1:45 PM | **Snow likely tomorrow night into early Saturday…current “very cold” becomes “extremely” cold this weekend with dangerous wind chills…"snow-to-ice-to-plain rain" setting up for next week**
Paul Dorian
Today through tomorrow night
Much colder air moved into the region last night and it’ll stay well below normal right through the day on Friday, but this is nothing compared to what is coming this weekend. Snow showers can break out at any time this afternoon and early evening and anyone of these can produce a quick coating of snow. Another outbreak of Arctic air will arrive tomorrow night into early Saturday and this blast will produce some of the lowest temperatures seen in these parts in a long, long time during the upcoming weekend. In addition, the Arctic frontal passage is likely to be accompanied by snow showers/squalls or even a period of steadier snow and accumulations would be quick given the cold ground-level conditions.
12Z GFS forecast map of temperature anomalies for Sunday morning; courtesy tropicaltidbits.com, NOAA
Weekend
Afternoon temperatures on both weekend days are likely to hold in the teens for highs along with dangerous wind chill values (15 to 25 below) that are well below zero as winds gust to 40 mph. Low temperatures early Sunday morning are likely to drop to near the zero degree mark in the big city metro regions of DC, Philly, and New York City. If NYC actually reaches zero degrees, it’ll be the first time there since January 1994 – Philly dropped to 1 above during that same outbreak 22 years ago. Boston may fall to 5 degrees below zero by early Sunday morning and that would be their coldest observation since 1960.
Storm threat later Monday and Tuesday
After the brutally cold weekend, clouds will thicken up on Monday, President’s Day, and there is likely to be some snow by later Monday. A significant storm will organize near Georgia later Monday and then take an inland track on Tuesday up through the eastern states. It is looking increasingly likely that given the inland storm track combined with high pressure moving off the east coast, enough warm air will push in from the ocean to cause a changeover from snow and ice to plain rain by Tuesday. It is possible, however, that even with a changeover to plain rain on Tuesday, there is a significant buildup of snow and/or ice during the front end of the storm in the suburbs of the big cities. By later Tuesday, it’s entirely possible that places from the big cities along Route I-95 to the coastline jump into the 50’s and experience heavy (plain) rain. Stay tuned on this one.
Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Vencore, Inc.