2:30 PM | *Watch out for a brief late night burst of heavier snow*

Overview
The next couple of weeks promise to be quite active in the Mid-Atlantic region with the likelihood of multiple precipitation events.  The first event will take place late today into early tomorrow and it should feature rain changing to snow and there can be a brief burst of heavier snow in the wee hours of the morning as a powerful jet streak pushes overhead.  The next precipitation event will take place from Super Bowl Sunday into early Monday and it could include snow or a wintry mix at the onset and then a changeover to rain in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor. Yet another system is likely to push more precipitation our way by the middle of next week and odds currently favor plain rain for that event.

12Z NAM (3-km version) forecast maps at 11PM (left) and 3AM (right) with rain (green) in DC, Philly, NYC early and snow (blue) in the same areas late; maps courtesy NOAA/EMC, tropicaltidbits.com

Details
It has turned much milder in the Mid-Atlantic region today ahead of an approaching cold front, but once that front passes through late this evening there will be a sharp drop in temperatures. Rain is likely to arrive ahead of the front during the evening hours and then likely change to snow late tonight with ice pellets possible during the transition period.  In the overnight hours, a powerful jet streak at 250 millibars will be passing overhead and it can quickly add a lot of upward motion to the atmosphere and a brief burst of heavier snow is on the table up and down the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor.  

Latest radar shows moisture gathering over the Ohio Valley and that is headed our way; map courtesy NOAA, College of DuPage

Accumulations of a coating to an inch or so are likely by early tomorrow, but if this heavier burst materializes, there can be a bit more in some spots. Temperatures should drop to freezing or below by early tomorrow so slippery spots are possible on untreated roadways given the expected snow and with the potential of icy spots forming after the evening rainfall.  After a windy and very cold day on Friday, temperatures tomorrow night will drop to bitter cold levels with low-to-mid teens possible in many spots.  By the way, temperatures for Punxsutawney Phil will be around 10 degrees early Friday morning when he does his stuff. 

Gotta love all Pennsylvania meteorologists...Phil's big day is here.

After a cold day on Saturday, attention will turn to our southwest as moisture will begin flowing northward out of the Gulf of Mexico and towards this area.  That moisture could arrive early in the day on  Sunday and it may be cold enough for snow around here or possibly a wintry mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain before a likely changeover to plain rain takes place from southeast-to-northwest.  Precipitation will then wind down late Sunday night/early Monday in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor and it’ll stay cold through Tuesday. A third system is likely to affect the region by the middle of next week and right now the odds favor mostly or all rain as milder air should push in just before the moisture arrives.

Stay tuned.

Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Vencore, Inc.
vencoreweather.com