12:40 PM | *Snow tonight in much of the I-95 corridor from a rapidly intensifying ocean storm…Wednesday interesting threat to watch as well*
Paul Dorian
12Z GFS forecast map for Tuesday morning; courtesy NOAA/EMC, tropicaltidbits.com
Intensifying ocean storm
Low pressure is currently developing off the Carolina coastline and it will intensify quite rapidly over the next 24 hours or so as it heads northeastward to a position well off the New Jersey coastline by early tomorrow and then east of New England by tomorrow night. Given the fact that this system will not hug the coast like some recent storms, its impact will be comparatively reduced in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor. However, snow is still likely to break out late today or early tonight in the Philly-to-NYC corridor and it could even extend to areas to the east and northeast of the District of Columbia (e.g., Baltimore, Anne Arundel County and the Delmarva Peninsula).
Low pressure off the Carolina coastline at mid-day will intensify rapidly during the next 24 hours; map courtesy NOAA/SPC
Accumulations of 1-3 inches are possible by early tomorrow in the Philly metro region with 2-4 inches possible in and around NYC. There can be some slippery spots for the Tuesday morning commute in both of these metro regions. Farther south, small accumulations are not out of the question early tonight in regions to the east and northeast of DC where some snow is possible as the storm rapidly intensifies. The biggest impact from this developing storm will be across eastern New England (e.g., SE MA) where blizzard conditions are quite likely later tonight and on Tuesday where more than a foot of snow is possible along with 60+ mph wind gusts.
12Z GFS forecast map of 500 mb height anomalies on Wednesday afternoon with a deep upper-level trough situated right over the Mid-Atlantic region; map courtesy NOAA/EMC, tropicaltidbits.com
Wednesday instability
Following the ocean storm, it remains quite cold for this time of year in the Mid-Atlantic region from Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday and the winds will become quite noticeable out of the NW. On Wednesday, there will be a deep upper-level trough spinning over the Mid-Atlantic region and it will be reinforced by another piece of energy aloft and the result could be numerous snow showers; especially, during the PM hours and likely confined to the areas north of the PA/MD border. In fact, this upper-level pattern may become unstable enough for some snow squall activity on Wednesday afternoon and if these do materialize, they could lead to quick accumulations and potential travel issues. It stays quite cold in the Mid-Atlantic region for the middle of March during the remainder of the work week.
Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Vencore, Inc.
vencoreweather.com
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