1:00 PM | **Heavier snow bands confined this morning to region that extended from north and west of DC to southern PA now advancing to the northeast**
Paul Dorian
Overview
In the relatively narrow region from north and west of DC to southern PA, some areas picked up as much as 6 inches of snow this morning while others received little or no snow – not an uncommon result with this type of a system that features small-scale banding in its precipitation field. Specifically, there were small-scale bands of heavier snow this morning that stretched from Loudoun (VA) and Montgomery (MD) Counties to the north and west of DC to Lancaster and York Counties in southern PA and in some areas a significant accumulation took place. These snow bands are now making progress to the northeast and should arrive across southeastern PA over the next couple of hours albeit in a slightly weaker state compared to this morning. The accumulating snow is likely to wind down across the DC metro region over the next few hours as the main precipitation field pivots from the southwest to the northeast.
Near term
The latest "forecasted" radar loop shows the pivoting of the main precipitation field that is associated with coastal low pressure area and an extended trough of low pressure that extends to the northwest from the surface low pressure center. Intermittent snow of varying intensity will continue across much of the Mid-Atlantic region right into the overnight hours; primarily, in areas to the northeast of the DC metro region. Temperatures will hold in the 30’s today and any snow that falls this afternoon will stick primarily on non-paved surfaces; however, in those areas that experience heavier bursts of snow, the roadways will get quickly covered and become slick. The snow will be of the wet, slushy variety.
The latest snowfall estimates between now and late tonight are as follows:
Philly area: 2-6” with the highest amounts generally on the southwest side of the metro region
DC area: nothing more than a coating to an inch or two for the remainder of the afternoon
NYC area: a general 1-3” snowfall in the overnight hours
Stay tuned –changes in snow totals are still possible given the small-scale and dynamic “banding” nature of this storm.
12Z GFS forecasted temperature anomlaies for Sunday morning; courtesy tropicaltidbits.com, NOAA
Upcoming bitter cold and snowstorm threat
It’ll turn very cold as we close out the work week on Thursday and Friday and then even colder this weekend following the passage of an Arctic front in the Friday night/early Saturday time period. This end-of-week Arctic front could bring with its arrival some snow showers and even snow squalls and then absolutely brutal conditions will follow for both weekend days. In fact, zero degrees is on the table for overnight lows in the I-95 corridor late Saturday night/early Sunday morning. Indeed, if New York City actually reaches a low of zero (or below), it’ll be the first time in 22 years. Looking ahead to next week, a storm will threaten the Mid-Atlantic region in the late Monday/Tuesday time frame and it could be a significant snow producer.
Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Vencore, Inc.