11:00 AM | “Major League” cold front arrives on Friday, April 1st, and ushers in cold weather pattern for Opening Day and beyond

Overview
Major League Baseball opens its 2016 season on Sunday and Monday and many teams may wish they could spend another couple of weeks in Florida or Arizona.  A “major league” cold front will arrive in the eastern US on Friday, April 1st, and it will usher in a colder-than-normal weather pattern for the Mid-Atlantic, Great Lakes, and Northeast US that will begin this weekend and last for a week-to-ten days with multiple cold air outbreaks.  Many home openers on Sunday and Monday are likely to experience well-below normal temperatures including those at the following locations: Pittsburgh (Sunday), New York Yankees (Monday), Cincinnati (Monday), Baltimore (Monday), and Cleveland (Monday).  Furthermore, there may be multiple shots at accumulating snow in the Northeast US during this stretch of below-normal temperatures.  After this period of colder-than-normal weather winds down, temperatures are likely to climb dramatically during the middle of April.

Core of the cold air outbreak headed to the Midwest, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US; map courtesy tropicaltidbits.com

Short-term weather
Not only will we likely have to deal with colder-than-normal weather in the medium term, but the current weather pattern is setting up for downright cold and frosty conditions by early tomorrow morning.  High pressure edges eastward into the Mid-Atlantic region by late today and winds will die down noticeably after sunset.  The combination of clear skies and light winds in the overnight hours will pave the way for temperatures to drop rapidly and they are likely to bottom out at the freezing mark in many suburban locations or perhaps even slightly below.  

After some modification in temperatures by Wednesday afternoon, it’ll turn noticeably warmer on Thursday as a warm front approaches and brisk southwesterly winds develop ahead of an approaching cold front.  Showers are likely on Thursday associated with the passage of a warm frontal system – perhaps even a few thunderstorms in the Mid-Atlantic region – and then more rain is likely early Friday as the aforementioned “major league” cold front arrives.

Monday night forecast map by the 00Z European model with "interesting" low pressure over the Ohio Valley; map courtesy tropicaltidbits.com

Colder-than-normal stretch begins this weekend
By Saturday, colder-than-normal conditions will begin to be noticeable in the I-95 corridor with high temperatures confined to the 50’s.  By Sunday and Monday, it’ll become even colder with high temperatures likely stuck in the 40’s in much of the region and this is the two-day period for many baseball home openers in the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast US.  Beyond that, another strong cold front is likely to arrive by Tuesday and another very chilly air mass will follow for this time of year.

NOAA's 6-10 day outlook for temperatures (valid April 3 - April 7)

One final note of interest, last night’s European model run actually generated a wave of low pressure early next week that heads southeastward from the Northern Plains towards the Mid-Atlantic region (forecast map above).  If this were indeed to take place, then snow could actually be the result in some spots of the Northeast US sometime in the Monday/Tuesday time frame of next week.  In addition, there are early signs from some of the computer forecast models for a potential coastal storm at the end of next week…stay tuned.

Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Vencore, Inc.