has been named for the British astronomer, Richard Carrington, as he observed from his own private observatory the largest solar flare which caused a major coronal mass ejection (CME) to travel directly toward Earth.

Recent studies have warned that these type of super solar storms may not be quite as rare as once thought (e.g., Hayakawa et al). Many previous studies of solar superstorms leaned heavily on Western Hemisphere accounts according to spaceweather.com, omitting data from the Eastern Hemisphere. This skewed perceptions of the “Carrington Event” of 1859, highlighting its importance while causing other superstorms to be overlooked. A super storm of the same magnitude as the “Carrington Event” in today’s world would very likely have a much more damaging impact than it did in the 19th century potentially causing widespread power outages along with disruptions to navigation, air travel, banking, and all forms of digital communication.

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7:15 AM | *Artemis I rocket launch scrubbed on Monday…next attempt for launch of the most powerful rocket ever built is Saturday, September 3rd…paves the way for a return to the moon*

Paul Dorian

The launch of Artemis I – the most powerful rocket ever built – was scrubbed on Monday at the Kennedy Space Center in Florida due to engine issues. The next window of opportunity for the launch of Artemis I will come on Saturday afternoon, September 3rd, but the weather may be an issue. This mission will pave the way for a return to the moon with the next rocket, Artemis II, carrying astronauts to orbit the Moon in 2024 and then Artemis III to touch down on the lunar surface with astronauts in 2025 or perhaps 2026.

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7:15 AM | *The annual Perseid meteor shower peaks later tonight/early tomorrow…the full (super) moon will be a hindrance this year*

Paul Dorian

The annual Perseid meteor shower began on July 14th and will continue through August 24th, but the peak viewing times will be from later tonight into early Saturday. Unfortunately, this year’s peak time period will come at a time when the moon will be full which can certainly negatively impact overall viewing conditions. Of course, any success at all for viewing will depend first on cloud cover and it appears the weather will cooperate with mainly clear skies and comfortable conditions in the Mid-Atlantic region. The Perseid meteor shower comes every July/August as the Earth passes through a cloud of dust that comes from Comet Swift-Tuttle as it approaches the sun.

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9:00 AM | *An update on Solar Cycle 25...a somewhat surprising start to the new cycle in terms of sunspot activity...the connection to the "Great American" total solar eclipse of April 2024*

Paul Dorian

Solar cycle 25 began during late 2019 and is expected to continue until about 2030 with a peak around 2025. This current solar cycle is the 25th since 1755 when extensive recording of sunspot activity began. Sunspot activity has ramped up significantly since the beginning of cycle 25 featuring 57% spotless days in 2020, 18% in 2021, and only 1 day so far this year without visible sunspots. In fact, the start to solar cycle 25 has been somewhat surprising with more sunspot activity than most earlier predictions had suggested.

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10:00 AM | *The next “Great American” total solar eclipse is less than two years away…timing of the current solar cycle may be just right for studying the corona*

Paul Dorian

It was almost five years ago when America went crazy for the first coast-to-coast total solar eclipse on US soil since 1918 and it provided a great opportunity for scientists to study the sun’s outer atmosphere known as the corona. What was referred to as “The Great American Solar Eclipse” took place on August 21st, 2017 when the moon passed between the sun and earth. The result was a 67-mile wide shadow that crossed the country all the way from Oregon-to-South Carolina. In case you missed the August 2017 total solar eclipse or it turned out to be cloudy in your given area, there will be another chance in the not-too-distant future coming on Monday, April 8th, 2024.

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7:15 AM | *It was during the height of the Cold War and a solar storm nearly sparked a nuclear confrontation*

Paul Dorian

It was during the height of the Cold War and a powerful solar storm could have led to a disastrous military conflict between the US and Soviet Union if not for the early efforts of the US Air Force to monitor solar activity. On May 23rd, 1967, a solar storm took place that was so powerful, it jammed radar and radio communications in polar regions and the US Air Force actually began to prepare aircraft for war thinking the nation’s surveillance radars were being jammed by the Soviet Union. Fortunately, space weather forecasters in the military suspected there might be another cause and they relayed information about the possibility that a solar storm could have been the reason for the disrupted radar and radio communications. As it turned out, this information was enough to keep the planes on the ground and the US avoided a potential nuclear weapon exchange with the Soviet Union.

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