12:00 PM | *Accumulating snow threat Thursday night and Friday...70 degrees possible later next week*
Paul Dorian
Overview
In rather typical fashion, March will produce some wild swings around here that could include accumulating snow late this week and 70 degrees later next week. Our mild conditions of the past couple of days in the Mid-Atlantic region will give way quickly on Wednesday to an influx of cold air following the passage of a strong cold frontal system. That front will generate periods of rain around here tonight into early Wednesday and then gusty NW winds will usher in a much colder air mass for the second half of the week. By later Thursday, moisture will begin streaming in our direction from the Midwest and snow is likely to break out during Thursday night and continue into Friday with accumulations quite possible by the Friday morning commute in the I-95 corridor.
Short term rainfall
A strong cold front is closing in on the east coast today and it will generate occasional rain in the I-95 corridor from tonight into early Wednesday. The rain can come down hard at times in the overnight hours, winds will pick up noticeably, and there can be a thunderstorm or two. Temperatures will likely fall during the day on Wednesday from the 40’s early to the 30’s late and the strong winds will continue with gusts possible to 40 mph.
12Z GFS forecast map for Friday morning (blue=snow, green=rain); map courtesy tropicaltidbits.com, NOAA
Accumulating snow threat Thursday night and Friday
By Thursday evening, clouds will start to increase as moisture pushes eastward across the Ohio Valley. One low pressure system is likely to track into the Ohio Valley by later Thursday night, and then gradually weaken as a new low pressure area form early Friday near the Mid-Atlantic coastline region. This coastal low will then intensify during the day on Friday as it pulls northeastward away from the coastline. As a result, snow is likely to break out in the DC, Philly, and New York City corridor Thursday night and continue into Friday as temperatures should be cold enough to support precipitation in the form of snow in the immediate I-95 corridor and points to the north and west of there. Some accumulations are likely in the I-95 corridor by the time the Friday morning commute rolls around. This type of pattern can produce a light-to-moderate snowfall from DC-to-Philly-to-NYC, but there is plenty of time to go before event time so stay tuned.
12Z GFS snowfall forecast map for late week storm; courtesy tropicaltidbits.com, NOAA
Longer term temperature swings includes a major warm up next week
Relatively cold conditions are likely to continue through the upcoming weekend following the late week snow and there can even be more snow or snow showers in parts of the Mid-Atlantic region by Saturday night from a “clipper” low pressure system dropping southeastward from the Upper Midwest. Beyond that, there are signs for a significant warm up next week that could cause temperatures to soar to the 70 degree mark during the second half of next week. However, there are also signs that it’ll turn colder again as we reach the middle of what will be a volatile month of March.
Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Vencore, Inc.