3:00 PM | Weekend storm threat continues

Discussion

It is likely that an impressive storm will take shape in the southeast US by early Sunday, but it is not certain yet as to how far north and west the storm may come. The computer forecast models are all over the place dealing with this complex weather pattern with some suggesting that the storm will go out to sea well to our south and east (e.g., Euro, Canadian) while others have the storm moving much farther to the north and west along the east coast (e.g., GFS, UKMET). In fact, the latest GFS model run has the storm so far north and west that it suggests rain could dominate here in the I-95 corridor. To provide even less confidence in the current model runs, the GFS and Euro have actually “reversed” in their storm track predictions relative to each other as previously the Euro was north and west up the east coast with its storm track prediction and the GFS was going with the “southern slider” solution. I tend to favor the "Mid-Atlantic" storm track rather than the "southern slider" track based on the current overall type of weather pattern (i.e., positive NAO, no "blocking" to the north). The real question may very well come down to will it be rain or snow or some combination of both in the big cities. The bottom line at this time is that there continues to be a threat for an east coast storm in the Sunday/Sunday night time frame that could include some snow for the big cities along the I-95 corridor, but it is still too early to detail the precipitation type and amounts. It’ll likely take a couple of days for the models to arrive at a consistent solution with this complex weather pattern as there are multiple waves that will ultimately interact to generate this potential weekend storm. Stay tuned.