On September 1st, 1859, a ferocious solar storm took place that impacted much of the planet. This ferocious solar storm is now known as the “Carrington Event”, named after the British astronomer, Richard Carrington, who witnessed the largest solar flare from his own private observatory which caused a major coronal mass ejection (CME) to travel directly toward Earth. Recent studies of solar storms have warned that these type of “Carrington Events” may not be quite as rare as once thought (e.g., Hayakawa et al). Many previous studies leaned heavily on Western Hemisphere accounts, omitting data from the Eastern Hemisphere. A super storm of the same magnitude as the “Carrington Event” in today’s world would very likely have a much more damaging impact than it did in the 19th century potentially causing widespread power outages along with disruptions to navigation, air travel, banking, and all forms of digital communication.
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When the sun goes down tonight, go outside and look to the east. The moon will be full for the second time this month meaning this will be considered a blue moon. Typically, full moons occur every 29 days, while most months in our calendar last 30 or 31 days, so the months and moon phases don’t always align. This results in a blue moon about every 2.5 years with the last one occurring in August 2021. The full moon will actually reach a peak at 9:36 p.m. ET on the evening of August 30, but will appear full through Friday morning, according to NASA.
In addition to being a blue moon, this full moon can be considered a supermoon. Definitions of a supermoon can vary, but the term generally denotes a full moon that is closer to Earth than normal and thus appears larger by about 14% than a normal full moon and also brighter in the night sky. The moon will be 222,043 miles (357,344 kilometers) away from Earth, nearly 18,000 miles (28,968 kilometers) closer than its average distance. The supermoon may have played a role with the landfalling Hurricane Idalia this morning along Florida’s Gulf coast as it enhances tides and worsens storm surge perhaps by a foot or so. Because of the supermoon’s proximity to Earth, its gravity has a stronger effect on the oceans.
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The annual Perseid meteor shower began in mid-July and will continue into late August, but the peak viewing time will be this Saturday night, August 12th, into the early morning hours of Sunday, August 13th. And great news for interested sky observers, this year’s Perseid meteor shower peak will come at a time when the moon will be in the crescent phase minimizing any interference and it won’t even rise until well into the early morning hours on Sunday. Of course, any success for viewing will begin first and foremost with cloud cover and the outlook is somewhat iffy in the Mid-Atlantic with patchy clouds possible as a weak front slides through the region. The Perseid meteor shower comes every July/August as the Earth passes through a cloud of dust that comes from Comet Swift-Tuttle as it approaches the sun. This year’s show could result in as many as 50-75 meteors in an hour for an observer given a dark-sky location and clear skies. One final note, there is the chance for a brief secondary burst of meteors on Sunday night in the 9pm to 10:45pm (ET) time period.
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It was during the height of the Cold War and a powerful solar storm could have led to a disastrous military conflict between the US and Soviet Union if not for the early efforts of the US Air Force to monitor solar activity. It was this same time of year on May 23rd, 1967 when a solar storm took place that was so powerful, it jammed radar and radio communications in polar regions and the US Air Force actually began to prepare aircraft for war thinking the nation’s surveillance radars were being jammed by the Soviet Union. Fortunately, space weather forecasters in the military suspected there might be another cause and they relayed information about the possibility that a solar storm could have been the reason for the disrupted radar and radio communications. As it turned out, this information was enough to keep the planes on the ground and the US avoided a potential nuclear weapon exchange with the Soviet Union.
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Solar cycle 25 is well underway and is expected to reach its maximum phase sometime in the latter part of 2024 or early 2025. In recent days, solar cycle 25 has been quite active with numerous sunspots and coronal mass ejections aimed right at the Earth’s upper atmosphere. It was this same time of year in 1921 that the most intense geomagnetic storm of the 20th Century took place during solar cycle 15. That storm 102 years ago occurred in a 3-day period from May 13-15 and it was before there was widespread electrical dependence of infrastructure that we have in today’s world. The impact, however, was still quite extensive from an extraordinarily powerful coronal mass ejection. The storm’s electrical current sparked a number of fires around the world including one near the Grand Central Terminal in New York City. In addition, auroras appeared throughout the eastern US creating brightly lit nighttime skies and telegraph service virtually stopped in its tracks due to blown fuses and damaged equipment. Research in recent years has suggested that this super solar storm of May 1921 was equally as intense as the granddaddy of all super storms in recorded history – the “Carrington Event of 1859”.
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In August of 2017 America went crazy for the first coast-to-coast total solar eclipse on US soil since 1918 and it provided a great opportunity for scientists and all sky watchers. What was referred to as “The Great American Solar Eclipse” took place on August 21st, 2017 when the moon passed between the sun and earth. Total solar eclipses occur somewhere on Earth every year or so, but generally cast their shadows over oceans or remote land masses. If you missed the 2017 total solar eclipse or it turned out to be cloudy in your particular area then there will be another opportunity in just under a year from now on Monday, April 8th, 2024. This time the Moon's dark shadow, about 115 miles wide, will cross Mexico, sweep northeast from Texas to Maine, and then darken the Canadian Maritimes.
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There will be a rocket launch early tonight at NASA’s Wallops Island facility and it should be visible in much of the Mid-Atlantic region. The launch window begins at 6pm and the weather should be very favorable with moderate winds (and far less than yesterday) and clear-to-partly cloudy skies.
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Election Day on Tuesday, November 8th will not only come on a day with a full moon this year, but it’ll feature a total lunar eclipse visible across the country. This is actually the first Election Day total lunar eclipse in U.S. history and the next such occurrence won’t occur for 372 years according to earthsky.org. A total lunar eclipse takes place when the Earth comes between the sun and the moon and its shadow covers the lunar surface. Eclipse watchers can see the moon turn red when the eclipse reaches the totality phase.
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Solar cycle 25 began during late 2019 and is expected to continue until about 2030 with a peak around 2025. This current solar cycle is the 25th since 1755 when extensive recording of sunspot activity began. Sunspot activity has ramped up significantly since the beginning of cycle 25 featuring 57% spotless days in 2020, 18% in 2021, and only 1 day so far this year without visible sunspots. In fact, the start to solar cycle 25 has been somewhat surprising with more sunspot activity than most earlier predictions had suggested and this is having an impact on cosmic rays.
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The sun continues to be peppered with sunspots in recent days as solar cycle 25 progresses towards the next solar maximum and there can be a couple of minor-to-moderate geomagnetic storms during the next few days. There has been only one day this year with no visible sunspots continuing a downward trend that began during the height of the last solar minimum in 2019. It remains to be seen just how strong solar cycle 25 becomes over the coming months, but even weak solar cycles can produce significant solar storms. In fact, it was this same time of year back in 1859 when a super solar storm - now known as the “Carrington Event” - took place during another weak solar cycle (#10). The event has been named for the British astronomer, Richard Carrington, as he observed from his own private observatory the largest solar flare which caused a major coronal mass ejection (CME) to travel directly toward Earth.
Recent studies have warned that these type of super solar storms may not be quite as rare as once thought (e.g., Hayakawa et al). Many previous studies of solar superstorms leaned heavily on Western Hemisphere accounts according to spaceweather.com, omitting data from the Eastern Hemisphere. This skewed perceptions of the “Carrington Event” of 1859, highlighting its importance while causing other superstorms to be overlooked. A super storm of the same magnitude as the “Carrington Event” in today’s world would very likely have a much more damaging impact than it did in the 19th century potentially causing widespread power outages along with disruptions to navigation, air travel, banking, and all forms of digital communication.
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